Committee on Climate Change

The 2050 target
 
In advance of its December 2008 report, the Committee was asked to advise Government on what the level of the long-term 2050 target for climate change should be. The advice was first published in a letter to Government in October 2008.
 
The Committee was asked to provide advice on whether to increase the UK’s 2050 emissions reduction from the then current 60% target. In answering the question, the CCC reviewed the scientific evidence, made judgements about unacceptable levels of climate change, and considered the appropriate contribution of the UK to a global deal to reduce emissions.
 
The Committee advised Government to adopt an ambitious target to reduce the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% in 2050. The target should apply across all sectors of the UK economy, including non-CO₂ gases and all sectors including international aviation and shipping, and would be achievable at affordable cost of between 1-2 % of GDP in 2050. The Government accepted the Committee’s advice and legislated for a reduction target of at least 80% in the Climate Change Act.
 
The Climate Change Act currently does not cover the UK’s emissions from international aviation and shipping, due to difficulties in working out exactly how this should be done. However, it does require progress in limiting emissions in these sectors to be taken into account when setting the carbon budgets for the other sectors. The Committee has recommended that the Government accept that these emissions be included in carbon budgets in principle, subject to working out details of how this will be done.
 
Reducing UK emissions by at least 80%, together with appropriate efforts by other countries, will put the world on a long-term path aimed at limiting global temperatures to around 2°C above pre-industrial levels. A temperature rise much higher than this would have a catastrophic global impact on human welfare and the natural environment.
 
Meeting the 2050 target will be challenging but feasible based on a range of options for reducing emissions in the period up to 2050 including decarbonisation of the power sector, energy efficiency improvement and transport sector decarbonisation.
 
To read the Committee’s full advice on the 2050 target, download the chapter from the December 2008 report “Building a low-carbon economy”.

Based on an updated analysis of the latest climate science, in the fourth carbon budget report in December 2010 the Committee concluded that the 80% target remains appropriate.
 
Meeting the 2050 target
 
To achieve the required reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases of at least 80% by 2050, emissions need to be reduced from their current level of 607 MtCO₂e (2009) to around 350 MtCO₂e by 2030 and 160 MtCO₂e by 2050.
 
Meeting this target will require:

• Achievement of the 1st three carbon budgets covering 2008-2022. The currently legislated budgets require an emissions reduction of 34% by 2020 (relative to 1990).
• It should be possible to outperform currently legislated first, second and third legislated budgets through domestic abatement. This should be the aim given the deep emission cuts needed to meet the fourth carbon budget. 
• Further mitigation through the 2020s, achieving a fourth carbon budget (2023-2027) of 1950 MtCO₂ towards an indicative target of a 60% reduction by 2030 (relative to 1990).
• Further, more uncertain, reductions from 2030 to 2050.

In addition it is important to remember that while the UK is now committed to keep aviation emissions in 2050 no higher than 2005 levels, and while we have assumed that the same is true for the UK’s international shipping emissions, strong policy action and significant technological development is required to meet these targets. The policies and technologies required in aviation are set out in our Aviation report; those required in shipping will be set out in our review of international shipping emissions in 2011.