Today the country’s climate advisors, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), present a new pathway to a decarbonised Northern Ireland. Our recommended level for Northern Ireland’s Fourth Carbon Budget is a 77% reduction in average annual emissions compared to the 1990 baseline, over the five-year period from 2038 to 2042.
We estimate that the net costs of Net Zero will be around 0.2% of GDP per year on average in our pathway. Much of this investment, in particular in energy supply, electric vehicles (EVs), and heat pumps, generates operational savings as inefficient fossil fuel technologies are replaced by more efficient electric alternatives. Devolved authorities don’t have control over all areas that need work. But the Executive does have power to act on the build out of clean electricity, charging infrastructure for cars, and electric heating. Acting on these would significantly contribute towards Northern Ireland’s ambition.
Much of the investment needed for our pathway is expected to come from the private sector but woodland creation and peatland restoration will require Government support. There are opportunities for new jobs in areas such as heat pump installation and manufacture.
Interim Chair, Professor Piers Forster, said:
“The Committee is delighted to be able to present a good news story about how Northern Ireland can decarbonise. To deliver against its ambitious climate commitments, immediate action is necessary. Action by government, businesses, and farmers can drive a rapid shift away from fossil fuels, boost investment, and benefit households.”
Required: change in pace of action
In 2022, emissions in Northern Ireland were 21.3 MtCO2e, which is 26% lower than levels in 1990. The pace of emissions reduction will need to increase significantly to ensure Northern Ireland meets its targets. By the middle of the Fourth Carbon Budget, emissions in our Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway are projected to be 77% lower than levels in 1990, which is around two-thirds below levels in 2022.
Emissions reductions so far have been driven by the energy supply and industry sectors, with significant reductions also seen in the waste sector. Action will need to broaden to other sectors. In our pathway, over three-fifths of the emissions reductions required to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget will come from domestic transport, buildings, and agriculture and land use. Addressing decarbonisation in these sectors is key for Northern Ireland to meet its targets.
Recommendations
We have 18 priority recommendations for immediate action to put Northern Ireland on track to deliver the Fourth Carbon Budget. Priorities include:
Decarbonising electricity supply. Introduce a support scheme for renewable generation, building on experience with contracts for difference in Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland. Address barriers in planning and regulation to expansion of transmission and distribution infrastructure. Ensure grid connections are easily available to renewables, industry, EV charging, and other low-carbon loads.
Supporting households to install low-carbon heating. With the majority of homes heated by highly emitting oil boilers, Northern Ireland should rapidly transition to low-carbon electric heat. While the Net Zero transition should lead to lower energy bills for consumers, support is needed to address barriers in upfront costs, especially for low-income households.
Expanding electric vehicle charging infrastructure. Support the deployment of public charge points across Northern Ireland, to address the issue that Northern Ireland currently has the fewest public EV charge points per capita of any of the UK nations. With prices for new and second-hand EVs falling, there is an opportunity for rapid take-up provided the right infrastructure is in place and people are provided with accessible, accurate information on their benefits.
Farming and nature. Long-term certainty is needed on public funding for farming practices and technologies to reduce emissions from managing crops and livestock, and incentives and markets should be provided for farmers and land managers to diversify their incomes for actions including woodland creation, peatland restoration, bioenergy crops, and renewable energy.
Carbon capture and storage and removals. Produce a strategy for development of CCS infrastructure in Northern Ireland, considering the requirements of industrial plants, energy from waste, and its use for engineered removals. This should include assessing the viable approaches for transporting and storing captured CO2, as well as options for incentivising engineered removals businesses to locate in Northern Ireland.
Notes to editors
- The Climate Change Committee (CCC) is an independent, statutory body established under the Climate Change Act 2008. Our purpose is to advise the UK and devolved governments on emissions targets and to report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for and adapting to the impacts of climate change.
- The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway goes beyond Northern Ireland’s contribution to the UK’s Balanced Pathway set out in our advice on the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget. We have developed this more ambitious pathway for Northern Ireland in order to reach Net Zero in Northern Ireland by 2050. In our modelling, we have relocated direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) into Northern Ireland from elsewhere in the UK, but other choices could be taken by the Northern Ireland Executive. Everything else in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway matches Northern Ireland’s contribution to the UK’s Balanced Pathway.
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