Committee on Climate Change

In its December 2008 report the CCC advised on the level of the first three carbon budgets for the periods 2008-2012, 2013-2017, and 2018-2022 and set out an Interim and Intended budget for the period from 2008-2022, the Interim to apply before a global deal, and the Intended to apply after agreement is reached.
 
In its December 2010 report the CCC proposed a tightening of the second (2013-2017) and third (2018-2022) carbon budgets.
 
The Interim & Intended Budgets – 2008-2022

In proposing levels of the first three carbon budgets, the CCC followed the EU framework and produced two sets of budgets: the Interim budget, to apply before a global deal is reached; and the Intended budget which should apply following a global deal on climate change. Both sets of budgets apply to all greenhouse gases (GHGs) rather than just CO₂.
 
The Interim budget requires an emissions reduction of 34% in 2020 relative to 1990 levels (21% relative to 2005). It will require an annual average emissions reduction of 1.7% over the first three budget periods.
 
The Intended budget would require an emissions reduction of 42% in 2020 relative to 1990 (31% relative to 2005). This would require an annual average emissions reduction of 2.6% over the first three budget periods.

 
Indicative annual percentage emissions reductions required to meet legislated carbon budgets

Government accepted CCC’s advice, and legislated the Interim budget in May 2009 (Table below). In line with the Committee’s advice, the Government does not intend to use offset credits to meet these legislated budgets. It has legally committed to this for the first budget in the Climate Change Act.

 
Legislated carbon budgets and split between traded and non-traded sectors


Source: Committee on Climate Change

The Government also indicated its intention to move to the Intended budgets in future as part of an EU-wide tightening of emissions targets following a global deal to reduce emissions. The EU restated its intention to move to an EU-wide target of a 30% emissions reduction relative to 1990 (compared to the current 20% commitment) following comparative commitments from other countries, as part of its submission to the Copenhagen Accord in January 2010.
 
The new UK Government is pushing for the EU to demonstrate leadership in tackling international climate change, and supports an increase in the EU emissions reduction target to 30% by 2020. A move to 30% at the EU level would involve a political process involving the European Parliament and the European Council on how the 30% EU-wide reduction is shared across member states.


2010 Recommendations – Proposed Tightening of Second and Third Budgets

In the 2009 and 2010 progress reports, the CCC noted that emissions trends have been influenced by the recession, and may now be in line with the Intended third budget for the non-traded sector, rather than the Interim budget legislated by Parliament in June 2009.
 
Latest projections for the December 2010 report on the fourth budget confirmed that the CCC’s recommended set of measures to 2020 (the Extended Ambition) would be enough to meet the Intended budget for the non-traded sector.

There would be significant risks and increased costs for meeting future carbon budgets if policy ambition is tailored to the lower reductions in the Interim budget, particularly for the non-traded sector. Therefore, CCC recommended that the Government should tighten the second and third carbon budgets in line with the Intended budget for the non-traded sector. The proposed tightened budget required a 37% reduction in emissions in 2020 relative to 1990.


Click on the image to enlarge the chart

Whilst accepting the recommended level for the 4th carbon budget, the Government does not currently intend to tighten the second and third carbon budgets. Its response was that this would undermine the UK’s negotiating position in the context of EU burden sharing discussions.

As set out in the 2011 progress report the measures set out in the Committee’s indicator framework are broadly consistent with the ambition in the Government’s draft Carbon Plan, published in March 2011. If measures are implemented in line with this framework this should result in outperformance of the second carbon budget through domestic abatement. This should be the aim given the deep emissions cuts needed to meet the 4th carbon budget.