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Developing H++ climate change scenarios (Met Office)

This research was commissioned to accompany the Adaptation Sub-Committee’s 2017 Climate Change Risk Assessment evidence report. The project investigated the development of plausible ‘high-end’ climate change scenarios, referred to as H++ scenarios, which are typically extreme climate change scenarios on the margins or outside of the 10th to 90th percentile range presented in the 2009 UK climate change projections (also known as ‘UKCP09’).

It covers the following climate hazards:

  • heat waves
  • cold snaps
  • low and high rainfall
  • droughts
  • floods
  • windstorms

The scope of the project does not extend to defining the consequences of these hazards such as mortality, property damage or impacts on the natural environment.