CCC Mitigation Monitoring Framework

1. Summary of outputs

Monitoring maps

For the major sectors, we have mapped the relationships and interdependencies between the policies, enablers and outcomes required to meet the UK’s climate targets. These monitoring maps demonstrate our theory of change for each sector, following the structure below:

• Contextual factors. This row captures aspects that are largely (but often not entirely) independent of Government climate policy, but important for the transition. This includes global and societal shifts, and geopolitical circumstances.
• Policies. Building on the contextual factors, this row lays out what good policy should look like. This will include existing Government strategy where this is sufficient, but also shows other policy interventions that the CCC considers necessary – regardless of whether the Government has committed to them. While we focus on policy given our statutory remit, this should not be taken to imply that other actors are not important – all parts of society and the economy have a role in delivering Net Zero.
• Enablers. Good policy will only succeed if the enablers are in place and the barriers removed. Enablers vary for each sector, but include themes such as private finance, business action, innovation, governance, public engagement, and a fair distribution of costs and benefits.
• Required Outcomes. The Government’s overall sectoral ambitions depend on delivery of numerous specific measures. These are captured here.

The sector monitoring maps form the basis for our indicator framework. We aim to identify quantitative indicators that cover all the required outcomes and enablers. The diagrams provide a structure to help understand where a particular indicator fits into the wider picture for that sector. Although the maps imply a linear relationship flowing from top to bottom, in reality there will often be feedbacks between different levels. We also allow some flexibility in allocating indicators to the four categories above, focusing on including what we consider to be important rather than only what fits neatly within these categories.

Monitoring maps

Indicators of progress

As focus continues to shift towards delivery, our quantitative indicators of progress will become an increasingly central aspect of our monitoring framework. We have compiled a wide-ranging set of indicators to measure real-world progress (Table 1.1).

• Where the available data allow, we track not only deployment rates of key technologies, but also the scale-up of supply chains to support this.
• We continue to monitor demand-side variables across all sectors and are expanding these to include public engagement and sentiment towards various aspects of the Net Zero transition.
• Achieving Net Zero not only involves introducing new technologies, but also relies on ending practices that are harmful to the climate. This is also captured in our indicators.

Our indicator framework adheres to our sector monitoring maps. In choosing specific indicators, we have drawn on the strong criteria outlined by the Scottish Government, in their Climate Change Plan Monitoring Framework. We choose indicators based on their relevance, and practicality, with year-on-year monitoring in mind.

Table 1.1. Summary of indicators

Download table 1.1. Summary of indicators in CVS format

Data gaps

Here we highlight the data gaps that impede our understanding of real-world progress (Table 1.2). This list is intended to signal to the ONS and relevant departments where monitoring can be improved. These are expanded on in the sectoral chapters.

Quantitative indicators on their own do not capture the full complexity of the societal changes required, but they are useful nonetheless. Areas such as the relationship between central and local Government, and the UK’s international diplomacy are instrumental for delivering Net Zero but cannot be reduced to a trackable statistic. Such issues are complex and highly context dependent, so are addressed with thorough, qualitative analysis in our progress reports.

Table 1.2. Summary of data gaps

Download table 1.2 Summary of data gaps in CSV format

Assessing policies and plans

Policy scorecards

Our policy scorecards summarise the strength of Government plans in each area being targeted for reducing net emissions (either by reducing emissions or increasing removals of CO₂ from the atmosphere). We produce a scorecard for each relevant sector (e.g. electricity supply and surface transport), judging the credibility of policy in each area by asking the following questions.

• Is there a valid delivery mechanism, with clearly defined responsibilities? Ambition, on its own, is not enough to drive deep decarbonisation across the economy; Government policy should include well thought-through and, ideally, proven mechanisms for achieving the changes required. Responsibilities of Government departments, regional government, the private sector, and citizens should be carefully considered.
• Are levels of funding or financial incentives sufficient? Government plans should be clear on how the measure will be paid for, and the combination of taxes, subsidies and regulations should ensure that low-carbon options are preferred.
• Are the right enablers in place, and barriers overcome? Well-designed policies will only succeed in the presence of enabling factors such as public engagement, business action and innovation, healthy supply chains, and a fair transition for workers. Similarly, barriers to success, such as landlord-tenant issues, must be removed or overcome.
• Has a clear timeline been given for future policy development? Some sources of emissions savings are not due to be realised for some years (e.g. significant volumes of ‘green’ hydrogen, engineered removals). Following the Net Zero Strategy many policies still required significant development (e.g. for agriculture, buildings and industry). Across these cases, the Government’s plans should set out a clear timeline for key decisions and policy development.

Once each sub-sector is assessed on this basis, we aggregate the scores to obtain an overall score for the sector. This involves taking a weighted average, using the potential emissions savings from each sub-sector to determine relative weights. Occasionally our judgement is used to moderate the average score.

The full scoring criteria for our policy scorecard is shown in Table 1.3.

What would current plans achieve?

By calculating the total emissions savings expected from existing Government policies and plans, we can estimate the current course of UK emissions. This brings to light any shortfall between the UK’s climate targets and what current plans would achieve. Our analysis is carried out for each sector and is based on the following steps.

• Define a baseline scenario. This tells us what emissions would look like in the absence of any further climate policy and provides a reference point to help us understand the scale of the policy intervention required in each sector. The baseline captures changes that are already in motion, such as planned deployment of renewable energy in the near term.
• Identify the target pathway. This is the emissions trajectory required to meet the UK’s target. In our analysis, we use the latest sectoral pathways from the Government. This will be updated to accommodate updates in Government strategy (such as the 2022 Energy Security Strategy, and the 2023 Carbon Budget Delivery Plan).
• Calculate potential emissions savings. We quantify the emissions reductions, or ‘abatement’, from the various measures underpinning the Government’s emissions pathway. Examples include the rate of uptake of low-carbon technologies, or improvements in energy and resource efficiency.
• Assess the strength of policies and plans. We score the potential emissions savings (i.e. assign them to a ‘score’ category) by assessing the strength of the policies and plans in place to achieve them, and the risks to their delivery. This scoring follows the categories and criteria outlined earlier, in Table 1.3.

The output provides a visual indication of work still needed for the UK to get on track to meet its climate targets. Our scoring criteria are intended to capture the uncertainty around whether the emissions savings will be realised; having four score categories allows us to paint a nuanced picture, while avoiding a false level of precision.

An illustrative example of our assessment is shown in Figure 1.2.

Recommendations

Tracking progress against our recommendations

Every year, we identify clear and actionable next steps for each Government department. We measure the progress against each recommendation the following year. The scoring criteria are as follows:

• Good progress. The recommended action has been implemented in full or acted upon at the required rate to stay on track.
• Moderate progress. Some encouraging steps have been taken, but there are gaps that need to be addressed.
• Some but insufficient progress. Some steps have been taken but they are incomplete or are too slow to achieve the recommendation.
• No progress. Negligible progress has been made. Any steps taken by Government are not credible or fall far short of the required rate.
• Too early to tell. There is currently not enough information available or we have not yet been able to assess this recommendation.

Our recommendations are available in our progress reports, and in filterable and searchable tables on our website (refer to our recent publications).