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Meeting the 2050 Aviation Target
The Committee has developed three scenarios for future aviation emissions. 

These combine different assumptions about rates of change in respect to modal shift (to rail), video-conferencing, technological improvements that can be made to planes, and biofuels. 

  1. Likely scenario: this is based on the demand reductions and carbon intensity reductions likely to be achieved given current policies, investment levels and the current pace of technological advance. 
  2. Optimistic scenario: This would require both: – A significant shift from current policy (e.g. in respect to high-speed rail), and an increase in the level of investment in new aircraft technologies and / or in the pace of fleet renewal as well as improvements in Air Traffic Movements and operations so as to make a 1.0% per annum improvement in carbon efficiency attainable. Progress of biofuel technologies which would make it reasonable to assume that a 20% penetration was compatible with sustainability. 
  3. Speculative scenario: This would require both technological breakthroughs and a significant increase in the pace of aircraft fuel efficiency improvements. In addition, it would require the development of sustainable biofuels which are currently speculative (e.g. biofuels from algae), or an evolution of global population, food demand and agricultural productivity which would make possible the sustainable and large scale use of current agricultural land and water to grow biofuel feedstocks. These developments are assessed today as very unlikely.
The Likely Scenario

In our Likely scenario we assume annual improvements in the efficiency with which fuel is used in planes of 0.8% together with 10% biofuels penetration in 2050. This combination of improvement in fleet fuel efficiency and biofuels penetration implies a reduction in carbon intensity of flying.

Likely scenario (planned capacity) 

 
Source: CCC modelling

  • Under this scenario, the target could be achieved with 55% more ATMs than 2005. 
  • This would allow an increase in passenger numbers of 60% on 2005 levels by 2050 - this is allowing for assumption that planes will be flown increasing numbers of seats filled (increasing load factors). 
  • This would take  total annual passenger numbers from 230 million to around 370 million. 
  • The scenario is based on future capacity limits outlined in the 2003 Air Transport White Paper.
The Likely scenario is based on projections of the carbon price rising gradually to around £200/tCO2 by 2050 and for some modal shift to conventional rail. These assumptions generate a demand growth of 115% relative to current levels by 2050. Under the UK Aviation Target, demand growth of 60% is compatible with meeting our climate change objectives. 

Meeting the 2050 target that CO2 emissions are no higher than 37.5 MtCO2 is therefore likely to require policy measures to restrain demand which go beyond our central projected carbon price. 

The policy instruments which could achieve this restraint include a carbon tax on top of the forecast carbon price, limits to further airport expansion, and restrictions on the allocation of take-off and landing slots even where airports have the theoretical capacity available.

The Optimistic Scenario
In the Optimistic scenario, we assume 1.0% annual improvement in fuel efficiency of planes and 20% biofuels penetration in 2050. This combination of improvement in fleet fuel efficiency and biofuels penetration implies a carbon intensity reduction of around 45% in 2050. 

Optimistic scenario (planned capacity) 



Source: CCC modelling
  • Under this scenario, the number of flights (ATMs) could increase by 80% relative to 2005 levels.   
  • This would allow an increase in passenger numbers of 85% on 2005 levels by 2050 - this is allowing for assumption that planes will be flown with the majority of seats filled (increasing load factors). 

The growth in passenger demand under this scenario would be 115%, meaning that meeting the target would require additional policy measures to constrain demand beyond those outlined in the 2003 Air Transport White Paper and the central carbon price projection. But these additional measures would not need to be as restrictive as in the Likely scenario.

The Speculative Scenario

In the Speculative scenario, we assume annual improvement in the fuel efficiency of planes of 1.5% and biofuels penetration of 30% in 2050. The implied carbon intensity reduction is around 55% by 2050. 

Speculative scenario (planned capacity) 



Source: CCC modelling

  • Under this scenario, the number of flights (ATMs) could increase by 125% relative to 2005 levels. 
  • This would allow an increase in passenger numbers of 135% on 2005 levels by 2050 - this is allowing for assumption that planes will be flown with the majority of seats filled (increasing load factors).
The combination of already planned capacity limits, the demand response to the projected carbon price and opportunities for modal shift and videoconferencing, would produce a demand increase below this 135%. 

No additional policy measures would therefore be required to meet the target. 

Even in this scenario the maximum demand increase compatible with the target (135% increase in passengers) is much lower than the increase which our projections suggest would occur in a world of no constraints (260%).

The high growth in aviation demand which would occur in an unconstrained environment illustrates the high value which people place on the opportunity to fly, in particular for leisure purposes. If the Optimistic or Speculative scenarios can be achieved, the number of flights compatible with meeting the 37.5 MtCO2 target increases. 

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