Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017

The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Evidence Report has now been published. Continue reading to find out how the report was developed.

Every five years the UK Government must carry out an assessment of the current and future risks to the country from climate change. The next assessment is due in January 2017.

The Department for Environment Food, and Rural Affairs (Defra) published the first Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) in January 2012.

To inform the 2017 risk assessment, the Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC) of the Committee on Climate Change is working with a range of experts to review published data and publish an independent evidence report of the risks and opportunities to the UK from climate change. This report must be delivered to Government by July 2016. Defra will then use the ASC’s evidence report as the basis of a Government report, which will be laid before Parliament by January 2017.

FAQs for the CCRA Evidence Report are available here

CCRA Evidence Report

The CCRA Evidence Report will set out the latest evidence on climate risks and opportunities to the UK. The following people have been selected to help us write the evidence report, based on the chapters below:

Chapter 1: introductionKathryn HumphreyAdaptation Sub-Committee
Chapter 2: climate science and assessing riskRachel WarrenUniversity of East Anglia
Chapter 3: rural economy and natural environmentIain BrownJames Hutton Institute
Chapter 4: infrastructureRichard DawsonNewcastle University
Chapter 5: people and the built environmentSari Kovats with Dan OsbornLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine & University College London
Chapter 6: businessSwenja SurminksiLondon School of Economics
Chapter 7: global securityNeil Adger with Andy ChallinorExeter University & Leeds University
Chapter 8: cross-cutting issuesRoger StreetUK Climate Impacts Programme


The full Evidence Report will be summarised in a shorter Synthesis Report being drafted by the ASC. Both reports will be published in July 2016.

The CCRA evidence report is being reviewed in two stages. The ASC received an initial round of comments in October 2015 and a final review is taking place in March 2016. Professor Nigel Arnell from Reading University is leading an independent technical review process, and Government representatives will also be asked to review the draft report. The final reports and review comments received will be published on the CCC website in due course.


Read the current version of the method for the CCRA Evidence ReportAll of the comments received on the draft method are also available here

CCRA advisory group

The CCRA Advisory Group was established to provide strategic input into the development of the CCRA. It includes members from Defra, the Scottish Government, the Welsh Assembly Government and the Northern Ireland Assembly. The agenda and minutes of the Advisory Group’s meetings are also available on our website.

Research projects

The ASC, with funding from Defra, the National Environment Research Council (NERC) and the devolved administrations, tendered out four research projects to inform the CCRA evidence report. These projects were completed in autumn 2015.

Project A – Projections of future flood risk in the UK

Project B – Updated projections for water availability for the UK

Project C – Aggregate assessment of climate change impacts on the goods and services provided by the UK’s natural assets

Project D – Developing H++ scenarios

CCRA stakeholder events

In order to gather input from a wide range of stakeholders to inform the risk assessment, the ASC is convening a series of events with a broad range of organisations and individuals. An initial event was held in October 2014 to discuss the methodology. The second CCRA stakeholder event took place in London on 17 September 2015 to discuss emerging findings.

Find out what happened at September’s stakeholder event in this Storify summary

The full set of slides from the second stakeholder event is available here