Committee on Climate Change

The period to 2020

The CCC commissioned NERA to provide a better understanding of the technical and economic aspects of renewable technologies to 2020. The analysis covered the potential use of low carbon heat in reducing emissions, the cost of using the technologies and any potential barriers to their uptake.

The analysis showed that low carbon heat has the potential to deliver savings of around 12 MtCO₂ in 2020 within the domestic and non residential sectors. A further 5 MtCO₂ is available within the industrial sector. This is in line with the Government’s ambition for low carbon heat to account for 12% of all heat demand by 2020. 

The 2020s

Achieving the 12% target leaves around 95 MtCO₂ residual emissions from heat in buildings in 2020. Further work undertaken by NERA and AEA to reduce heat emissions further in the 2020s looked at cost effective options relative to a carbon price projection of £70/tCO₂ in 2030.

By the end of the decade, further abatement of around 30 MtCO₂ heat related emissions is available in buildings, and a further 14 MtCO₂ abatement potential from the use of low carbon heat in industry. Abatement from low carbon heat is dominated by heat pumps accounting for 70% of the level of potential CO₂ savings achieved by 2030 in buildings (see figure 5.10).

In industry, we estimate that sustainable biomass and biogas are the main options, and could respectively reduce 22% and 5% of industrial heat demand when compared to a carbon price of £70/tCO₂.


Click on the image to view large