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Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022

The UK Government is required, under the 2008 Climate Change Act, to publish a climate change risk assessment (CCRA) every five years. The assessment sets out the risks and opportunities facing the UK from climate change. The first risk assessment was published in 2012, and the second in 2017. The third is due in 2022. The CCRA provides the evidence base to inform Government-led national adaptation programmes in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The Adaptation Committee of the Climate Change Committee has a legal duty to advise Government on the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA). The CCC prepared the second Climate Change Risk Assessment evidence report in 2016, and is now working on an updated evidence report, due to be published in summer 2021, which will inform the UK Government’s third CCRA (known as CCRA3).

A new UK Climate Risk website

  • A new UK Climate Risk website will host all of the outputs for the Evidence Report, from technical chapters through to the research projects through to summaries of the advice. https://www.ukclimaterisk.org/
  • Over 450 people from more than 130 organisations are contributing to the third Climate Change Risk Assessment evidence report. A full list of the organisations can be found on the UK Climate Risk website here.

Contributors and research projects

The University of Exeter is leading a consortium of experts who are preparing the ‘technical chapters’ for the Evidence Report. The technical chapters cover the underlying analysis and assessment of the level of risk or opportunity across the natural environment, infrastructure, people, business and international dimensions.  The chapters will also set out the latest understanding of current and future climate change in the UK, and the CCRA method.

Work on this part of the project is taking place between summer 2018 and winter 2020. The CCC will then produce its own synthesis report which summarises the technical chapters and provides the Committee’s advice to Government on adaptation priorities for the next five years.

The CCC is also preparing six research projects to feed into the technical chapters, with funding from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra); the Devolved Administrations; the Natural Environment Research Council; the Economic and Social Research Council; and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. All of the projects can be found here: https://www.ukclimaterisk.org/ccra-research/

The projects include:

  • Socioeconomic dimensions: led by Cambridge Econometrics
  • Water availability projections: led by HR Wallingford
  • Flooding projections: led by Paul Sayers Associates
  • Behaviour change: led by AECOM
  • Interacting risks: led by WSP
  • Thresholds in the natural environment: led by CEH