Met Office for the ASC: Developing H++ climate change scenarios

The Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC) of the Committee on Climate Change has been asked by the Government to lead the next UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. An ASC Evidence Report will be published in July 2016, before the final Government report is presented to Parliament in 2017. The ASC has commissioned four research projects to inform its 2016 assessment.

This report describes the results of a project to investigate the development of plausible high-end climate change scenarios. It covers the following climate hazards: heat waves, cold snaps, low and high rainfall, droughts, floods and windstorms. The scope of the project does not extend into defining the consequences of these hazards such as mortality, property damage or impacts on the natural environment.

The scenarios created for this report are referred to as H++ scenarios, and are typically more extreme climate change scenarios on the margins or outside of the 10th to 90th percentile range presented in the 2009 UK climate change projections (also known as ‘UKCP09’).

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