Committee on Climate Change

There are alternatives to flying which businesses and individuals may wish to consider as low-carbon alternatives. 

As rail networks in the UK become improved and higher speed trains are brought on track to link the UK with European cities, some trips that would have been taken by plane could be shifted to rail. 

The scope for modal shift between aviation and rail or high-speed rail depends critically on route distance. Our analysis suggests that journeys up to 800km offer significant potential for substitution from aviation to high-speed rail.

In particular, market shares of up to 90% on Anglo-Scottish routes and 60% on short-haul routes (e.g. Amsterdam, Dusseldorf and Frankfurt) may be achievable in the context of a UK high-speed rail line and a fully integrated European high-speed network. 

Projected rail mode share on selected domestic routes in 2050 (with new UK high-speed line) 

Projected rail mode share on selected routes from London to mainland Europe in 2050

Source: SDG (2009) 

It is likely that businesses will want to use videoconferencing to an increasing degree in future, both to save money and time travelling large distances for meetings, and to meet their own carbon reduction targets. There is scope for considerable uptake of videoconferencing. However it is uncertain how far this will substitute for air travel, rather than resulting in a higher level of business interaction with travel patterns unchanged.

Current best business practice suggests that videoconferencing can substitute for up to 30% of travel, but the largest reductions relate to within company communications and similar reductions may not be possible when travel is for meetings between firms. 

Further analysis of scope for videoconferencing to substitute for business travel would require comprehensive data on trip patterns including frequency with which business travellers fly, the purpose of their meetings (internal versus external), the number of meetings per trip, and so on. 

Given current uncertainties, we assume a conservative range from very limited business travel substitution to a 30% reduction in business demand for air travel in 2050.

CCC analysis suggests that: