The Sixth Carbon Budget and Welsh emissions targets – Call for Evidence

Background to the UK's sixth carbon budget

The UK Government and Parliament have adopted the Committee on Climate Change's (CCC) recommendation to target net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the UK by 2050 (i.e. at least a 100% reduction in emissions from 1990).

The Climate Change Act (2008, ‘the Act’) requires the Committee to provide advice to the Government about the appropriate level for each carbon budget (sequential five-year caps on GHGs) on the path to the long-term target. To date, in line with advice from the Committee, five carbon budgets have been legislated covering the period out to 2032.

The Committee must provide advice on the level of the sixth carbon budget (covering the period from 2033-37) before the end of 2020. The Committee intends to publish its advice early, in September 2020. This advice will set the path to net-zero GHG emissions for the UK, as the first time a carbon budget is set in law following that commitment.

Both the 2050 target and the carbon budgets guide the setting of policies to cut emissions across the economy (for example, as set out most recently in the 2017 Clean Growth Strategy). The Act also specifies other factors the Committee must consider in our advice on carbon budgets – the advice should be based on the path to the UK’s long-term target objective, consistent with international commitments and take into account considerations such as social circumstances (including fuel poverty), competitiveness, energy security and the Government’s fiscal position.

The CCC will advise based on these considerations and a thorough assessment of the relevant evidence. This Call for Evidence will contribute to that advice.

Background to the Welsh third carbon budget and interim targets

Under the Environment (Wales) Act 2016, there is a duty on Welsh Ministers to set a maximum total amount for net Welsh greenhouse gas emissions (Welsh carbon budgets). The first budgetary period is 2016-20, and the remaining budgetary periods are each succeeding period of five years, ending with 2046-50.

The Committee is due to provide advice to the Welsh Government on the level of the third Welsh carbon budget (covering 2026-30) in 2020, and to provide updated advice on the levels of the second carbon budget (2021-25) and the interim targets for 2030 and 2040. Section D of this Call for Evidence (covering questions on Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) includes a set of questions to inform the Committee’s advice to the Welsh Government.

Responding to the Call for Evidence

• A. Climate science and international circumstances
• B. The path to the 2050 target
• C. Delivering carbon budgets
• D. Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland
• E. Sector-specific questions

It comprises more questions than previous Calls for Evidence run by the Committee, as it includes questions on the Welsh emissions targets (section D), as well as a set of detailed, sector-specific questions (section E). It is not expected that respondents will answer all questions. Please answer only those questions where you have specific expertise and evidence to share.

We encourage responses that are brief and to the point, i.e. a maximum of 400 words per question plus links to supporting evidence, and may follow up for more detail where appropriate.
• You can complete the form on the CCC website by clicking next at the bottom of this page.
  
• Alternatively, please download the question and response form here and then email your response to: [email protected] with the subject line: 'The Sixth Carbon Budget and Welsh emissions targets – Call for Evidence'
  
• If you would prefer to post your response, please send it to:
  The Committee on Climate Change – Call for Evidence
  151 Buckingham Palace Rd
  London, SW1W 9SZ

  The deadline for responses is Wednesday, 5 February 2020.

  Confidentiality and data protection

  Responses will be published on our website after the response deadline, along with a list of names or organisations that responded to the Call for Evidence. If you want information that you provide to be treated as confidential (and not automatically published) please say so clearly in writing when you send your response to the consultation. It would be helpful if you could explain to us why you regard the information you have provided as confidential. If we receive a request for disclosure of the information we will take full account of your explanation, but we cannot give an assurance that confidentiality can be maintained in all circumstances. An automatic confidentiality disclaimer generated by your IT system will not, of itself, be regarded by us as a confidentiality request. All information provided in response to this consultation, including personal information, may be subject to publication or disclosure in accordance with the access to information legislation (primarily the Freedom of Information Act 2000, the Data Protection Act 1998 and the Environmental Information Regulations 2004).

A. Climate science and international circumstances

The Committee’s advice will be based on the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement (‘the Agreement’) to keep warming 'well-below' 2°C and to pursue efforts to keep it below 1.5°C. The UK’s net-zero long-term GHG emissions target is set based on this climate objective. In order to achieve this objective, global emissions pathways rapidly decline from 2020 to reach net-zero CO₂ emissions by around 2050 for a 1.5°C limit (~50% probability) and by around 2075 for the 'well below 2°C' end of the Paris Agreement ambition.

A five-yearly cycle of global stocktakes and new pledge submissions is planned, to increase ambition of nationally-determined contributions (NDCs) and move towards achieving the long-term goal of the Agreement. This is known as the 'ratchet mechanism'. Parties will resubmit their first NDCs (covering the period up to 2030) by the end of 2020, with an aim of increasing mitigation ambition. They are also required to submit a 'long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy' focused on mid-century, by the same date.

Currently the UK’s official contribution to the Paris Agreement is set through the EU’s collective pledge to reduce emissions by at least 40% by 2030 relative to 1990. Outside the EU, the UK would need to submit its own NDC to the UN. This should be based on the pathway to Net Zero that the Committee will develop as part of the sixth carbon budget advice.

The CCC’s sixth carbon budget advice will be produced in the run-up to this critical period for global climate ambition, which will culminate with a conference of parties held in Glasgow in late-2020.

B. The path to the 2050 target

Carbon budgets need to be set on a path that is achievable from today, on the way to the 2050 target. The Committee has previously set out a cost-effective path to the previous long-term target (for a reduction of at least 80% in GHG emissions between 1990 and 2050) that balances effort before 2030 with potential opportunities from 2030 to 2050. The path includes ways of reducing emissions that are likely to be relatively low-cost and actions that will develop options that may need to be deployed at scale by 2050.

The new net-zero target means that:

• The current cost-effective path for decarbonisation to 2035 is unlikely to be sufficiently steep, as it was set on the basis of the previous 2050 target. The path will need to be reassessed in the light of the net-zero target.
• Near-full decarbonisation will be needed across every sector to reach net-zero emissions. This leaves less flexibility on which emissions sources need to be abated and the loss of optionality could increase risks that the legislated 2050 target will not be met. Therefore, although cost-effectiveness will continue to be an important criterion in informing abatement opportunities, measures which keep future options open and increase potential to achieve targets will be of increased value.

Given long lead-times for many abatement measures (e.g. large-scale new infrastructure build out, tree planting) many critical abatement options will have to be in place or well advanced by the sixth carbon budget period, if Net Zero is to be achieved in 2050.

C. Delivering carbon budgets

The UK’s statutory 2050 target requires actions across the economy to reduce emissions. Many of these actions will be driven by (UK and devolved) Government policy and implemented by businesses and individuals. There will also be an important role for Local Authorities and cities in successful delivery, with a requirement for local targets and action to be a cost-effective part of meeting the UK-wide target.

Although the carbon budgets do not mandate specific actions, they indicate the overall direction that policy will take in future. Once set, carbon budgets can only be changed if there has been a significant change in the relevant circumstances set out in the Climate Change Act. Feedback from businesses as part of the Committee’s Call for Evidence to inform the Net Zero advice was that stability is an important and valuable characteristic of carbon budgets.

D. Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland

The Climate Change Act states that differences in circumstances between England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland must be taken into account when setting the level of carbon budgets. We consider as part of this:

• Relevant legislation in the devolved administrations (e.g. the Environment (Wales) Act 2016, the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009) and any associated GHG reduction targets (e.g. Welsh carbon budgets, Scottish interim targets).
• A fair contribution from each of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland towards global decarbonisation efforts and towards the UK long-term target, based on their ability to reach net-zero GHG emissions (which relies on the proportion of economic activity in hard-to-decarbonise sectors, existing infrastructure that will impact decarbonisation in the long-term, the way land is used, opportunities for engineered GHG removals and potential to deliver more speculative abatement options).

Alongside the UK target to reach net-zero GHG emissions by 2050, our Net Zero advice also recommended a net-zero target for 2045 for Scotland and a 95% emissions reduction target against 1990 levels for Wales by 2050. These different targets reflect the opportunities for emissions reduction in different parts of the UK, rather than different levels of ambition.

The Committee is due to provide advice to the Welsh Government on the level of the third Welsh carbon budget (covering 2026-30) in 2020, and to provide updated advice on the levels of the second carbon budget (2021-25) and the interim targets for 2030 and 2040. As such, the questions below are mainly focused on Wales.

E. Sector-specific questions

In developing our analysis and evidence base for past reports (including, most recently, our advice on Net Zero) the Committee has identified a number of evidence gaps in specific emitting sectors of the economy, which are set out as questions below.

Many of the questions below refer specifically to CCC scenarios and analysis developed for the Net Zero advice. Please see the Net Zero Advice Report and Technical Report for further details. Chapters and page references are provided in the relevant questions where necessary.

When answering these questions please bear in mind the factors the Committee must consider in our advice on carbon budgets – i.e. the path to the UK’s long-term target objective, international commitments and considerations such as social circumstances (including fuel poverty), competitiveness, energy security and the Government’s fiscal position.

You do not need to answer all the questions. Please answer only those questions where you have specific expertise and evidence to share.

Please limit your answers to 400 words per question and provide supporting evidence (e.g. reference to academic literature, market assessments, policy reports, etc.) along with your responses.