Committee on Climate Change

The 2020 target in the Scottish Climate Change Act to reduce emissions by 42%, relative to 1990 levels, is ambitious when compared to that of the UK. It is an appropriate contribution to required global emissions reductions in 2020, and is on the path to meeting the 2050 target to reduce emissions by 80%.

The interim 42% target is challenging but achievable under a significantly strengthened policy framework and following a tightening of the EU ETS cap as part of a move to a 30% EU-wide target for emissions reduction.

Aviation and shipping

Aviation and shipping emissions are included within the Scottish emissions targets. However, given that emissions in these sectors will not fall in line with the required economy-wide 42% cut, other sectors will have to achieve emissions cuts of more than 42%.

CCC analysis suggests that cuts in sectors other than aviation and shipping of 44% in 2020 relative to 1990 will be required in order that the economy-wide 42% target is achieved.

Traded sector emissions

Emissions from Scotland’s power sector and other energy-intensive industries are covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and a share of the EU ETS emissions cap can be estimated for Scotland.

Under this approach, traded sector emissions in Scotland would be at least 39% below 1990 levels in 2020, with even deeper cuts if a  the EU moves to a more ambitious EU-wide emissions target and tightens the EU ETS cap accordingly.

There is an important role for the Scottish Government enabling investment in renewable electricity (e.g. through approving planning applications), to ensure power sector decarbonisation on the path to the longer-term 80% emissions reduction target, to unlock employment and other economic benefits, and to support the wider electrification of transport and heat in the longer term.


Non-traded sector emissions

This sector comprises all emissions not covered by EU ETS (transport, heat, agriculture, waste). Deep cuts will be required in these sectors and new policies will be required to deliver these.  CCC analysis suggests that reductions of up to 47% in 2020 relative to 1990 are required in order to meet the economy-wide 42% target.

There is scope for significant emissions reduction through a range of measures to improve energy efficiency, to increase levels of renewable heat penetration, to improve fuel and carbon efficiency of cars and implement Smarter Choices initiatives, and to reduce agricultural emissions through a range of soils and livestock measures.

A step change is required in order that emissions reduction potential is unlocked, with an important role for the Scottish Government given the balance of reserved and devolved powers (e.g. in leading a national programme for energy efficiency improvement, promoting Smarter Choices and electric car initiatives, introducing new incentives for more efficient farming and land use, and so on).