4th budget

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Alex Kazaglis

Alex Kazaglis

This is an extract from an article written by Alex Kazaglis, an Australian economist at the CCC, first published in The Punch. In it he gives his personal view of Australian climate change policy in light of the UKs recent commitment to the fourth carbon budget.

Julia Gillard must find it hard to imagine coalition politics ever resulting in Government commitments to radically reduce carbon emissions. This week, however, the UK Government, run by a Conservative-led coalition presiding over an era of recession and budget cuts, confirmed their commitment to green the UK economy.

UK Cabinet approved a reduction in emissions to around 50 per cent in 2025 in its decision on the “Fourth Carbon Budget”, which is a level of allowable emissions for the period 2023 -27. This builds on the UK’s previous commitments in the nearer term – the first three carbon budgets.

The carbon budget’s framework puts the UK economy on track to contributing its share to keeping warming to under the internationally recognised benchmark of around two degrees Celsius.

The decision implies that the UK will now have to roll-out low carbon and renewable power at scale, efficient vehicles and low carbon heating technologies across much of the UK building stock by the mid to late 2020’s. In short, the UK`s Fourth Carbon Budget is a commitment to reinventing the economy as low carbon by mid century.

It follows a recent decision to introduce a carbon price underpin to support power sector decarbonisation. This will rise to £40/tCO2 in 2020 and further in the 2020’s – much higher than the maximum $40 price being debated in Australia.

To begin to understand why these decisions occurred we need to look to the unique regulatory environment within which the UK operates, which includes a domestic Climate Change Act and a carbon price.

The Climate Change Act sets an overall carbon reduction target for the UK economy – to reduce emissions by 80 per cent by 2050. The Act then obliges the Government to lay out the pathway to achieve a long-term carbon target in detail, and establishes in law an independent body (the Committee on Climate Change) to monitor and report on Government’s progress. Government must respond to the Committee’s progress reports in parliament on a yearly basis.

These elements help to prevent progress toward long term climate goals from falling victim to the short-term demands of party politics and other influential lobbying. By committing to a detailed decarbonisation pathway that begins immediately, the ability for incumbent Governments to delay action to a time beyond their tenure is replaced by legal obligations to stay on track with their long term commitments.

As the CEO of the Committee on Climate Change, David Kennedy said today:  “We have moved into uncharted territory and are going to be watched closely by other countries”. Australia will be one of those that will have a keen interest in how things develop here in the UK.

Read the original article in the Punch

By Emily Towers, Communications Manager

Nick Clegg was the main attraction at yesterday’s seminar on sustainable growth at Norton Rose.

He used the event to provide further clarity on the role and remit of the Green Investment Bank (GIB).

The Deputy Prime Minister told the audience that they should be in ‘no doubt’ about the Coalition’s commitment, asserting that a ‘quiet green revolution’ was underway in Whitehall.

As proof of this he listed recent commitments the Government has made to this agenda including the £1 billion funding for the CCS demonstration project, the launch of the Renewable Heat Incentive and acceptance of our recommended 4th Carbon Budget.

Mr Clegg argued that achieving green growth will require a ‘green gear change’, whereby politicians take a longer-term less partisan view of policy, and an approach that combines ethics with sound economics.  “Justice must be done between generations” , he said, talking of the onus on all of us to ensure that our grandchildren can thrive in a carbon-constrained world. Key to ensuring growth will be the creation of the right investment climate, and the Government considers the formation of the GIB to be crucial to this.

Clegg used his speech to announce some finer details about the GIB:

  • The GIB is a world-first – no other country has a dedicated ‘green’ investment bank.
  • The bank will be open for business from April 2012, when the first investments can be made.
  • Government will provide £3 billion in initial capitalisation from asset sales. This is expected to catalyse an additional £15 billion of investment by 2015.
  • Early priorities for investment will be on projects related to offshore wind, waste and promotion of non-domestic energy efficiency.
  • The bank will have full operational independence and will be led by a new board
  • The bank will be able to start borrowing funds in April 2015.

The idea of forming a GIB has been welcomed by many working in the sector, including ourselves.  In our recently published Renewable Energy Review, we argued that there could be a valuable role for a Green Investment Bank, both in terms of providing comfort to investors and in the provision of an additional pool of capital for risk sharing. The GIB can best fulfil both of these roles by being a bank, rather than a fund, so the news that it will operate as such is welcome.

However,  we sounded a note of caution and recommended that to mitigate risks, Government should consider allowing the GIB to borrow money from its inception. Then it would be able to capitalise on  a window of opportunity prior to 2015, when the new EMR arrangements will be uncertain, and there will be few proven examples of offshore wind projects in successful operation.

Further details about the way the bank will work are due to be announced by Vince Cable over the coming months. These will be crucial in determining the extent to which the GIB will contribute to meeting carbon budgets.

Adrian Gault - Chief Economist

Adrian Gault - Chief Economist

Discussion at the 9th July meeting was spread over two main topics – the Committee’s report into low-carbon innovation in the UK and preparatory work to inform 4th budget recommendations later this year.

The Committee signed off its report into ‘Building a low-carbon economy – the UK’s innovation challenge’, subsequently published on 19th July. Unsurprisingly, and in the context of current public spending constraints, the level of “low-carbon” spend in the UK – and what to say about it – received some attention. The need for public spend to increase, as fiscal constraints ease, was informed by analysis showing current UK spend is low against main international competitors, and that global spend is itself low against benchmarks suggested by, for example, the Stern Review and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In relation to the 4th carbon budget (covering 2023-27, Committee recommendations due by the end of the year), we presented analysis on commitments under the Copenhagen accord, looking at consistency with the Committee’s climate objectives (to limit global average temperature rise at or close to 2°c, and keep the probability of an extreme 4°c change to very low levels). Delivery of these Copenhagen commitments are being called into question at present, with various reports downplaying prospects for Cancun. But if these commitments could be delivered, and with very deep emissions cuts beyond 2020, our analysis suggests they could be consistent with those climate objectives. Minutes of this meeting can be seen here

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