Sayers for the ASC: Projections of future flood risk in the UK

The Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC) of the Committee on Climate Change has been asked by the Government to lead the next UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. An Evidence Report will be published in July 2016, before the final Government report is presented to Parliament in 2017. The ASC commissioned four research projects to inform the assessment.

This research project considers projections of future flood risk for the UK. It finds that significant additional investment and adaptation action will be needed to counter the increase in UK flood risk projected under a 2°C rise in global mean temperatures. It also finds that even the most ambitious adaptation scenarios will not be able to avoid the large increase in UK flood risk implied by a 4°C rise in global temperatures. Long stretches of current coastal flood defence structures in England will become highly vulnerable to failure as sea levels rise, making it increasingly more difficult and costly to manage the risk of widespread coastal inundation.