Committee on Climate Change

Emissions reductions beyond 2030 will require both a move to near full decarbonisation of those sectors where this is technologically possible, and significant emissions reductions in industry and agriculture (two sectors where radical reductions pre-2030 may prove more difficult to achieve). Between 2030 and 2050, the following further measures are an example of what would be required:

• We have recommended that the power sector be almost entirely decarbonised by 2030. Even so, further increases in low-carbon electricity generation will be required to meet increasing demand from other sectors, for example from electric vehicles and heat pumps.
• In buildings, further roll-out of insulation and heat pumps will be required, and a potentially important role for district heating in those built-up urban areas for which heat pumps are not suitable. A feasible pace of deployment could almost fully decarbonise heat in buildings by 2050.
• In road transport, emissions would fall through the 2030s and 2040s with increasing penetration of electric cars and vans (e.g. with 100% penetration of pure electric vehicles in new sales by 2035, there would be no emissions from these vehicles in 2050). HGVs could be decarbonised through hydrogen produced from low-carbon sources (e.g. electrolysis using low-carbon electricity, pre-combustion CCS or bioenergy). If the experience to 2030 suggests limits to penetration of electric vehicles, there could also be scope for increased penetration of hydrogen cars and vans.
• In industry, we would expect biomass and biogas to provide a major contribution to emissions reduction, as opportunities for electrification would be limited. In addition, there should be scope for reducing industry emissions through deployment of CCS in the 2030s. 
• In agriculture, a long-term plan will be needed to reduce emissions from around 35 MtCO₂e in 2030, given the limited on allowed emissions in 2050. Further work is required to identify the options for additional reductions, and the policy levers needed to ensure implementation.