The Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC) commissioned four research projects as part of the process of developing the Climate Change Risk Assessment. These research projects were published in September and October 2015.
AECOM for the ASC: Assessment of climate change impacts on UK natural assets
In partnership with the University of Exeter, the University of York, Scotland’s Rural College (Dominic Moran) and Ricardo-AEA (Richard Smithers), AECOM was commissioned to undertake an aggregate assessment of climate change impacts on the goods and benefits provided by the UK’s natural assets.
HR Wallingford for the ASC: Updated projections for water availability for the UK
This assessment evaluates the contributing factors for the current levels of risk in water resource planning and then projects these according to a selection of various climate, population, adaptation and environmental protection approaches to 2100. The results of the assessment are provided at two scales: (1) for public water supplies alone and, (2) for ‘all sectors’ (i.e. public water supplies plus agriculture, energy generation, industry and commerce and the natural environment), for the whole of the UK.
Sayers for the ASC: Projections of future flood risk in the UK
This research project considers projections of future flood risk for the UK. It finds that significant additional investment and adaptation action will be needed to counter the increase in UK flood risk projected under a 2°C rise in global mean temperatures. It also finds that even the most ambitious adaptation scenarios will not be able to avoid the large increase in UK flood risk implied by a 4°C rise in global temperatures. Long stretches of current coastal flood defence structures in England will become highly vulnerable to failure as sea levels rise, making it increasingly more difficult and costly to manage the risk of widespread coastal inundation.
Met Office for the ASC: Developing H++ climate change scenarios
This report describes the results of a project to investigate the development of plausible high-end climate change scenarios. It covers the following climate hazards: heat waves, cold snaps, low and high rainfall, droughts, floods and windstorms. The scope of the project does not extend into defining the consequences of these hazards such as mortality, property damage or impacts on the natural environment.
The scenarios created for this report are referred to as H++ scenarios, and are typically more extreme climate change scenarios on the margins or outside of the 10th to 90th percentile range presented in the 2009 UK climate change projections (also known as ‘UKCP09’).