Committee on Climate Change

Independent advisors to the UK Government on tackling and preparing for climate change

You are here: CCC Home >> Sectors >> Aviation >> Meeting the 2050 Aviation Target >> Optimistic Scenario

Sectors

The Optimistic Scenario
In the Optimistic scenario, we assume 1.0% annual improvement in fuel efficiency of planes and 20% biofuels penetration in 2050. This combination of improvement in fleet fuel efficiency and biofuels penetration implies a carbon intensity reduction of around 45% in 2050.

Optimistic scenario (planned capacity)

Optimistic scenario












 
Source: CCC modelling

  • Under this scenario, the number of flights (ATMs) could increase by 80% relative to 2005 levels.  
  • This would allow an increase in passenger numbers of 85% on 2005 levels by 2050 - this is allowing for assumption that planes will be flown with the majority of seats filled (increasing load factors).
The growth in passenger demand under this scenario would be 115%, meaning that meeting the target would require additional policy measures to constrain demand beyond those outlined in the 2003 Air Transport White Paper and the central carbon price projection. But these additional measures would not need to be as restrictive as in the Likely scenario.

Our Privacy Policy

Video

Video
Audio

Audio
New

New

  • © Crown Copyright