The 2050 target

In its December 2008 report,  the Committee was asked to advise Government on what the level of the long-term 2050 target for climate change should be. The advice was first published in a  letter to Government in October 2008.

The Committee was asked to provide advice on whether to increase the UK’s 2050 emissions reduction from the then current 60% target. In answering the question, the CCC reviewed the scientific evidence, made judgements about unacceptable levels of climate change, and considered the appropriate contribution of the UK to a global deal to reduce emissions.

The Committee advised Government to adopt an ambitious target to reduce the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% in 2050. The target should apply across all sectors of the UK economy  and would be achievable at affordable cost of between 1-2 % of GDP in 2050. The Government accepted the Committee’s advice and legislated for this 80% reduction target in the Climate Change Act.

Reducing UK emissions by at least 80%, together with appropriate efforts by other countries, will put the world on a long-term path aimed at limiting global temperatures to around 2°C above pre-industrial levels. A temperature rise much higher than this would have a catastrophic global impact on human welfare and the natural environment.

The Committee also advised that a climate change strategy for the UK should cover all greenhouse gases, including non-CO₂ gases and all sectors including international aviation and shipping.

Meeting the 2050 target will be challenging but feasible based on a range of options for reducing emissions in the period up to 2050 including decarbonisation of the power sector, energy efficiency improvement and transport sector decarbonisation.

To read the Committee’s full advice on the 2050 target, download the chapter from the December 2008 report “Building a low-carbon economy”.

Meeting the 2050 target

To achieve the required reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases of at least 80% by 2050, emissions need to be reduced from their current level of 679 MtCO₂e (2007) to 159 MtCO₂e.

Existing technologies and those under development can deliver the required 80% emissions reduction at a manageable cost to the UK economy of 1-2% of GDP in 2050.

The Scale of the Challenge

Source: UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory

Source: MARKAL modelling for the CCC

The 2050 target can be met by

• Decarbonising electricity generation by using a combination of renewables, nuclear and CCS
• Improving the carbon efficiency of transport vehicles and new fuels; using more electric vehicles and reducing emissions through behavioural change
• Reducing emissions from buildings and industry by improving energy efficiency and using greater more heat from renewable sources.
• Reducing emissions from international aviation and international shipping
  
• Reducing emissions of non-CO₂ gases emitted in the agricultural, waste, land-use and forestry sectors.

The 80% target does not mean that all sectors have to reduce their emissions by exactly 80%. If some sectors reduce their emissions by less than 80%, others will have to do more to compensate.

To read the CCC's full analysis on how the UK can meet the 2050 target, download the chapter from our December 2008 report.