Well-adapted national security and international engagement system

Risk to the system from climate change: multiple climate hazards around the world threaten the UK’s national security and its commitments to global adaptation.

Objectives

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The UK’s national security is maintained in the face of international climate risks.

Global climate adaptation goals are successfully achieved, with the UK fulfilling its commitments.

Proposed target: from now through to 2050, the ability to adapt to climate change should be increased globally.
Proposed target: from now through to 2050, UK-provided international finance should give sufficient weight to climate change adaptation and should be effective in building climate resilience.

Actions

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Actions in the national security subsystem

Adapting the defence sector: forces and equipment, estates and assets, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations, and decision-making to consider climate risks.

Forces and equipment: adaptation is required to train and operate in more extreme weather conditions. Given the long lead times on most military equipment, in the near term this requires a focus on integrating climate considerations into procurement processes, including risks to supply chains themselves.
Estates and assets: adaptation is needed to withstand slow-onset climate impacts, such as sea-level rise, and sudden extreme climate events, such as flooding.
Decision-making: adaptation requires embedding climate considerations, integrating relevant climate-related data, and evaluating the impact of potential climate hazards on plans and operations.

Actions in the international climate adaptation subsystem

International adaptation assistance: direct adaptation assistance and mobilisation of international private adaptation finance.

Direct adaptation assistance: provision of adaptation assistance is a direct route for the UK Government to support other countries and territories to adapt. Effective adaptation assistance is context-specific, giving consideration to the characteristics of the community where they take place to ensure integration with local priorities. It also includes a focus on capacity development to share knowledge and strengthen climate adaptation governance. Key levers include UK’s International Climate Finance under the Paris Agreement and the UK’s obligations to British Overseas Territories.
Mobilising international private adaptation finance: private finance is needed to help meet the adaptation finance needs of developing countries (estimated to range between $284 billion–$339 billion per year until 2035). However, in 2023 only $4 billion was invested privately in adaptation and several barriers have been identified to it scaling up. Governments and multilateral institutions can collaborate to improve incentives and create innovative financial instruments. Approaches such as climate-resilient debt clauses (CRDCs) and blended finance, including guarantees and concessional debt, have been proposed and demonstrated to be effective in some cases. The UK Government is already engaged, including through UK Export Finance, the first export credit agency to offer CRDCs. British International Investment is also engaged, with their Climate Innovation Facility piloting tools to attract commercial investors into adaptation projects.

UK partnerships and exports: climate science services and financial services.

Climate science services: building on the UK’s existing climate services activities, organisations such as the Met Office can continue to work with international partners. These services can include weather forecasting, early warning systems, and building climate science capabilities. The Met Office has a track record of delivering impactful projects. The Met Office’s existing Hadley Centre Climate Programme has been assessed as offering good value-for-money, with a benefit-cost ratio of 33:1.
Financial services: the private finance sector, including the City of London and its insurance activities, can also play an important role, independently or collaboratively with the UK Government. Initiatives are already underway, such as Humanity Insured, a non-profit capitalised by seven global insurance companies, aiming to insure vulnerable communities. The Global Risk Modelling Alliance and the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework, two platforms seeking to improve risk analytics for vulnerable countries, were created out of the London insurance market. The Insurance Development Forum, a partnership with a mission to close insurance gaps in developing countries, was founded in London and has many British insurers as active members. Through the Room to Run scheme, the UK Government and three City of London insurance providers used a risk transfer mechanism to increase the African Development Bank’s lending headroom.

Enablers

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Resources: for implementing necessary actions across the system.

For the UK to meet its international obligations, the Government will need to continue making funds available to provide meaningful international finance. The defence sector will also need sufficient funding to ensure climate resilience is embedded into its assets and equipment planning and investment. There is no public evidence on the cost that would entail, though the sector has recognised that delaying adaptation would likely increase costs overall.

Clear plans, roles, and responsibilities: for coordinating work across government departments, the private sector, and civil society actors.

Policy responsibility relating to national security and international development sits across several government departments, including the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, the Home Office, the Ministry of Defence, and the Cabinet Office. It is important that there is an effective mechanism in place to collaborate between, and coordinate work across, these departments, as well as with private sector and civil society actors. Coordinating international development and security objectives can deliver benefits for long-term stability and resilience. Investment in climate-resilient development and conflict prevention can reduce vulnerabilities that might otherwise create security challenges.

Data and monitoring processes: for horizon scanning of international climate risks and early warning systems.

Effective adaptation to international risks requires good data and horizon scanning, covering both the risks themselves and potential adaptation actions required to reduce or avoid them. It is also important to monitor the effectiveness of actions taken.

Multiple interacting climate risks can trigger tipping points in natural and social systems, with implications for global development and national security. Early warning systems can help detect and prevent these knock-on impacts.
There are positive UK and international examples to build on. The UK and Canada’s joint CLARE programme is researching the effectiveness of interventions around climate-related migration in South Asia. Jordan is developing the world’s first national climate security intelligence assessment capability, with support from UK experts at the Climate Change and (In)Security Project. It intends to provide decision-makers with early warning systems and information to support planning, preparedness, and adaptation response. Similar proposals have been made for the UK.
Many of the data and warning systems would be valuable across defence, security and development operations. Evidence that the armed forces need to ensure operations are safe and effective in changing weather conditions can also be useful for international development activities. Enabling the effective sharing of these would support the efficient use of resources.

Policies

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International collaboration: sustained diplomacy and engagement on climate adaptation to reduce international climate risks to development and security.

Key international forums include the UNFCCC, the G7, the G20, and NATO. The expected UK presidency of the G20 in 2027 offers an opportunity to prioritise international collaboration on climate adaptation.

The UK has a strong track record of leadership in international climate negotiations, including through the hosting of COP26, and has been recognised as contributing constructively to facilitate strong outcomes. Under the negotiated requirements of the Paris Agreement, the formulation and implementation of national adaptation plans across developing countries has expanded.
In the defence context, the ability of the Government to procure climate-adapted and resilient equipment relies on the engagement of the private defence industry. The UK Government is a relatively small buyer in an international context. Coordination with allies, particularly through NATO, can provide a stronger signal to manufacturers and allow for better-aligned climate-resilient capabilities and interoperability.
The UK can build on previous multilateral collaboration in relation to climate change and security. Examples include the convening of a high-level dialogue on responding to climate change’s cascading security impacts at COP28, inclusion of the climate-security nexus in a 2025 UK-EU defence partnership, and participation in various forums focused on climate-related migration. Collaboration offers the opportunity for the UK to learn from others, as well as influence and share experience.

Public provision: providing overseas development aid to developing countries to build global resilience.

With the existing International Climate Finance commitment due to expire in 2026, the UK will need to set out a new contribution. This will sit in the context of the agreement at COP29 for developed countries to take the lead in mobilising at least $300 billion per year for developing countries, within the context of a wider goal involving all actors to scale up financing to developing countries to at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035. It will also sit in the context of the call to triple adaptation finance by 2035 made at COP30.

Information provision: providing required data and monitoring processes for international climate risks.

It will largely be the role of the Government to provide or enable the required data and monitoring processes.

Through climate service programmes, the Government can facilitate the sharing of information from UK centres of expertise. There are positive examples to build on, such as the Advanced Research and Invention Agency’s £81 million (2025 prices) research programme developing an early warning system for tipping points, providing climate data around Greenland and the North Atlantic.
A dedicated centre of excellence, designed to complement existing national security architecture, could play an important role developing and integrating climate data relevant to the future operating environment (including through early warning systems) and decision support into national security work. The proposed Defence Energy and Capability Resilience Centre of Excellence could play this role (amongst its other functions), with cross-government engagement needed to ensure the whole national security sector capitalises on the opportunity.
Public adaptation plans can increase confidence that the defence sector is building resilience. The Climate Change and Sustainability Strategic Approach made several short and medium-term commitments. There has been little public information setting out progress since.