CCC Mitigation Monitoring Framework

7. Agriculture and land use

Key messages

• The importance of land-use change. Agriculture is a particularly hard sector to decarbonise due to the natural processes involved in producing food. There is limited capacity to reduce emissions unless land is freed up for measures to sequester carbon. The key routes to freeing up land are diet shift away from meat and dairy and improved agricultural productivity, which release land for measures such as afforestation and peatland restoration.
• Low-carbon options. The biggest shares of emission reduction in our Balanced Pathway come from dietary shift, take-up of low-carbon farming practices, woodland creation and peatland restoration.
• Indicators of progress. Data is available for many of the areas we monitor, including woodlands, peatlands, and livestock. However we have identified a number of gaps and limitations, for example in the reporting consistency of agriculture and land use data across the UK, and the differences between the various sources of data for meat consumption.
• Enablers. Critical enablers are research and development, innovation and finance, covering both public and private and blended finance to support land use change. Some data exist for these, but there are gaps which we will continue to develop.

How we monitor agriculture and land use

The agriculture and land use sectors are strongly interlinked in their transition to Net Zero. A combination of innovation in agriculture, land-use change and demand reduction of meat and dairy will be required. Effective changes fall under three main branches, as set out in our Monitoring Map (Figure 7.1):

• On-farm changes to improve emissions intensity. The carbon intensity of agriculture can be reduced through take-up of a range of behavioural and technical measures and productivity improvements to reduce emissions from soils and livestock.
• Reduced demand for (and supply of) carbon-intensive products. A shift away from livestock production, towards crops, which are lower carbon, will reduce overall emissions.
• Natural sequestration of carbon. Reducing demand for carbon-intensive products and improving productivity will also release land from production. It can then be used for land-based carbon sequestration approaches such as tree planting and production of bioenergy.

Given the diverse nature of these sectors and the low-carbon solutions involved we set out a range of required outcomes to track progress in reducing agriculture emissions:

• For agriculture, these relate to productivity and low-carbon farming systems for arable and livestock, as well as energy efficiency in farm machinery and building use. Use of peat under agricultural management also needs to change.
• For land, we track the area of new woodland, and its sustainable management, along with peatland restoration, agroforestry approaches on farms and planting of energy crops.

Achieving the required outcomes in these sectors is dependent on a wide range of enablers:

• Emissions reduction in agriculture will require a high degree of technological approaches and innovation that will need to be underpinned by novel and robust research and development.
• Finance will be required to deliver land-use change at scale and will need to be leveraged from both public and private sources.
• There is also a need to address the skills required in land management approaches and provide guidance in training to ensure this is rolled out effectively.
• Enabling people to choose lower-carbon dietary choices and reducing food waste will require engagement and facilitation. Development of alternative proteins will be important to ensure lower-carbon choices are available across the food supply chain.

Agricultural policy is a devolved matter and currently undergoing reform following the UK’s departure from the EU. Across all home nations clearer policy is needed to support emissions reduction and removal, as well as co-ordination at a UK level. While some move away from carbon-intensive products may occur without policy, it can be accelerated by public policy and leadership.

Figure 7.1 Monitoring map for agriculture and land use Source: CCC analysis Notes: Numbers are from the Government’s Carbon Budget Delivery Plan unless stated otherwise.

Indicators

This section sets out the indicators we will use in our progress monitoring for the agriculture and land use sectors. For each indicator we assign an ID number and identify a current data source. We explain why each group of indicators is important and what we are looking to see in our monitoring. The historical data and, where available and relevant, the benchmark trajectories against which we compare them are presented in the supporting data alongside our Progress Reports. We follow the order laid out in the monitoring map (Figure 7.1), covering the outcomes from the three main branches in turn, followed by the enablers. We discuss policy needs (flagged as ‘Policy’) alongside the most relevant outcomes and enablers, while specific recommendations are made in our annual Progress Reports to Parliament.

(a) Agricultural emissions and farming practices

Required outcome: Reduced agriculture emissions

• The agriculture sector is dominated by emissions of methane largely from enteric fermentation of livestock and nitrous oxide emissions largely associated with soils and manure management.
• We use our Balanced Pathway as our benchmark trajectory due to the lack of information in the Government’s strategies.
• Policy. The Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) in England will provide support for on-farm emissions reduction. Similar schemes are under development across the devolved administrations.

Indicator: Methane emissions from agriculture

ID: AL1
Source: DESNZ, UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics.
Unit: MtCO₂e/year

Indicator: Nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture

ID: AL2
Source: DESNZ, UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics.
Unit: MtCO₂e/year

Required outcome: Take up of productivity and low-carbon farming – Soils and crops

• Widespread take-up of low-carbon farming practices to reduce emissions from crops and soils is essential to meeting carbon budgets. These also have benefits for soil health. Crop yield improvements can deliver productivity improvements on farm, enabling the same level of production with less land and other inputs. Sustainable crop productivity improvements can be delivered through technology and innovation (e.g. through development of new cultivars) and adoption of best-in-class management practices.
• Horticultural products such as fruit, vegetables and salad crops are grown on 163,000 hectares, or 3% of cropland in the UK. Indoor systems such as vertical farming, where crops are grown in stacks in a controlled environment, can raise productivity while reducing the nutrient, land and water footprint. Monitoring data for horticulture indoors is currently not available.
• Synthetic nitrogen fertiliser used on arable and grassland soils results in nitrous oxide emissions. Our scenarios assume these can be reduced through optimal use and use of alternatives such as grass and legume mixes. Indicators for low-carbon farming practices will be monitored to assess trends as they are not directly comparable to CCC pathways. Average crop yields will be assessed against our Balanced Pathway.
• Policy. Each nation state of the UK is developing its own post-CAP policy framework. These will address on-farm emissions, but details on level of support and coverage of farm practices are not yet available in many cases.

Indicator: uptake of anaerobic digestion plants

ID: AL56
Source: Anaerobic Digestion and Bioresources Association
Unit: Number of AD plants

Anaerobic digestion (AD) is the conversion of feedstock by bacteria in the absence of oxygen to generate heat and/or electricity. The CCC scenarios include two types of AD plant – one fed by cattle manure and a second fed by pig and poultry manure, both are co-digested with a dry feedstock (e.g. silage).

• This indicator tracks uptake by UK farms. On-farm AD plants is one of the low-carbon farming practices proposed by the CCC to reduce methane emissions from waste and manure management.
• Policy. Favourable incentives drove a historic spike in on-farm AD in 2014, but the uptake rate has dropped dramatically after the incentive came to an end.

Indicator: Farmers undertaking measures to reduce GHG emissions on farm (England only)

ID: AL19
Source: Defra, Farm Practices Survey.
Unit: percentage

Indicator: Livestock holdings that have sown their temporary grassland with a clover mix (England only)

ID: AL20
Source: Defra, Farm Practices Survey.
Unit: percentage

Indicator: Holdings with a nutrient management plan (England only)

ID: AL21
Source: Defra, Farm Practices Survey.
Unit: percentage

Indicator: Fertiliser use

ID: AL23
Source: Defra, British survey of fertiliser practice.
Unit: thousand tonnes – nitrogen

Indicator: Crop yield (wheat)

ID: AL26
Source: Defra, Agriculture in the UK.
Unit: tonnes/hectare

Required outcome: Take up of productivity and low-carbon farming – Livestock

• On-farm measures to improve livestock diets, health and breeding can reduce livestock emissions while reductions can also be made through better management of manures. Moves towards more plant-based foods should be associated with a reduction in meat production and livestock numbers in the UK, which is important to monitor.
• Emissions intensity of livestock is an important indicator to monitor the impact of a range of measures designed to improve efficiency and productivity in the sector. This will give an overall picture of the range of individual low-carbon actions applied in the sector.

Indicator: Livestock holdings with a Farm Health Plan (England only)

ID: AL22
Source: Defra, Farm Practices Survey.
Unit: percentage

Indicator: Farms using organic manure (Great Britain only)

ID: AL24
Source: Defra, British survey of fertiliser practice.
Unit: percentage

Indicator: Number of livestock – cattle and sheep

ID: AL25
Source: Defra, Agriculture in the UK.
Unit: millions of animals – numbers of cattle and sheep

Indicator: Beef emissions intensity

ID: AL27
Source: Defra, Agriculture in the UK; DESNZ, UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics.
Unit: kilogram CO₂e/kilogram of meat

Indicator: Milk emissions intensity

ID: AL28
Source: Defra, Agriculture in the UK; DESNZ, UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics.
Unit: tonnes CO₂e /litre of milk

Required outcome: Take up of productivity and low-carbon farming – low-carbon machinery and buildings

• Fossil fuels used in agricultural machinery and buildings were responsible for 4.4 MtCO₂e in 2020. There is a wide range of agricultural equipment used in the sector, including tractors, loaders, ploughs, utility vehicles and combines. These can be decarbonised through take-up of zero carbon technologies such as electrification and hydrogen. This will be monitored against our Balanced Pathway due to lack of detail in the Government’s strategies.

Indicator: Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural machinery and buildings

ID: AL3
Source: DESNZ, UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics.
Unit: MtCO₂e/year

(b) Land use

Required outcome: Reduced net land use emissions

• The land use sector is a net source of emissions but needs to become a net sink by the mid-2030s on the path to Net Zero. Restoration of peatlands and afforestation offer the potential to sequester carbon while biomass can contribute to emissions removals through Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). Planting trees within existing agricultural systems and restoring hedgerows can help sequester carbon and provide wider benefits to soils.
• The indicators for this group are set out below.

Required outcome: Peatland restoration and sustainable use

• Peatlands occupy around 12% of UK land area. Organic soils such as well functioning peatland (soils with more than 50% organic matter are defined as peats) can accumulate carbon under water-logged conditions at a rate of around 1mm per year over many millennia. Peatlands are therefore an important and potentially growing reservoir of carbon. Mitigation options cover full restoration (re-wetting) of peatlands and seasonal management through raised water table and sustainable practices e.g. paludiculture.
• Policy. There is funding for peatlands across the UK and these will need to be tracked to ensure they deliver the ambition set out. The Nature for Climate Fund provides support for peatland restoration in England. The Scottish government has pledged £250 million over ten years to support peatland restoration. Grants to restore peatlands are available in Wales and the Northern Ireland assembly has published a consultation for a strategy for conserving and restoring peatland.

Indicator: Peatland emissions

ID: AL4
Source: DESNZ, UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics.
Unit: MtCO₂e/year (in this indicator we report GHG emissions assigned to organic soils from the LULUCF and agriculture sector).

Indicator: Peatland restored

ID: AL13
Source: DA monitoring data (unpublished), Nature for Climate fund (unpublished).
Unit: thousand hectares/year

Required outcome: Sequestration by land use – trees

• Planting new woodland on previously unforested land delivers carbon sequestration as well as a range of other benefits for health and well-being and the environment e.g. air quality and flood alleviation. Land area released through changes in diets and agricultural productivity can be used for afforestation. There is further potential to improve management of existing native woodland, and for growing trees on farm within agricultural systems.
• It is important to plant the right tree in the right place, and this decision should take account of multiple criteria such as local geography, species suitability, future climate impacts as well as constraints such as not planting on deep peat or other priority habitats. Our pathway assumes a mix of conifer and broadleaf woodland to avoid monocultures and to deliver wider benefits.
• This will be monitored against the Government pathway.
• Policy. Funding for afforestation is available under the Nature for Climate Fund in England; the Low Carbon Fund in Scotland; Woodland creation grants in Wales; and forestry grants/grant schemes in Northern Ireland.

Indicator: Sequestration of woodland

ID: AL5
Source: DESNZ, UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics.
Unit: MtCO₂e/year

Indicator: Woodland under sustainable management (England only)

ID: AL7
Source: Forest Research, UK Forestry Statistics.
Unit: percentage

• ‘Sustainably managed’ is defined by the Forestry Commission as woodland managed to the UK Forestry Standard that has a Woodland Management Plan or has been in receipt of a grant felling license in the previous 15 years. Woodland outside of this definition may also be considered as managed.

Indicator: Area of certified woodland

ID: AL8
Source: Forest Research, UK Forestry Statistics.
Unit: million hectares

• Certified woodland is woodland in the UK which has been independently audited against the UK Woodland Assurance Standard.

Indicator: New woodland creation

ID: AL14
Source: Forest Research, UK Forestry Statistics.
Unit: thousand hectares

Indicator: Share of broadleaf woodland planted

ID: AL16
Source: Forest Research, UK Forestry Statistics.
Unit: percentage

Required outcome: Sequestration by land use –  Total energy crop area (England only)

Indicator: Land area used for energy crops

ID: AL17
Source: Defra, Agriculture in the UK.
Unit: thousand hectares

• Bioenergy crops are specifically grown for use in the energy sector, providing emissions savings from displacing fossil fuels (and/or engineered carbon dioxide removal if combined with carbon capture and storage – CCS), alongside any net carbon benefits that are derived while growing these crops. A sustainable UK supply of bioenergy is important in contributing to Net Zero. It is important to monitor land used for energy crops in this emerging industry.
• This will be monitored against our Balanced Pathway due to lack of detail in the Government’s strategies.

Required outcome: Sequestration by land use – trees on farms and hedgerows

• Agroforestry is the integration of trees and/or shrubs on to cropland (silvoarable: trees and crops) and grassland (silvopastoral: trees and livestock). Agroforesty can sequester carbon in the biomass and soils, improve water quality from reduced nitrate leaching into water courses, improve soil structure and fertility from litter fall, increase livestock welfare and enhance biodiversity. Monitoring data for agroforestry is currently not available.
• Historically, hedgerows were used to mark field boundaries. Hedgerows can provide a similar set of benefits to those derived from agroforestry in terms of carbon sequestration, improving farmland biodiversity and shelter for grazing livestock.

Indicator: New hedgerow planting (England only)

ID: AL6
Source: Natural England, Countryside Stewardship scheme.
Unit: kilometres

(c) A move away from carbon-intensive products

Required outcome: Land-use change

Indicators: Land area used for crops and for livestock

ID: AL9, AL10
Source: Defra, Agriculture in the UK.
Unit: thousand hectares

• The Net Zero target will not be met unless there are changes in the way land is used in the UK. Our analysis balances the need to reduce land-based emissions with other essential functions of land including food production. Our pathway assumes land is released from agricultural production through moves towards plant-based diets and productivity improvements. These indicators track land used for crops and livestock to monitor the food production sector against the land areas used for emissions reduction and sequestration in the previous indicators.
• This will be monitored against our Balanced Pathway due to lack of detail in the Government’s strategies.

Required outcome: Production from land

• As land use shifts it is important that the UK maintains a strong food production sector and that emissions from food are not offshored overseas. It is therefore important to monitor production of crops and livestock as well as imports and exports. There are also other products from land – harvested material from bioenergy crops and timber which together track output from land in the UK.
• These will be tracked to monitor trends.

Indicator: UK output of crops (cereals)

ID: AL11
Source: Defra, Agriculture in the UK.
Unit: thousand tonnes/year

Indicator: UK output of livestock products

ID: AL12
Source: Defra, Agriculture in the UK.
Unit: thousand tonnes/year

Indicator: UK output of timber

ID: AL15
Source: Forest Research, UK Forestry Statistics.
Unit: thousand tonnes/year (green tonnes)

Indicator: UK output of harvested material from bioenergy crops (England only)

ID: AL18
Source: Defra, Area of crops grown for bioenergy in England and the UK.
Unit: thousand tonnes/year (oven dried tonnes)

Indicators: UK crop imports and exports: cereals

ID: AL29, AL35
Source: Defra, Agriculture in the UK
Unit: thousand tonnes imports/thousand tonnes production each year

Indicators: UK livestock imports and exports (beef, veal, lamb and mutton)

ID: AL30, AL36
Source: Defra, Agriculture in the UK
Unit: thousand tonnes production exported each year (dressed carcass weight)

Required outcome: Demand reduction

• Alongside changes in UK production of food products, there needs to be a change in consumption as people shift to choosing lower-carbon plant-based alternatives to meat and dairy products. Changes in food waste can also improve efficiency of food production, requiring less land for the same output. The food production sector also needs to ensure that alternative protein products are available at affordable prices to consumers. As these shifts happen, it is important to monitor consumption emissions from food, to ensure that the UK does not import higher-carbon products from overseas.
• The recommended daily protein consumption is 55.5 grams per person for adult men and 45 grams per person for adult women based on the Dietary Reference Values. Current consumption of protein in the UK is on average significantly above these levels. Modelling by Oxford University of Public Health’s Eatwell Guide, the Government’s official guide to achieving a healthy and balanced diet, estimates that meeting the Guide would require an average reduction in the consumption of meat by around 89% for beef, 66% for pork and 63% for lamb, and a 20% reduction in dairy products. The CCC Balanced pathway assumes that consumption of dairy reduces by 20% by 2050 but that the reduction in meat consumption is lower than that modelled by this study: 20% by 2030 and 35% by 2050.
• These will be monitored against our Balanced Pathway as diet change and food waste are not considered in the Government’s strategies.

Indicator: Consumption of meat

ID: AL31
Source: PHE, National diets and Nutrition Survey.
Unit: g/person/week

Indicators: UK ruminant meat availability – Beef

ID:  AL58
Source: Defra, Agriculture in the UK
Unit:  thousand tonnes available (domestic production minus exports plus imports) for UK market

Indicators: UK ruminant meat availability – Lamb

ID:  AL59
Source: Defra, Agriculture in the UK
Unit:  thousand tonnes available (domestic production minus exports plus imports) for UK market

Indicator: Consumption of dairy

ID: AL32
Source: PHE, National diets and Nutrition Survey.
Unit: g/person/week

Indicator: Consumption of plant-based alternative foods

ID: AL34
Source: PHE, National diets and Nutrition Survey.
Unit: percentage

Indicator: Total food waste

ID: AL33
Source: WRAP, Food and surplus waste in the UK.
Unit: thousand tonnes

Indicator: UK agricultural and LULUCF consumption emissions

ID: AL37
Source: Defra, UK’s carbon footprint.
Unit: MtCO₂e/year

(d) Enablers

Enablers: Research and Innovation

• UK farm productivity growth has lagged behind other developed countries, and in recent years has remained flat. Research and innovation are needed to improve agricultural productivity and in the food sector more widely. Key areas where this will be important are:
  • Improving crop yields through breeding and selection that lead to higher yields through development of new cultivars /traits and ensure the next generation crops are resilient to a warmer climate.
  • Innovation to enable better livestock breeding, diets and health.
  • Growing horticulture products indoors where yields are higher and other inputs lower.
  • Development of alternative proteins for the food and drink sector and ensuring these are available at affordable prices.
  • Development of products from paludiculture.
  • Improving tree and biomass crop productivity and ensuring species are suitable for changing climatic conditions in the UK.
• We will continue to work to develop indicators in this area.

Enablers: Just transition

• The transition to Net Zero and consequent changes to the way land is used will affect output and employment in the sector. There will be an increase in employment required for afforestation and peatland restoration. It will also see significant changes in the skills required and type of employment in the UK’s agricultural sector as waste and meat/dairy consumption are reduced and farming practices are made more productive.
• Policy. Replacement of the CAP by the Environmental Land Management System in England and other schemes in the devolved administrations will determine how public money is allocated to agriculture. This will affect different groups of farmers differently, depending on how funding is allocated, which will be important to monitor.
• We will continue to work to develop indicators in this area.

Enablers: Skills and workforce

• The transition to Net Zero in the agriculture and land use sectors will be associated with different skills requirements. There is likely to be an increase in demand for agronomists, ecologists, arboriculture officers and forestry and peatland restoration experts. A move towards low-carbon farming practices for crops and livestock will mean farmers will need to acquire new skills and knowledge of alternative ways of farming. The decline in some sub-sectors such as livestock and greater focus on protein crops will also affect demand for skills and employment in the sector.
• We will continue to work to develop indicators in this area.

Enablers: Finance

• Delivering Net Zero in land will require significant financial investment, particularly as some key measures such as afforestation and peatland restoration have high upfront costs and uncertain and/or long payback periods. Public and private finance can be used to unlock some of these barriers and bring forward the level of investment needed in this sector.
• The woodland and peatland code schemes provide private finance for these measures and can be monitored currently. While offsets markets are being developed for a range of nature-based solutions, these are in their infancy, and we will continue to monitor them to further develop indicators in this area.

Indicator: Private finance schemes: peatland code

ID: AL38
Source: IUCN, Peatland code.
Unit: thousand hectares

Indicator: Private finance schemes: woodland code

ID: AL39
Source: Forest Research, UK Forestry Statistics.
Unit: thousand hectares/year

Enablers: Sustainable food chain

• A sustainable food supply chain – from farmers to food manufacturers, processors and supermarkets will support delivery of Net Zero through improving the carbon footprint of their products. Some supermarkets are already working in partnership to reduce the environmental impact of their food products.
• Our pathway relies on a switch away from high-carbon meat and dairy towards plant-based alternative proteins, but there is lack of relevant UK data on the supply of these across the food chain.
• We will continue to monitor the development of common metrics and standards and mandatory reporting of emissions in the wider food supply sector, and availability of alternative proteins and develop indicators where possible.

Enablers: Engagement and behaviour

• Meeting Net Zero will require greater involvement of people engaging with reducing emissions. The transition in agriculture and land use requires farmers to change the way land is used and individuals to choose lower-carbon foods. It is important to build trust and buy-in to the actions required, and that policy take account of the views of people in this process. Survey data can be used to track people’s attitudes to key measures over time.

Indicator: Do you do any of these things: eat less meat

ID: AL40
Source: DESNZ, Public attitudes tracker.
Unit: percentage

Indicator: Do you do any of these things: eat less dairy

ID: AL41
Source: DESNZ, Public attitudes tracker.
Unit: percentage

Indicator: Proportion of farmers considering greenhouse gases to be either fairly or very important when taking decisions about their land, crops and livestock

ID: AL42
Source: Defra, Farm Practices Survey.
Unit: percentage

Future improvements

Data availability and gaps

We have identified a number of limitations and data gaps for this sector (see table 1.2 in chapter 1).

• As much of policy in the sector is devolved, there are also issues around consistency of data across the devolved administrations (e.g. for on-farm abatement measures). This should improve as the post-CAP payment system and monitoring is implemented across the devolved administrations.
• Food waste data is currently collected by WRAP every three years, but ideally it would be available annually. We would like Government to report on food waste reduction trends as part of its waste statistics.
• Other data gaps include agroforestry, paludiculture (farming under a raised water level), slurry and manure management, indoor horticulture, and livestock feeding regimes.

Future updates to the indicator framework

Our approach for monitoring progress in the agriculture and land use sectors is evolving. Future updates will seek to achieve consistency in indicators to capture contributions across the UK, including all the devolved administration areas where appropriate. As well as the gaps identified above, we have not been able to identify useful and available metrics to monitor many of the enablers, such as just transition, R&D and innovation, skills and workforce and sustainable food chain.

We have begun to assess data on meat availability, which is the total meat produced in the UK minus exports plus imports. The trend in this dataset shows no significant change between 2009-2019 for beef availability and a marginal increase in lamb availability. However, self-reported lamb and beef consumption data shows a decline over this period. We plan to undertake further analysis to understand the disparity between these two datasets.