Committee on Climate Change

Independent advisors to the UK Government on tackling and preparing for climate change

You are here: CCC Home >> Sectors >> Aviation >> Meeting the 2050 Aviation Target >> Speculative Scenario

Sectors

The Speculative Scenario
In the Speculative scenario, we assume annual improvement in the fuel efficiency of planes of 1.5% and biofuels penetration of 30% in 2050. The implied carbon intensity reduction is around 55% by 2050.

Speculative scenario (planned capacity)

Speculative scenario












 

Source: CCC modelling

  • Under this scenario, the number of flights (ATMs) could increase by 125% relative to 2005 levels.
  • This would allow an increase in passenger numbers of 135% on 2005 levels by 2050 - this is allowing for assumption that planes will be flown with the majority of seats filled (increasing load factors).
The combination of already planned capacity limits, the demand response to the projected carbon price and opportunities for modal shift and videoconferencing, would produce a demand increase below this 135%.

No additional policy measures would therefore be required to meet the target.

Even in this scenario the maximum demand increase compatible with the target (135% increase in passengers) is much lower than the increase which our projections suggest would occur in a world of no constraints (260%).

The high growth in aviation demand which would occur in an unconstrained environment illustrates the high value which people place on the opportunity to fly, in particular for leisure purposes. If the Optimistic or Speculative scenarios can be achieved, the number of flights compatible with meeting the 37.5 MtCO2 target increases.

Our Privacy Policy

Video

Video
Audio

Audio
New

New

  • © Crown Copyright