Committee on Climate Change

Independent advisors to the UK Government on tackling and preparing for climate change

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The Likely Scenario
In our Likely scenario we assume annual improvements in the efficiency with which fuel is used in planes of 0.8% together with 10% biofuels penetration in 2050. This combination of improvement in fleet fuel efficiency and biofuels penetration implies a reduction in carbon intensity of flying.

Likely scenario (planned capacity)

Likely scenario















Source: CCC modelling

  • Under this scenario, the target could be achieved with 55% more ATMs than 2005.
  • This would allow an increase in passenger numbers of 60% on 2005 levels by 2050 - this is allowing for assumption that planes will be flown increasing numbers of seats filled (increasing load factors).
  • This would take  total annual passenger numbers from 230 million to around 370 million.
  • The scenario is based on future capacity limits outlined in the 2003 Air Transport White Paper.
The Likely scenario is based on projections of the carbon price rising gradually to around £200/tCO2 by 2050 and for some modal shift to conventional rail. These assumptions generate a demand growth of 115% relative to current levels by 2050. Under the UK Aviation Target, demand growth of 60% is compatible with meeting our climate change objectives.

Meeting the 2050 target that CO2 emissions are no higher than 37.5 MtCO2 is therefore likely to require policy measures to restrain demand which go beyond our central projected carbon price.

The policy instruments which could achieve this restraint include a carbon tax on top of the forecast carbon price, limits to further airport expansion, and restrictions on the allocation of take-off and landing slots even where airports have the theoretical capacity available.

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