Northern Ireland's Fourth Carbon Budget - Climate Change Committee

Published:
19 March 2025

Type of publication:
Carbon budgets

Topics:
Carbon budgets, targets and progress

Presented to the Minister of Agriculture, Environment, and Rural Affairs pursuant to Section 58 of the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022.

Footnotes have been removed from the HTML version of this report. For the footnoted version of this report, please download the report.

Acknowledgements

The Committee would like to thank:

The team that prepared this report and its analysis. This was led by Emma Pinchbeck, James Richardson, Emily Nurse, Eoin Devane, and James Tarlton, and included Sasha Abraham, Rose Armitage, Florence Bates, Simona Battipaglia, Owen Bellamy, George Blake, Sandra Bogelein, Marili Boufounou, Marta Calore, Christian Calvillo Munoz, Rachel Carr-Whitworth, Lidice Cruz-Rodriguez, Selina Dagless, Bianca de Farias Letti, Victoria de la Cruz, Ramesh Deonarine, Joshua Deru, Tom Dooks, Caitlin Douglas, Kim Dowsett, Kieron Driscoll, Ahmed Gailani, Francesco Maria Giacomini, Ruth Gregg, Esther Harris, Cara Hawkins, Rachel Hay, Cilla Hellgren, Robbie Herring, Gemma Holmes, Daisy Jameson, Ariana Jessa, Luke Jones, Sam Karslake, Emma Kearney, Miriam Kennedy, Michael Lord, Grace Macready, Luke Maxfield, Moryse McInniss, Aaron McMahon, Richard Millar, Bea Natzler, Chloe Nemo, Chris Parker, Finna Parkinson, Emma Patterson, Lois Player, Simon Rayner, Andrew Romang, Elena Saggioro, Miranda Schroder, Viv Scott, Penny Seera, Olivia Shears, Marcus Shepheard, Bryony Sheridan, Joris Simaitis, Thomas Smith, Rachael Steller, Felicity Taylor, Seán Taylor, Indra Thillainathan, Sam Van Stroud, Emma Vause, Sophie Vipond, Zelna Weich, Chloe Welsh, Eveline White, Hannah Williams, Kate Williamson, Louis Worthington, Charley Wright, Ken Wright, and Susie Wright.

Our previous Committee member, Professor Michael Davies.

Our expert advisor on the role of households and the public in the Net Zero transition, Professor Rebecca Willis.

A wide range of organisations and individuals who participated in workshops, engaged with us, submitted evidence, or met with the Committee bilaterally.

Executive summary

The climate is changing. 2024 was the warmest year on record, at 1.6ºC above pre-industrial average levels. Global warming has unequivocally been caused by greenhouse gas emissions, with 100% of the observed long-term temperature change attributable to human causes.

The Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 (the Act) sets the framework for the Northern Ireland Executive to address climate change. The Act has an ambitious target to reach Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 as well as decadal targets and five-yearly caps on emissions in Northern Ireland, known as carbon budgets, that started in 2023. The Committee is required to advise the Northern Ireland Executive on the level of these targets.

Our recommended level for Northern Ireland’s Fourth Carbon Budget is a 77% reduction in average annual emissions compared to the 1990 baseline, over the five-year period from 2038 to 2042. In line with the Act, this excludes Northern Ireland’s contribution to international aviation and shipping.

This would be challenging but achievable, putting Northern Ireland on the path to deliver its targets under the Act. With the First Carbon Budget already well underway, the Northern Ireland Executive will need to broaden and accelerate action from today and through the 2030s in order to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget.

Supportive policies could accelerate change, learning lessons from successful approaches elsewhere. The electrification of key technologies (such as cars, home heating, and industrial heat), together with the expansion and decarbonisation of the electricity supply system, provide more than half of the reduction in emissions required to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget. Most of these technologies are well established and costs are falling fast. Clean, efficient, electric technologies will mean reduced air pollution and should mean lower energy bills than continued reliance on fossil fuel technologies. There is scope for rapid progress on electrification in Northern Ireland.

Agriculture is currently Northern Ireland’s highest-emitting sector. The right incentives and support need to be in place for farmers and land managers to adopt low-carbon practices in food production and to diversify land use from livestock farming to measures such as peatland restoration and woodland creation.

Alongside these, there will also need to be action on reducing demand for high-carbon goods and services; low-carbon fuels, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and low-carbon farming; and engineered removals.

We estimate that the net costs of Net Zero will be around 0.2% of GDP per year on average in our pathway. Much of this investment, in particular in energy supply, electric vehicles (EVs), and heat pumps, generates operational savings as inefficient fossil fuel technologies are replaced by more efficient electric alternatives.

Much of the investment needed for our pathway is expected to come from the private sector. There are also opportunities for new jobs in areas such as heat pump installation and manufacture. Reducing dependency on fossil fuels will increase economic resilience against price shocks in volatile international fossil fuel markets.

Our advice is based on the latest technological, social, and economic evidence; extensive sector modelling; and engagement with stakeholders. Decisions remain with the Northern Ireland Executive and the Assembly.

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway

Northern Ireland has a target to reach Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, with any residual emissions balanced by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Our advice on the level of the Fourth Carbon Budget is based on meeting this target, along with Northern Ireland’s legislated decadal targets for 2030 and 2040 and the First, Second, and Third Carbon Budgets, which cover the period 2023 to 2037. We have based our advice on our Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway: a modelled emissions reduction pathway from 2025 to Net Zero by 2050 (Figure 1).

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway goes beyond Northern Ireland’s contribution to the UK’s Balanced Pathway set out in our advice on the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget. We have developed this more ambitious pathway for Northern Ireland in order to reach Net Zero in Northern Ireland by 2050. In our modelling, we have relocated direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) into Northern Ireland from elsewhere in the UK, but other choices could be taken by the Northern Ireland Executive. Everything else in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway matches Northern Ireland’s contribution to the UK’s Balanced Pathway.

The Committee recommends that the Fourth Carbon Budget should be set at an average annual reduction of 77% on 1990 levels for the period 2038–2042

In 2022, emissions in Northern Ireland were 21.3 MtCO₂e, which is 26% lower than levels in 1990. The pace of emissions reduction will need to increase significantly to ensure Northern Ireland meets its targets. By the middle of the Fourth Carbon Budget, emissions in our Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway are projected to be 77% lower than levels in 1990, which is around two-thirds below levels in 2022.

Emissions reductions so far have been driven by the energy supply and industry sectors, due to the phase-out of coal, the ramp-up of renewable electricity generation, and reduced industrial output, with significant reductions also seen in the waste sector. Other sectors have seen very little progress in reducing emissions.

Action will need to broaden to other sectors. In our pathway, over three-fifths of the emissions reductions required to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget will come from domestic transport, buildings, and agriculture and land use. Addressing decarbonisation in these sectors is key for Northern Ireland to meet its targets. A ramp-up of engineered removals of CO₂ from the atmosphere is also needed over the Fourth Carbon Budget period, to be on track to reach Net Zero (Figure 2).

Action to reduce emissions is needed across a wide range of sectors. The vast majority of emissions reductions during the first four carbon budgets comes from energy supply, domestic transport, buildings, industry, and agriculture and land use. Reductions in agriculture and land use remain significant until 2050, with engineered removals scaling up later.

More than half (55%) of the reduction in emissions required to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget in our pathway is delivered by electrification of key technologies in transport, buildings, and industry, together with the expansion and decarbonisation of Northern Ireland’s electricity supply system. There are also important contributions from low-carbon fuels, CCS and low-carbon farming; nature-based measures; demand reduction; and engineered removals (Figure 3).

1. Electricity

Clean electricity replaces oil and gas for surface transport, buildings, and much of industry, so that electricity demand more than doubles by 2040. Ending the combustion of oil and gas in boilers and cars leads to cleaner air in Northern Ireland.

Low-carbon supply: in our pathway, capacity from variable renewables (a combination of offshore and onshore wind and solar) grows three-fold by 2040 to 5.5 GW, providing 83% of electricity generation. The remaining 17% of electricity comes from flexible dispatchable generation. This is mostly low-carbon, either gas with CCS or hydrogen-fired turbines, with a small strategic supply of unabated gas. This, together with grid storage and interconnection to Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland, ensures a reliable supply of electricity even in adverse weather years.
Electric vehicles: by 2040, more than three-quarters of cars and vans and more than half of heavy goods vehicles on the roads in Northern Ireland are fully electric in our pathway, compared to 1.4% for cars and 0.5% for vans in 2023. This requires a rapid increase in the market share of new electric cars and vans, reaching around 85% by 2030 and 100% by 2035, from 11% and 4% respectively for cars and vans in 2023. This transition will be underpinned by the falling costs of batteries in electric vehicles, with electric cars and vans expected to reach price parity with petrol and diesel vehicles between 2026 and 2028.
Heat pumps: by 2040, more than two-thirds of homes in Northern Ireland are heated by low-carbon electric heating, predominately heat pumps, in our pathway. Annual installation rates will need to accelerate rapidly, reaching nearly 20,000 in 2030, a rate of increase in line with that seen in other European countries such as the Republic of Ireland and the Netherlands. But installation rates do not exceed natural replacement cycles: heating systems are only replaced at the end of their life in our pathway.
Industrial electrification: by 2040, in our pathway the proportion of industrial energy supplied by electricity rises to 51%, from 20% in 2022. Electric alternatives replace most types of fossil-fuel-fired heating equipment. Electrifying industry allows manufacturers in Northern Ireland to benefit from global demand for low-carbon goods.

2. Low-carbon fuels, CCS, and low-carbon farming

While electrification is the key technological decarbonisation solution, there is also an important supporting role for low-carbon fuels and CCS. In addition, with agriculture being the main source of emissions in Northern Ireland, developing low-carbon farming practices is essential. Together, these make up 10% of the reduction in emissions required to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget in our pathway.

Low-carbon farming: a number of low-carbon farming practices and technologies are introduced in our pathway, providing around half the emissions reduction in the agriculture sector. Livestock dominates the sector in Northern Ireland, with feed additives and waste and manure management measures being the most important measures.
Aviation and shipping fuels: ships transition to a mix of low-carbon fuels, predominantly low-carbon ammonia and synthetic fuels. Planes transition to using some sustainable aviation fuels, with 17% used by 2040 in our pathway.
Hydrogen: hydrogen plays a small but important role in industry, for example for heat in the chemicals sector. Hydrogen is also used as a feedstock for synthetic fuels for shipping and aviation and in larger off-road mobile vehicles in agriculture, as well as a possible role in low-carbon dispatchable electricity generation. However, we see no role for hydrogen in buildings heating.
CCS: as well as in low-carbon dispatchable electricity generation, CCS plays an important role in industry, for example capturing process emissions from cement production. It is also used for low-carbon hydrogen production, at Northern Ireland’s energy from waste plant, and to underpin engineered removals in our pathway.

3. Nature

Nature-based measures, including restoring peatlands and planting new woodland, are integral in growing land-based carbon sequestration. Together with planting energy crops and renewables, they provide opportunities for farmers to diversify their income streams away from livestock farming. Nature-based measures contribute 8% of the reduction in emissions required to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget in our pathway.

Peatlands: Northern Ireland contains a significant amount (over 200 kha) of degraded peatlands that are currently a net source of emissions. These peatlands need to be re-wetted and restored. Our pathway sees a rise in the proportion of peatland under such management from the current 18% to 63% by 2040.
Woodland: the proportion of woodland cover rises from the current 8% to 12% in 2040, allowing diverse woodlands to deliver carbon sequestration. A significant increase in woodland creation rates is needed over the next decade.

4. Engineered removals

Engineered removals are needed to balance residual emissions in 2050, predominantly from agriculture. There are a range of possible technologies that could be considered: DACCS, bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), enhanced weathering, and biochar. In our Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway, the majority of emissions reduction comes from DACCS, with much smaller contributions from all the others. It is up to the Northern Ireland Executive to determine the most appropriate mix of technologies, informed by updated evidence. But it is clear that to meet Net Zero overall in Northern Ireland, some form of engineered removals will be required. Engineered removals provide 4% of the reduction in emissions required to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget in our pathway.

Both DACCS and BECCS require CCS infrastructure, including transport to permanent geological storage for the CO₂ captured. Northern Ireland lacks direct access to suitable storage sites. As such, captured CO₂ would likely need to be shipped to a CCS cluster in Great Britain or piped to possible sites in the Republic of Ireland. The Northern Ireland Executive should ensure that the conditions are in place to attract DACCS operators to establish operations in Northern Ireland.
Another alternative approach could be to bridge some of the gap to Net Zero by acquiring credits for more cost-effective CO₂ removals (in particular, land-based removals such as woodland creation) taking place elsewhere in the UK. This should only be considered as an option to go beyond the level of decarbonisation that can be credibly delivered through domestic action. Restrictions on the use of carbon units in the Act currently prevent inclusion of this option.

5. Demand

The deployment of low-carbon technologies needs to be done in parallel with a shift away from high-carbon goods and services. Demand measures contribute 23% of the reduction in emissions required to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget in our pathway.

Increased efficiency: by 2040, our pathway sees cost-effective resource and/or energy efficiency measures deployed across most sectors. This includes home insulation, more efficient use of resources in industry, and reductions in commercial, household, and food waste.
Low-carbon choices: by 2040, our pathway sees people make some shifts towards lower-carbon choices. Most importantly for Northern Ireland, a continuation of existing dietary trends, together with greater choice and availability of plant-based foods, sees a reduction in meat (especially beef and lamb) and dairy consumption across the UK, within overall healthier diets.

The Fourth Carbon Budget is delivered through five key routes: electricity, low-carbon fuels and CCS, nature, engineered removals, and demand. The largest share of emissions reduction is from the switch from fossil fuels to electric technologies powered using low-carbon electricity.

The cost of the transition

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway requires upfront investment. In many sectors, this upfront investment will lead to significant savings in the future as inefficient fossil fuel technologies are replaced by more efficient, low-carbon alternatives. When combining capital and operating costs, we expect the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway to result in a net saving during the Fourth Carbon Budget Period. On average there will be a net cost of around £90 million per year between 2025 and 2050, which is around 0.2% of GDP (Figure 4).

EVs will lead to a significant cost saving. Electric cars and vans are already generally cheaper to run and maintain, and will soon be cheaper to buy, than their fossil fuel-based alternatives. Households will see a significant reduction in the cost of driving.
Heat pumps are more efficient than oil and gas boilers, which should lead to lower household energy bills. However, homes in Northern Ireland are predominantly designed around oil heating and will need a one-off improvement to be suitable for heat pumps in many cases.
Energy supply requires upfront investment because renewable technologies are more capital intensive than fossil-fuelled electricity generation. With much lower operating costs, they generate savings over time in our pathway.
We include the costs of engineered removals in our costs analysis. Who pays for removals is a policy choice. In our UK Seventh Carbon Budget advice, we assumed that the costs of removals, UK-wide, are predominantly borne on a ‘polluter pays’ basis by industries such as aviation that have residual CO₂ emissions. These costs would therefore be met by people across the UK, rather than necessarily in Northern Ireland.

The net additional cost of the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway is frontloaded, peaking in 2029. In later years there are high additional operating savings in surface transport, residential buildings, and energy supply, and capital and operating costs from engineered removals.

Key actions

We have 18 priority recommendations for immediate action to put Northern Ireland on track to deliver the Fourth Carbon Budget. The full set can be found in Annex 1. Priorities include:

Decarbonising electricity supply. Introduce a support scheme for renewable generation, building on experience with contracts for difference in Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland. Address barriers in planning and regulation to expansion of transmission and distribution infrastructure. Ensure grid connections are easily available to renewables, industry, EV charging, and other low-carbon loads.
Supporting households to install low-carbon heating. With the majority of homes heated by highly emitting oil boilers, Northern Ireland should rapidly transition to low-carbon electric heat. While the Net Zero transition should lead to lower energy bills for consumers, support is needed to address barriers in upfront costs, especially for low-income households.
Expanding electric vehicle charging infrastructure. Support the deployment of public charge points across Northern Ireland, to address the issue that Northern Ireland currently has the fewest public EV charge points per capita of any of the UK nations. With prices for new and second-hand EVs falling, there is an opportunity for rapid take-up provided the right infrastructure is in place and people are provided with accessible, accurate information on their benefits.
Farming and nature. Long-term certainty is needed on public funding for farming practices and technologies to reduce emissions from managing crops and livestock, and incentives and markets should be provided for farmers and land managers to diversify their incomes for actions including woodland creation, peatland restoration, bioenergy crops, and renewable energy.
Carbon capture and storage and removals. Produce a strategy for development of CCS infrastructure in Northern Ireland, considering the requirements of industrial plants, energy from waste, and its use for engineered removals. This should include assessing the viable approaches for transporting and storing captured CO₂, as well as options for incentivising engineered removals businesses to locate in Northern Ireland.

Next steps

The Committee provides advice, but we do not set policy. The Northern Ireland Executive should now propose a level for the Fourth Carbon Budget to the Northern Ireland Assembly. This must be set by the end of 2025. They must also provide an accompanying Climate Action Plan and sectoral plans detailing how they expect to meet their carbon budgets.

Above all, to meet our Fourth Carbon Budget pathway, immediate action is necessary. We are already approaching the middle of the First Carbon Budget and action needs to accelerate and broaden to more sectors. Action by government, businesses, and households can drive a rapid shift away from fossil fuels, boost investment, and support good new jobs.

Chapter 1: Introduction

Introduction and key messages

This report sets out the Committee’s advice to the Northern Ireland Executive on the level of the Fourth Carbon Budget (2038 to 2042) as required by the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 (hereafter ‘the Act’). Our advice is based on analysis underpinning our advice to the UK on the level of the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget, which covers the same period. That advice report contains more detail on the analysis.

This chapter summarises the latest scientific knowledge about climate change, sets out Northern Ireland’s current targets under the Act, and summarises current emissions trends in Northern Ireland.

Our key messages are:

The Earth’s climate is changing rapidly as human-induced warming is increasing at an unprecedented rate. Risks are increasing – extreme weather events show the impact that climate change is already having, both globally and in the UK. Every 0.1°C of additional warming creates increasing threats from climate change.
The science is clear that human activities have driven increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere to levels not previously experienced by our species. Long-term human-induced warming now reaches around 1.3ºC above pre-industrial levels and is rising at over 0.2ºC per decade.
Net Zero CO₂ emissions as well as deep reductions in other GHG emissions globally are required to halt further global warming. While it is now almost inevitable that warming levels will exceed 1.5ºC in the next ten years, it may still be possible to limit warming to 1.5ºC in the longer term, provided deep global emissions cuts begin immediately.
Global action must speed up. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process, the Paris Agreement, government policies, action from non-state actors, and market initiatives are driving progress. Global GHG emissions are likely near their peak, and on a per-capita basis have begun to fall. But much more action is needed.
Emissions in Northern Ireland are currently dominated by agriculture, with significant contributions from other sectors especially surface transport, energy supply, and residential buildings. Emissions have been falling slowly, predominantly in energy supply and industry, but reductions will need to speed up and broaden to more sectors to meet Northern Ireland’s first three carbon budgets.

The latest scientific knowledge about climate change

Global temperatures are rising (Figure 1.1). In recent years, climate and weather records have continued to be broken around the world.

Global temperatures have continued to increase. 2024 was the warmest year on record, at 1.6ºC above pre-industrial average levels.^[1] Long-term human-induced global warming in 2023 is estimated to have risen to 1.3ºC (1.1ºC to 1.7ºC, 5th to 95th percentile range) above pre-industrial average levels.^[2] The rate of increase is unprecedented, reaching 0.26°C per decade over 2014 to 2023.^[3];^[4]
Records for climate and weather extremes continue to be broken. In 2023, ocean heat content reached its highest level in the 65-year observational record and global mean sea level reached a record high. Extreme weather events, such as wildfires and flooding, led to widespread loss of life and property destruction.^[5]
Warming will inevitably continue in the near term. Global temperatures will continue to rise until the point when the world reaches Net Zero CO₂ emissions, with deep reductions in other GHGs also needed to limit warming.^[6] This continued warming means that the world is rapidly approaching the lower end of the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal (Box 1.1).

Since 1850, global average temperatures have been increasing, with a particular acceleration beginning around 1970. Observed annual temperatures fluctuate around long-term human-induced warming.

Box 1.1
Global warming of 1.5ºC

Long-term warming

The 2015 Paris Agreement has a single long-term temperature goal: ‘holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’. While not formally defined in the Agreement itself, the warming levels referenced in this goal are widely interpreted as referring to multi-decadal human-induced average warming, excluding short-term natural variability.^[7] For simplicity, this is often referred to as ‘long-term warming’.

Since 2015, advancing climate science has further highlighted risks of exceeding 1.5ºC of long-term warming. The UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP) has recognised these risks and put a greater focus on pursuing efforts to keep to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – such as in the agreed conclusions on the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement which concluded in 2023.

Long-term global warming, as measured according to this interpretation, has not yet exceeded 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels, but it is rapidly approaching it. Estimates of current human-induced long-term warming are around 1.31ºC above pre-industrial levels and are rising at 0.26ºC per decade.^[8]

Short-term variability

The Earth’s temperature also experiences short-term fluctuations on both annual and monthly timescales which can temporarily increase or lower global temperatures from the human-induced long-term average. A major contributor to this is the El Niño cycle – which occurs in the Pacific but has a large impact on global temperature. The large and persistent El Niño occurring over late 2023 and 2024 was one of the reasons that global average temperature anomalies have repeatedly, but temporarily, reached 1.5ºC or higher above pre-industrial levels. February 2023 to January 2024 was the first 12-month period where the mean global average temperature exceeded 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels, and June 2024 marked the twelfth consecutive month to reach or surpass 1.5ºC warming.^[9] 2024 was the warmest calendar year on record, surpassing 1.5ºC warming for the first time.^[10]

This does not mean that the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement has been breached; limiting long-term warming to 1.5ºC remains a central goal in the UNFCCC process.

Looking ahead

While it is theoretically possible to return long-term warming to below 1.5ºC following a limited overshoot, every increment of global warming brings additional risks, both in terms of climate impacts and to the chances of bringing warming back down over time.^[11]

In nearly all of the modelled scenarios considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), long-term warming exceeds 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels in the early 2030s. Some degree of exceedance is therefore now almost inevitable.
Under current policies, the remaining global carbon budget for 1.5ºC would be exhausted by 2030. By the period of the Fourth Carbon Budget, global warming will likely be at or above 1.5ºC even in a global highest ambition scenario.^[12]
Recent analyses suggest it is still technically possible to limit long-term warming to 1.5ºC with low overshoot. Deep and immediate emissions cuts are required, and the required rate of global emissions reduction increases with every year global action falls short of that implied by 1.5ºC-aligned pathways.^[13];^[14]
Long-term warming above 1.5ºC, even temporarily, will bring additional impacts that will need to be adapted to. The greater the overshoot, the larger the climate risks associated with the warming during and after the overshoot period, including the risk of crossing tipping points.^[15];^[16]
A greater degree of overshoot also implies a larger need for CO₂ removal measures and net negative emissions to bring temperatures back down. Many of these measures are not yet proven at scale and have uncertain costs and large implications for energy systems.^[17]

1.1.2 Global emissions

There is a near-linear relationship between cumulative anthropogenic CO₂ emissions and the global warming they cause. Continued emissions of CO₂ and other long-lived GHGs therefore imply continued warming.^[18]

Global GHG emissions grew steeply throughout the second half of the 20th century and have continued to grow over recent years, albeit at a slowing rate.

Annual net global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and land use, land use change, and forestry (‘land use’) in 2023 were around 41 GtCO₂.^[19] This makes 2023 emissions approximately joint highest in the modern record, with 2019.
- Global emissions of methane contributed around one-third of the total GHG-driven global warming seen by 2010 to 2019.^[20] Recent estimates show methane emissions continue to rise, implying a growing contribution to warming, and in 2023 were 2–4% above 2019 levels.^[21];^[22]
The rate of increase has slowed over the past decade. The rate of growth in global fossil CO₂ emissions peaked at nearly 3% per year during the 2000s but has slowed in the last decade to less than 1% per year on average.^[23]
- Global GHG emissions per capita (excluding emissions from land use, for which uncertainty is larger) broadly plateaued in the 2010s and in 2023 were 1% below peak levels, which occurred in 2012.^[24];^[25]
Various sources expect global emissions to peak this decade.
- The International Energy Agency and Bloomberg New Energy Finance both project an immediate or mid-2020s peak for energy sector CO₂ emissions under current policy settings.^[26];^[27]
- The UNFCCC assesses that if countries implement their 2030 emissions targets in full, global GHG emissions will peak in the 2020s.^[28]

1.1.3 Latest scientific understanding

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) completed its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) cycle in 2023. This brings together the last five years of scientific studies and provides the scientific basis for this report. It concluded that human activities have ‘unequivocally caused global warming’, and that limiting human-induced global warming to 1.5ºC requires deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in GHG emissions.

Global temperatures are increasing as a result of human activities. The increase in average global surface temperatures has been driven by increases in GHG concentrations, which have unequivocally been caused by GHG emissions from fossil fuels and other human activities.
Human-caused climate change is already affecting weather extremes across the globe. Evidence has strengthened linking human influence to observed changes in extremes such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, droughts, and tropical storms. Human influence has also likely increased the chance of these events occurring simultaneously. Vulnerable communities are disproportionately affected by these extreme events.
Risks increase as warming increases. Changes in extreme climate events become larger with every additional increment of warming. Concurrent extreme weather and sea level events are projected to become more frequent, storms to become more intense, and arid conditions to become more widespread. Abrupt and irreversible changes, including those triggered when tipping points are reached, become more likely and more impactful with further warming. For any given level of warming, many climate-related risks are assessed to be higher than in the IPCC’s previous assessments.
Limiting human-caused warming requires deep and immediate emissions cuts. Modelled IPCC pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (with low or no overshoot) reach global Net Zero CO₂ in the early 2050s. These pathways see global GHG emissions peak by 2025 and assume deep and immediate cuts in emissions are made across most sectors this decade.
- Net Zero refers to a state in which GHG emissions entering the atmosphere are balanced by removals out of the atmosphere. Reaching Net Zero CO₂ emissions globally is necessary for limiting global warming to any level. In most modelled scenarios, Net Zero global GHG emissions is associated with net negative global CO₂ emissions (needed to balance residual non-CO₂ emissions) and falling temperatures.^[29]
- Limiting warming requires both limiting cumulative CO₂ emissions and strong reductions in other GHGs. The IPCC has high confidence that the level of emissions reduction by 2030 will be key to determining whether warming can be limited to 1.5°C or 2°C.
- Global warming will continue to increase in the near term, as cumulative CO₂ emissions continue to rise in all of the IPCC’s modelled scenarios. Even under the IPCC’s very low emissions scenario, global warming is more likely than not to reach 1.5°C before 2040.
Rapid action on mitigation and adaptation can reduce projected losses and damage. Actions this decade are crucial to reducing emissions quickly and adapting to the changing climate, since there are often long implementation times. Delaying action could also have other detrimental consequences, including risking lock-in to high-emissions infrastructure, stranded assets, and rising costs for people and businesses.
- The IPCC reports a 10–23% climate change-caused decline in annual global GDP by 2100 under a high warming scenario, though statistical approaches point towards the upper end of this range.^[30];^[31] Recent actuarial assessments emphasise the risk that losses could be considerably higher than currently considered in decision-making.^[32];^[33]
- Integrated responses that address both mitigation and adaptation objectives can take advantage of synergies and reduce trade-offs.

The UK and international context

Northern Ireland’s ambition in climate change mitigation comes in the context of international action on climate change.

1.2.1 Global agreements on climate change

The UNFCCC process

The UNFCCC is the UN process for negotiating a global approach to address climate change. 197 countries plus the European Union are currently party to this process. Negotiations take place through the annual Conference of the Parties (COP). COP21 in 2015 negotiated the Paris Agreement, which is the latest global agreement on climate change mitigation.

The Paris Agreement: this set several goals and objectives extending across mitigation, adaptation, and finance, and including:
- A long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming to ‘well below 2ºC above pre-industrial levels’ and to ‘pursue efforts to’ limit warming to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels.
- On mitigation, setting three high-level milestones for global GHG emissions: global peaking as soon as possible, rapid reductions thereafter, and achieving a balance between emissions sources and sinks in the second half of this century (Net Zero GHGs).
Nationally Determined Contributions: under the Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). NDCs should set out ambitious targets and plans to reduce emissions in line with the aims of the Agreement.
- The UK set its first NDC to require a reduction in GHG emissions (excluding emissions from international aviation and shipping) of at least 68% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels.
- In January 2025, the UK submitted its second NDC, requiring an at least 81% reduction in GHG emissions by 2035, compared to 1990 levels. Both NDCs have been set in line with the Committee’s advice.
- Northern Ireland reports on its international commitments formally to the UN as part of the UK-wide Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
The Global Stocktake: the Paris Agreement established a five-yearly Global Stocktake to assess progress towards achieving its objectives. The first Global Stocktake concluded at COP28 in 2023 and highlighted significant gaps between current action and that needed to achieve the Agreement’s goals, notably (in the context of this advice) on mitigation.
- Reacting to the latest scientific evidence and political momentum built at COP26 and since, the Global Stocktake placed particular emphasis on the importance of 1.5ºC, underscoring that climate impacts would be much less severe than at 2ºC, and noting the gap between existing commitments and a 1.5ºC-consistent trajectory.
- The Global Stocktake set out several global objectives, including:
  - A tripling of global renewable energy capacity and a doubling of the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.
  - Accelerating the phase-down of unabated coal power and transitioning away from fossil fuels, with particular focus on accelerated action this decade.
  - Accelerating reductions in non-CO₂ GHG emissions, including in particular methane by 2030.
  - Accelerating deployment of low- and zero-emission technologies including zero-emission vehicles, renewables, nuclear, removals, and carbon capture technologies.
  - Phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.

Global ambition and delivery

National Net Zero targets and ambitions now cover approximately 90% of present global GHG emissions. Many of these targets are assessed as lacking detail and credibility, with short-term ambitions out of step with long-term goals.^[34]

These targets are increasingly accompanied by policy packages designed to incentivise take-up of low-carbon technologies and boost domestic energy security and low-carbon competitiveness, albeit still falling short of alignment with NDC targets. Major low-carbon transition programmes (often with a notable electrification focus) are underway in the world’s largest economies.

Progress is being driven by improving economics of low-carbon technologies interacting with policy support. The global average cost for new electricity generation has fallen by 88% for solar PV, 60% for wind, and nearly 90% for battery storage since 2010.^[35] The world now invests almost twice as much in clean energy as it does in fossil fuels, with clean energy investment expected to reach $2 trillion in 2024.^[36]

Globally, however, efforts remain significantly off track to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goal (Figure 1.2).^[37]

Global GHG emissions implied by NDCs are consistent with warming of around 2.5ºC by 2100 and would need to be 19–22 GtCO₂e lower in 2030 than those implied by current NDCs to align with a 1.5ºC scenario. Current policies in turn fall short of what would be needed to deliver NDCs, implying warming of around 3ºC by 2100 and indicating an implementation gap on top of the ambition gap.^[38];^[39]
Nonetheless, significant progress has been made in recent years. When major emitters’ Net Zero pledges are considered alongside NDCs, latest commitments imply warming below 2ºC if implemented in full (which countries are not currently on track to do), compared to the 3–4ºC projected before the Paris Agreement was adopted.^[40]

Current policies and commitments imply flat or falling future global emissions, above scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 1.5ºC or well below 2ºC.

1.2.2 The Climate Change Act and UK carbon budgets

The Climate Change Act (2008) is the UK’s legal framework for tackling and responding to climate change. The Act sets in law a long-term goal of reaching Net Zero UK GHG emissions by 2050 as well as intermediate steps defined by the level of carbon budgets, which set legally binding caps on UK GHG emissions over five-year periods. These make clear the required level of emissions reduction in the short and medium term to ensure the UK is on track to decarbonise by 2050.

Emissions in Northern Ireland are covered by the Climate Change Act and therefore contribute to the UK’s carbon budgets and Net Zero target.
The UK has approximately halved its emissions since 1990 and has met all of its three carbon budgets so far.
The next three steps on the way to Net Zero are the Fourth, Fifth and Sixth Carbon Budgets, covering the periods 2023 to 2027, 2028 to 2032, and 2033 to 2037. These have been legislated, while the Seventh Carbon Budget, covering the period 2038 to 2042, is due to be legislated in 2026.

1.3 The Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland)

The Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) (2022) sets the framework for the Northern Ireland Executive to address climate change. Emissions in Northern Ireland are covered by both Northern Ireland’s targets, set under the Act, and UK-wide targets, set under the UK Climate Change Act (2008) and as part of the UNFCCC process.

The Act has an ambitious target to reach Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This goes further than the Committee’s pathways for Northern Ireland produced as part of our UK-wide advice on both the Sixth Carbon Budget and the Seventh Carbon Budget.
The Act also sets out decadal targets and five-yearly caps on emissions in Northern Ireland, known as carbon budgets, that started in 2023 (Table 1.1). The carbon budgets are expressed as average annual percentage reductions on levels below the 1990 baseline.^[41] The first three carbon budgets and the 2030 and 2040 decadal targets have been set at levels consistent with the Committee’s advice on the path to a Net Zero Northern Ireland.^[42];^[43]
Northern Ireland’s emissions from international aviation and shipping are not included in these targets. However, they are included in the UK’s Net Zero target and Sixth Carbon Budget.
The Act includes a requirement that reaching Net Zero in Northern Ireland does not rely on reducing methane emissions by more than 46% below the 1990 baseline by 2050.

The Committee is required to provide advice on the Fourth Carbon Budget, covering the period 2038 to 2042. The Northern Ireland Executive needs to consider this advice and to set the budget by the end of 2026.

Table 1.1 Northern Ireland’s existing targets in line with Net Zero
Target	Existing target (reduction on 1990 levels)
First Carbon Budget (2023–2027)	33%
Second Carbon Budget (2028–2032)	48%
2030 target	48%
Third Carbon Budget (2033–2037)	62%
2040 target	77%
2050 target	100%
Source: Northern Ireland Executive (2022) Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022; Northern Ireland Executive (2024) The climate change (carbon budgets 2033-2037) regulations (Northern Ireland) 2024. Notes: The percentage reductions for the carbon budgets are average annual reductions over the five-year periods. These are reductions compared to the baseline specified in the Act, which is 1990 for CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide and 1995 for F-gases.

1.4 Current emissions in Northern Ireland

Emissions in Northern Ireland were 21.3 MtCO₂e in 2022, the most recent year for which data is available.^[44] This is 26% below levels in 1990 (Figure 1.3). The pace of emissions reduction will need to significantly increase to achieve the first three carbon budgets. We are already two years into the First Carbon Budget (2023 to 2027).

Emissions in 2022 were dominated by agriculture, with significant contributions from other sectors especially surface transport, energy supply and residential buildings (Figure 1.4).^[45]
So far, emissions reductions have been driven by the energy supply and industry sectors, due to the phase out of coal and ramp up of renewable electricity generation, and reduced industrial output. There has also been a significant reduction in the waste sector. Progress in all these sectors has stalled in recent years and there has been little progress in all other sectors since 1990.

Emissions in Northern Ireland were 21.3 MtCO2e in 2022, the most recent year for which data is available. This is 26% below levels in 1990

Emissions in 2022 were dominated by agriculture, with significant contributions from other sectors especially surface transport, energy supply and residential buildings.

Chapter 2: Northern Ireland’s path to Net Zero

Introduction and key messages

This chapter sets out our recommended level for Northern Ireland’s Fourth Carbon Budget. Our recommendation is based on our new Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway from 2025 to Net Zero by 2050.

Our key messages are:

The Fourth Carbon Budget should be set at an average annual reduction of 77% on 1990 levels for the period from 2038 to 2042.
This will require a significant acceleration in the pace of decarbonisation seen over recent decades.
- Electrification, including the supply of low-carbon electricity and its use in electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps, and industrial processes, delivers 55% of the emissions reduction needed.
- Many of the solutions required are available today with choices that are now clear. These solutions could be rapidly deployed, provided the right incentives are put in place.
Our Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway goes beyond the Balanced Pathway for Northern Ireland from our advice on the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget, in order to reach Net Zero in Northern Ireland by 2050.
- To model the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway, we have relocated direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) from elsewhere in the UK to Northern Ireland, but other options could be available.
- To deliver this, the Northern Ireland Executive would need to ensure that the conditions are in place to attract DACCS operators to establish operations in Northern Ireland.
- Who pays for engineered removals is a policy choice. In our UK advice, we largely assume DACCS is funded on a ‘polluter pays’ principle, in which case these costs would fall UK-wide rather than necessarily to people in Northern Ireland.
- The vast majority of emissions reduction in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway are delivered by actions common to the two pathways.
Given the balance of investment costs and operating savings, the overall cost of meeting the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway is estimated to be around £90 million per year on average between 2025 and 2050, relative to the baseline. This is around 0.2% of GDP.

2.1 Emissions pathways for Northern Ireland

2.1.1 The Balanced Pathway and the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway

Our advice on the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget (2038 to 2042) was based on the UK’s Balanced Pathway, which represents our assessment of a pathway to Net Zero UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that is based on actions that are feasible and cost effective across the UK. As the Balanced Pathway for Northern Ireland does not reach Northern Ireland’s Net Zero 2050 target, we have developed a more ambitious pathway that goes beyond the Balanced Pathway in order to reach Net Zero for Northern Ireland by 2050. We refer to this pathway as the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway, and we use it as the basis for our recommendation for an appropriate level of the Fourth Carbon Budget that would be consistent with Northern Ireland’s existing Net Zero target.

To model the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway, we have bridged the gap to Net Zero by relocating DACCS into Northern Ireland. This DACCS is allocated as a proportion of the UK-wide DACCS deployment included in our advice on the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget.

The Balanced Pathway includes zero DACCS in Northern Ireland, because its location in our UK-wide analysis was chosen to ensure proximity to suitable storage sites to minimise CO₂ transport costs. In practice, this is only one of a number of factors that will determine the best locations for DACCS. Others include the cost and availability of energy, land, and skilled labour. Energy costs in particular are likely to be critical and are likely to vary between Northern Ireland and Great Britain given that they are on different electricity grids.
To deliver the DACCS assumed in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway, the Northern Ireland Executive would need to ensure that the conditions are in place to attract DACCS operators to establish operations in Northern Ireland. This will include ensuring timely availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) infrastructure, developing plans for transport and storage of the captured CO₂, and making sure that Northern Ireland is a price-competitive location for DACCS to take place.
While we have included DACCS within the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway, in practice there could be a range of possible approaches to help abate the residual emissions. These are explored in Section 3.4.

2.1.2 Emissions in the Balanced Pathway and Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway and the Balanced Pathway are identical apart from the allocation of DACCS. Prior to 2035, there is no difference in emissions, as this is the earliest date at which CCS infrastructure is assumed to become available in our analysis, as part of the Northern Ireland CCS cluster coming online. After this point, there is a small difference between the two pathways due to early DACCS roll-out in the late 2030s. This difference grows as DACCS deployment ramps up through the 2040s (Figure 2.1).

Both pathways require a significant acceleration in the pace of decarbonisation seen over recent decades. Emissions have fallen by 26% over the 32 years between 1990 and 2022; a similar percentage reduction will be needed over the five years between 2025 and 2030.
- This acceleration is needed to get Northern Ireland on track to meet its existing emissions targets. While ambitious, our pathway demonstrates that this is deliverable.
- The peak rate of emissions reduction is reached in both pathways around 2030.
By 2040 (the middle year of the Fourth Carbon Budget period), 97% of the emissions reduction required is delivered by actions common to the two pathways. These deliver two-thirds of the total change needed to reach Net Zero in Northern Ireland. Much of this reduction will come from technologies and choices that are available today and can be deployed quickly (see Section 2.3.2). This emphasises the importance of putting the conditions in place to enable markets in low-carbon technologies to scale up quickly.
The pace of decarbonisation slows in the Balanced Pathway after 2040, as the roll-out of many low-carbon technologies (such as electric vehicles and heat pumps) reaches more challenging tail-end segments of the market and many of the early opportunities have been exhausted.
As a result, around 3 MtCO₂e of residual emissions remain in the Balanced Pathway in 2050, equating to a reduction in emissions of 89% compared to 1990 levels. These residual emissions in the Balanced Pathway are primarily due to the larger agriculture sector in Northern Ireland than in the UK as a whole.
The allocation of DACCS in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway enables the pace of decarbonisation to be maintained beyond 2040, allowing Net Zero to be reached by 2050.
Both pathways are presented compared to a baseline, which is a hypothetical pathway that does not include further climate action. This allows us to calculate the required abatement, investment needs, costs, and cost savings associated with the future actions to reduce Northern Ireland’s GHG emissions. See Chapter 2 of our UK Seventh Carbon Budget advice for further details on our baseline and the general approach we take to developing emissions pathways.

For the rest of this advice, we focus on the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway, as this provides the basis for our recommended level of the Fourth Carbon Budget in line with meeting Northern Ireland’s Net Zero target.

2.2 Emissions in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway

2.2.1 Performance against existing future emissions targets

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway meets all of Northern Ireland’s existing targets on GHG emissions (Table 2.1).

It narrowly meets both the First and Second Carbon Budgets and the 2030 and 2040 decadal targets. These remain ambitious targets, and rapid decarbonisation action will be needed now to achieve them.
It slightly overperforms the legislated level of the Third Carbon Budget, by an amount that equates to around 0.4 MtCO₂e per year during the period from 2033 to 2037. This is due to a slightly different make-up of emissions reductions by sector compared to our 2023 advice.
It reaches Net Zero GHG emissions in 2050.

Table 2.1 Performance of the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway against Northern Ireland’s existing GHG emissions targets
Target	Target level (reduction below the 1990 baseline)	Pathway performance
First Carbon Budget (2023–2027)	33%	33%
Second Carbon Budget (2028–2032)	48%	48%
2030 target	48%	48%
Third Carbon Budget (2033–2037)	62%	64%
2040 target	77%	77%
Net Zero 2050	100%	100%
Notes: (1) All targets and pathway reductions exclude emissions from international aviation and shipping. (2) The percentage reductions for the carbon budgets are average annual reductions over the five-year periods. These are reductions compared to the baseline specified in the Act, which is 1990 for CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide and 1995 for F-gases. (3) Figures have been rounded to the nearest percentage point.

2.2.2 Recommended level of the Fourth Carbon Budget

The Committee recommends that the Fourth Carbon Budget should be set at an average annual reduction of 77% below the 1990 baseline for the period 2038 to 2042 (Figure 2.2).

The recommended 77% reduction is consistent with Northern Ireland’s existing 2040 emissions reduction target, meaning that the reductions required in 2040 are the same as the average annual reduction over the carbon budget period from 2038 to 2042.
- This reduction in emissions would represent a continuation of the pace of progress required by the first three carbon budgets and would set a sensible next milestone on the route to Net Zero. Northern Ireland’s existing carbon budgets require emissions to fall by 15 percentage points between the First and Second Carbon Budgets and by 14 percentage points between the Second and Third. This recommendation would require a further 15 percentage point reduction between the Third and Fourth Carbon Budgets.
- This budget level would require emissions to reduce from their current levels of 21.3 MtCO₂e in 2022 to 6.6 MtCO₂e by 2040 (the middle year of the Fourth Carbon Budget period).
The recommended budget level does not include emissions from Northern Ireland’s share of international aviation and shipping emissions, in line with the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland). However, the Northern Ireland Executive should still aim to reduce emissions from these sectors, given that they contribute to Northern Ireland’s contribution to global warming and are included in the UK’s carbon budgets (from the Sixth Carbon Budget) and Net Zero target.
The Northern Ireland Executive should plan to deliver the emissions reductions required to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget through domestic decarbonisation action. The Executive should not plan to use international credits (referred to as ‘carbon units’ in the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland)) to achieve the Fourth Carbon Budget.

2.2.3 Contribution of the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway to meeting the UK’s emissions targets

The emissions reductions in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway deliver around 4% of the overall abatement required to meet the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget (Figure 2.3), rising to 5% of that needed to meet the 2050 Net Zero target.

The figure shows Northern Ireland’s contribution to meeting the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget. The Committee has recommended that the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget is set at a level requiring an 87% reduction in emissions levels by 2040 (the middle year of the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget period), compared to 1990. Excluding international aviation and shipping, this required UK-wide reduction is 90% from 1990.
Northern Ireland’s proposed contribution to UK emissions reduction is slightly smaller than Northern Ireland’s share of current UK emissions (4.8% in 2022).
The share grows between 2040 and 2050 because Northern Ireland’s share of total UK engineered removals grows over this period, as a result of the deployment of DACCS in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway.

2.3 Drivers of emissions reduction in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway

2.3.1 Emissions by greenhouse gas

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway reaches Net Zero across all GHGs in 2050. Net Zero CO₂ emissions are achieved sooner, in 2044 (Figure 2.4).

Delivering the pathway requires a significant step up in the pace of CO₂ emissions reduction, compared to historical trends. This allows Northern Ireland to reach Net Zero CO₂ emissions by 2044. CO₂ reductions in our pathway come mostly from the roll-out of low-carbon technologies displacing fossil fuel combustion, along with engineered and land-based CO₂ removals.
Methane (CH₄) emissions fall in the late 2020s and early 2030s. This is mostly due to the impact of on-farm measures and shifts away from red meat and dairy in agriculture, and reductions in methane generation at landfills.
- By 2050, methane emissions are 46% below 1990 levels. This is in line with the limit specified in the Act.
- This is a considerably smaller reduction than in our Balanced Pathway for the UK, where methane emissions are already 62% lower than in 1990 and are projected to fall to 81% below 1990 levels by 2050.
Nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions decline steadily in our pathway, reaching around half today’s levels by 2050. Reductions come mainly in the agriculture sector, along with smaller reductions from reduced fossil fuel combustion across other sectors.
Emissions of fluorinated gases (F-gases) continue recent trends of falling quickly. These are discussed in Section 3.2.11.

Net Zero CO2 emissions are achieved in 2044. There are also strong reductions in methane, nitrous oxide, and F-gases emissions.

2.3.2 Sources of abatement

The dominant contribution to the emissions reduction required to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget comes from electrification of key technologies across the economy, enabled by transitioning to and scaling up a low-carbon electricity system (Figure 2.5). There are also important roles for other low-carbon fuels and carbon capture and storage (CCS), nature, engineered removals, and demand.

Electricity: electrification delivers 55% of the total emissions reduction required by 2040 in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway. This comes from switching to electric technologies, which are now the clear low-carbon technology choice in many areas (including surface transport and home heating), enabled by decarbonising and expanding electricity supply. Many of the required technologies are available today and could be rapidly deployed, provided the right incentives are put in place.
Low-carbon fuels, CCS, and low-carbon farming: while electrification is the key technological decarbonisation solution, there is also an important supporting role for low-carbon fuels and CCS, which contribute a further 10% of the total emissions reduction required by 2040. We also include low-carbon farming practices such as the use of methane-suppressing feed additives within this category, which offer larger emissions reduction potential in Northern Ireland than the rest of the UK due to the large agriculture sector.^[46]
Nature: land-based actions to increase natural carbon sequestration and reduce emissions from land deliver 8% of the total emissions reduction by 2040. These play a larger role in reducing emissions in Northern Ireland than for the UK as a whole, due to the proportionally larger area of degraded peatlands in Northern Ireland that can be restored in our pathway. Woodland creation is also included in this category, with its contribution growing out to 2050.
Engineered removals: engineered removals contribute 4% of the total emissions reduction required by 2040 but increase significantly to 15% by 2050, driven by the deployment of DACCS to balance residual emissions and reach Net Zero.
Demand: demand measures make up the remaining 23% of total emissions reduction required by 2040. These include measures to increase resource and/or energy efficiency, as well as some sustained shifts away from high-carbon activities, including reductions in meat and dairy consumption across the UK and measures to incentivise farmers to diversify income streams.

In many areas of our pathway, most notably electrification but also the role of nature, the solutions required have been or are beginning to be deployed at scale globally. Costs of many of these have been falling quickly, and their role in Northern Ireland’s decarbonisation pathway is now clear. This reflects a narrowing in optionality in these areas and an increasing clarity on the best way forward for Northern Ireland to reach Net Zero. The challenge for government, markets, and regulators is now to enable these clear solutions to be rolled out at pace.

The breakdown of the emissions reduction required to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget is similar to that required in our Balanced Pathway to meet the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget (Table 2.2).

Table 2.2 Comparison of abatement sources in Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole
	Share of emissions reduction by 2040 in Northern Ireland (Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway)	Share of emissions reduction by 2040 in the UK (Balanced Pathway)
Electricity	55%	60%
Low-carbon fuels and CCS	10%	10%
Nature	8%	2%
Engineered removals	4%	6%
Demand	23%	22%

2.4 Emissions and removals in 2050

By 2050, the main source of residual emissions in Northern Ireland will be agriculture, with much smaller contributions from waste, industry, and other sectors. In our pathway, these are offset by negative emissions from land use sinks and engineered removals (Figure 2.6).

Across the whole of the UK, remaining emissions in agriculture and land use are balanced by the carbon sequestered by land-based sinks in the Balanced Pathway. The same balance does not occur in Northern Ireland, due to its large agriculture sector and lower proportion of tree cover by 2050 compared to other parts of the UK.
- In meeting Net Zero at a UK level, our modelling is effectively assuming that Northern Irish agricultural emissions are offset in part through farmers diversifying the use of agricultural land in Northern Ireland (for instance, moving to greater tree planting, peatland restoration, and energy crops – see Section 3.2.1) but also partly through land-based actions elsewhere in the UK. We discuss this further in Section 3.4.
Instead, our modelling for the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway assumes that residual emissions are offset by DACCS located in Northern Ireland.
- At a UK level, these additional engineered removals will be offsetting UK emissions from non-agriculture sectors. Outside the agriculture sector, our analysis generally assumes a ‘polluter pays’ principle, where those sectors with residual emissions, notably aviation, are expected to reduce their contribution to UK emissions to Net Zero, whether through in-sector emissions reductions or by using removals to offset ongoing emissions.
- Who pays for engineered removals is a policy choice. But if the ‘polluter pays’ principle is applied, a large portion of the cost of the additional DACCS in Northern Ireland could be expected to be funded by industries (especially aviation) that have residual emissions UK-wide in 2050, rather than necessarily by people in Northern Ireland. The Northern Ireland Executive will need to put the conditions in place to enable DACCS operators to locate and scale up in Northern Ireland.
- The balance shown in Figure 2.6 contains only a very small amount of residual emissions from aviation. This contribution would roughly double if international aviation emissions were included, but it would remain considerably smaller than the equivalent contribution to UK-wide residual emissions in 2050.
The residual emissions that remain in Northern Ireland in 2050 are mostly methane (primarily from agriculture, with smaller contributions from land use and waste), which is a short-lived GHG. All remaining emissions will be balanced by removal of CO₂, which is much longer lived (Figure 2.7). Overall, this leads to a peak and then decline in Northern Ireland’s contribution to global warming by 2050, as continuing shorter-lived methane emissions are offset by removals of long-lived CO₂.

Emissions sources in 2050 are dominated by agriculture and sinks are dominated by engineered removals.

The residual emissions that remain in Northern Ireland in 2050 are mostly methane (primarily from agriculture, with smaller contributions from land use and waste). All remaining emissions will be balanced by the removal of CO2.

2.5 Costs and investment in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway

This section sets out the whole-economy costs and cost savings under the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway. More detail on the methodology behind this analysis can be found in Chapter 4 of the UK Seventh Carbon Budget advice report.

Figure 2.8 shows the whole-economy costs for Northern Ireland between 2025 and 2050 under the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway. Costs are additional to a baseline of no further decarbonisation action and are presented undiscounted, in 2023 prices.^[47]

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway requires upfront investment, which generates operating cost savings. When combining capital and operating costs, we expect the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway to result in a net saving during the Fourth Carbon Budget period. On average there will be a net additional cost of around £90 million per year between 2025 and 2050, which is around 0.2% of GDP.^[48];^[49]
- Additional capital (investment) cost is expected to peak in 2029 at £1.8 billion and is driven by deployment of low-carbon technologies and changes in their cost over time. We expect economies of scale and learning-by-doing to reduce low-carbon technology costs, slowing additional investment costs (and in some cases generating savings) towards 2050.
- Additional operating cost is negative throughout the 25-year period, generating a cost saving relative to the baseline. Most sectors see operating cost savings due to increased efficiency and lower energy costs, however, engineered removals generates operating costs from running of new facilities.

On a sectoral level, costs follow a similar pattern as the UK. Key sector costs are discussed below:

Energy supply: the energy system in Northern Ireland is part of the all-island integrated Single Energy Market. Additional capital spending includes the Northern Ireland share of renewable energy deployment, dispatchable storage, networks, hydrogen and low-carbon fuel production facilities.^[50] Additional operating costs in energy supply are predominantly negative, due to the dominance of zero-fuel-cost renewable energy. The cost of expanding the power system to meet increased demand from sectors (including surface transport, residential buildings, and engineered removals) is captured in the end-use sectors’ operating costs.
Residential buildings: significant investment will be required in the buildings sector throughout the transition, primarily due to the upfront costs of low-carbon heating systems and energy efficiency improvements. These measures improve the efficiency of heating technologies, generating operating cost savings.
Surface transport: delivering the pathway for this sector results in cost savings from 2027. This is due to the falling cost of EVs compared to fossil fuel vehicles and increasing operating savings from improved efficiency and lower fuel and maintenance costs.
Agriculture and land use: additional capital expenditure includes decarbonisation of machinery and investment into soil and livestock measures. For land use, capital and operating costs include peatland restoration and management, and woodland creation and management.
Industry: costs are dominated by the electrification of industrial processes, requiring upfront capital costs and generating operating savings through increased efficiency. In Northern Ireland we assume that CCS becomes available from 2035. This is later than the rest of the UK, where CCS is assumed to be available from 2028.
Waste: Northern Ireland has very low levels of energy from waste (EfW) capacity, which is a key driver of waste costs at the UK level. Investment and operating costs in Norther Ireland are instead dominated by landfill and recycling (including waste reduction measures) and wastewater improvements.
Engineered removals: investment costs include production facilities for BECCS, DACCS, and enhanced weathering removals, and operating costs include maintenance and running costs for these facilities. They also include the cost of shipping CO₂ elsewhere.
- In order to bridge the gap between the Balanced Pathway and the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway, a proportion of UK DACCS has been added to the Northern Ireland Balanced Pathway, with costs starting in 2033.^[51] This addition has increased in-year capital costs by £200 million per year and operating costs by £210 million per year between 2033 and 2050.
- In practice, we assume the cost of engineered removals will be paid by polluters. This is an opportunity for Northern Ireland to become a leading player in the UK DACCS market, provided the sector can be made price-competitive for polluters seeking to offset their emissions.

The economic cost of climate change impacts to Northern Ireland is highly uncertain and estimates vary depending on the extent of warming that takes place. However, if Northern Ireland and other countries fail to address climate change, the macroeconomic impacts on Northern Ireland could be high.

Chapter 3: Emissions reductions by sector in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway

Introduction and key messages

This chapter describes what the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway looks like for each sector, setting out the key measures that combine to reduce emissions and the priority actions required to deliver the pathway.

Our key messages are:

The make-up of current emissions in Northern Ireland is different from that in the UK, with current per-capita emissions nearly double those in the UK.
Multiple sectors will need to deliver substantial emissions reductions to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget, particularly agriculture, surface transport, energy supply, and buildings.
Agriculture is Northern Ireland’s highest-emitting sector, and will remain so throughout the transition to Net Zero. However, there are opportunities to reduce agricultural emissions through low-carbon farming practices and technologies, as well as measures to reduce livestock numbers. In our pathway, these allow the sector’s emissions to fall by 42% by 2040.
Switching to electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps will be central to reducing emissions from transport and buildings.
Roll-out of these technologies will need to be supported by the rapid decarbonisation and expansion of the electricity system. Introducing a government-backed policy to drive rapid deployment of renewables, such as a contract for difference scheme, would be a key enabler of this.

3.1 Sectoral contributions to emissions reduction

3.1.1 Emissions reductions by sector

Meeting the recommended Fourth Carbon Budget will require contributions across all sectors (Figure 3.1). In our Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway, agriculture emissions fall but remain dominant. The emissions in all other sectors also fall. This will depend on switching to efficient, low-carbon technologies and reducing demand for high-carbon activities in a range of key areas.

Agriculture and land use: agriculture is the dominant sector throughout the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway. Emissions fall by 42% by 2040 (compared to 2022), through a combination of low-carbon farming practices and technologies, and a reduction in livestock numbers. Diversifying uses of land also allows degraded peatlands to be restored and trees to be planted, allowing emissions from land use to fall by 56% by 2040 (see Section 3.2.1). Combined emissions in these two sectors fall by 46%.
Surface transport: surface transport emissions fall by 85% by 2040, primarily driven by the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), which we project to accelerate rapidly over the coming years as prices fall (see Section 3.2.2).
Energy supply: energy supply emissions are currently falling quickly, and this will need to continue. By 2040, roll-out of low-carbon generation allows the electricity system to expand and emissions to fall by 95% (see Section 3.2.3).
Residential buildings: residential buildings emissions fall by 74% by 2040, with the largest share coming from households switching to low-carbon heating, mostly heat pumps (see Section 3.2.4).
Industry: industry emissions fall by 73% by 2040, with electrification of industrial heat processes making the largest contribution (see Section 3.2.5).
Engineered removals: deployment of engineered removals ramps up quickly from the Fourth Carbon Budget period onwards, due to the use of direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway to bridge the gap to Net Zero. This is the most uncertain element of our pathway. The are options other than DACCS which the Northern Ireland Executive could consider (see Section 3.2.11).

In this report, we present the pathway in CCC modelled sectors, as these are the sectors in which the modelling for the pathway was undertaken. See Annex 2 for details of how the CCC sectors correspond to the sectors defined in the Act and a chart showing sectoral emissions trajectories in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway for these sectors.

A graph of different colored lines

Description automatically generated

3.1.2 Emissions reductions during each carbon budget period

Historically, the largest share of emissions reduction has come in energy supply. Going forward, action will need to broaden to other sectors (Figure 3.2).

In our pathway, over three-fifths of the emissions reductions required to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget will come from domestic transport, buildings, and agriculture and land use. Addressing decarbonisation in these sectors is key for Northern Ireland to meet its targets.
Decarbonising the energy system and using this low-carbon energy to decarbonise surface transport and buildings is crucial to meeting Northern Ireland’s emissions targets.
Emissions reductions in agriculture and land use contribute 20–30% of the emissions reductions required during each period going forward.

3.1.3 Emissions in Northern Ireland compared to the UK Balanced Pathway

Emissions in Northern Ireland made up 5% of 2022 UK emissions. Northern Ireland has the highest per-capita emissions of all UK nations, nearly double those in the UK as a whole. By 2040, per-capita emissions in Northern Ireland will have fallen by around two-thirds, but will remain above those for the UK as a whole. The decarbonisation of many other sectors will mean that, by this point, the agriculture sector will make up the majority of per-capita emissions (Figure 3.3).

This is primarily due to the large agriculture sector, which made up 29% of Northern Ireland’s emissions in 2022, a higher share than in any of the other nations. Land use emissions are also considerably higher than in the rest of the UK.
Current per-capita emissions are slightly higher in Northern Ireland than in the UK in several other sectors, including buildings due to the prevalence of oil boilers, surface transport due to higher levels of car dependence, energy supply, and industry. Delivering the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway will result in Northern Ireland closing the gap in all of these areas.
Engineered removals per capita in 2040 are similar in Northern Ireland to the UK as a whole, but by 2050 are -1.7 tCO₂e per capita in Northern Ireland and -0.5 tCO₂e per capita in the UK as a whole.

By 2040, per-capita emissions in Northern Ireland will have fallen by around two-thirds but will be higher as a proportion of the UK-wide average than they are currently. The decarbonisation of many other sectors will mean that, by this point, the agriculture sector will make up the majority of per-capita emissions.

3.2 The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway by sector

The following sections outline the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway by sector, summarising historical emissions trends in each sector, the key measures in each sector pathway, and key actions required to deliver the pathway. Delivery indicators for sectoral roll-outs of low-carbon technologies and land-based actions are shown in Figure 3.4 and for the demand for high-carbon activities in Figure 3.5. Where it is available, they are compared to historical data.

3.2.1 Agriculture and land use

Combined emissions in the agriculture and land use sectors were 8.4 MtCO₂e in 2022. This is 3% higher than 1990, when emissions totalled 8.1 MtCO₂e.

Emissions in agriculture

In 2022, agriculture was the highest-emitting sector in Northern Ireland, accounting for 29% of Northern Ireland’s emissions.

Emissions in agriculture have increased by 15% from 5.4 MtCO₂e in 1990 to 6.2 MtCO₂e in 2022.

Livestock emissions increased due to a 14% increase in emissions from enteric fermentation (the digestive process of cattle and sheep) to 3.6 MtCO₂e, and a 26% increase from waste and manure management to 1.4 MtCO₂e.
This is mostly due to the rise in dairy cattle numbers (14%) over the period, which are more emissions intensive than beef cattle, the numbers of which declined by 8%.

Emissions in land use

In 2022, land use was the fifth highest-emitting sector in Northern Ireland, accounting for 10% of Northern Ireland’s emissions.

Land use emissions have fallen by 0.5 MtCO₂e since 1990 to 2.2 MtCO₂e in 2022.

Much of this decrease occurred in the 1990s, with emissions remaining flat since 2011.
The largest source of land use emissions is from peatlands. This was 2.3 MtCO₂e in 2022, a slight drop from 2.5 MtCO₂e in 1990.
Other land use sources include croplands (0.8 MtCO₂e) and settlements (0.7 MtCO₂e). Both subsectors have declined since 1990 (by 0.1 and 0.2 MtCO₂e respectively).
Grasslands on mineral soils are a significant sink in Northern Ireland at -1.1 MtCO₂e in 2022. This is unchanged from 1990.
Forestry has increased its sink from -0.4 MtCO₂e in 1990 to -0.6 MtCO₂e in 2022, largely driven by the growth of existing woodlands rather than the creation of new ones.

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway for agriculture and land use

By 2040, combined emissions for agriculture and land use are projected to fall by 46% to 4.5 MtCO₂e in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway.

Agriculture

In our pathway, agriculture emissions fall by 42% from 6.2 MtCO₂e in 2022 to 3.6 MtCO₂e by 2040 (the midpoint of the Fourth Carbon Budget period).

The key measures that combine to reduce emissions in agriculture are:

Low-carbon farming practices and technologies (49% of emissions reduction in 2040). The take-up of on-farm practices and technologies combine to reduce emissions from managing agricultural soils and livestock and from machinery use.
- Soils and livestock measures (27% of emissions reduction in 2040). The 29 measures that we have identified target livestock emissions (for example, feed additives to inhibit methane in cattle, breeding and livestock health measures to reduce emissions intensity, and better management of animal waste) and emissions from soils.
  - Given the dominance of livestock agriculture, around 81% of the abatement from these measures by 2040 is focused on livestock measures, with feed additives and waste and manure management measures (including anaerobic digestion (AD)) accounting for almost 60% of the abatement.
  - Cost-effective AD is limited to pig waste only, thus the abatement savings in our pathway are substantially lower than what could potentially be available (see Section 3.4). In addition to abating methane emissions, AD can produce biogas that can be upgraded to biomethane for use as a natural gas substitute.
  - Soil measures such as cover crops and reducing nitrogen excess make up a smaller share of the abatement, accounting for just under a fifth (19%) by 2040.
- Decarbonising machinery (21% of emissions reduction in 2040). Energy use emissions decline in line with the fall in livestock numbers and agricultural land area due to the land-release measures cited below. Machinery is electrified except for larger off-road mobile machinery, which switch to hydrogen. Should technology develop, however, then electrification could be used to decarbonise the whole fleet. Bioenergy is used as a transitional fuel but phased out by 2040.
Reducing livestock numbers (48% of emissions reduction in 2040). Cattle and sheep numbers fall by 31% by 2040 due to changes in agricultural policy that enable livestock farmers to diversify income streams beyond agricultural production (Figure 3.5a); a shift in UK-wide consumption towards lower-carbon foods, with average meat consumption falling by 25% by 2040 compared to 2019 (Figure 3.5b) with a steeper reduction in red meat consumption, and average dairy consumption falling by 20% by 2040 over the same period, both of which are in line with our UK Balanced Pathway; and improvements in productivity from measures (for example, improving livestock health and robotic milking parlours) that reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions.
- This reduction in meat consumption requires going beyond the existing UK long-term trend, which shows a gradual fall in consumption. In recent years, meat purchases have fallen more steeply, with a 10% fall in overall meat consumption between 2020 and 2022. This represents a faster rate of decline than in our pathway.^[52] It is too early to tell whether this steeper-than-projected trend will continue in the long term or is a temporary response to the cost-of-living crisis, which saw an 11% decrease in overall UK food purchases by weight between 2020 and 2022.^[53]
- Most of the beef and sheep meat produced in Northern Ireland is exported. The rest of the UK represents the largest market by value of sales, which has increased since 2009 from 59% to 67% in 2021. Over the same period, sales within Northern Ireland decreased from 20% of total sales to 15%.^[54];^[55] Outside of the UK, the Republic of Ireland is the largest market.
- Non-UK markets accounted for around half the value of sales of milk and milk products in 2021 (up from 35% in 2009), while Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK made up 28% and 22% of sales respectively.
Four further measures (4% of emissions reduction in 2040). These are sustainable improvements in crop yields, reducing food waste, shifting some horticultural production to indoor systems, and nitrous oxide savings from the restoration and sustainable management of lowland cropland on peat.^[56]

Land use

In our pathway, land use emissions fall by 56% from 2.2 MtCO₂e in 2022 to 0.9 MtCO₂e by 2040.

The key measures that combine to reduce emissions in the land use sector are:

Peatland restoration and management (95% of emissions reduction in 2040; 62% in 2050). The largest share of emissions reduction is from the rewetting and restoration of degraded peatlands. This is significantly larger compared to the share peatlands make up of emissions reduction in this sector at a UK scale (55% in 2040) and is driven by the large area of degraded organic soils in Northern Ireland.
- In the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway, the area of peatland being rewetted each year rises from around 50 hectares to reach 1,900 hectares each year by 2035. This equates to 63% of peatland being under natural, rewetted, or restoration conditions by 2040, an increase from the current 18% (Figure 3.4a).
Woodland creation and management (0.5% of emission reduction in 2040; 16% in 2050). There is a delay between the planting of woodlands and the time it takes for them to reach peak sequestration rates. In the pathway, sequestration increases rapidly over the 2040s.
- Woodland creation rates rise from around 400 hectares per year in 2023 to reach peak annual rates of 2,800 hectares by 2036, with an 80:20 planting split between new broadleaf and conifer woodlands. The proportion of woodland cover rises from the current 8% to 12% in 2040, and 15% by 2050 (Figure 3.4b).
Agroforestry and hedgerows (3% of emission reduction in 2040; 10% in 2050). Increasing trees and hedges on farms supports continued food production alongside sequestration in vegetation and soils. In the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway, the area managed as agroforestry increases by just over 500 hectares each year.
Energy crops (2% of emission reduction in 2040; 12% in 2050). The use of perennial crops of miscanthus, short-rotation coppice, and short-rotation forestry, combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS), can support removal (see Section 3.2.11). Planting of these crops also sequesters carbon retained in situ, which is accounted here. Current rates of planting are unknown for Northern Ireland. We assume levels rise from 2027, reaching annual rates of 1,300 hectares in 2037, which is then maintained.

Key actions to deliver the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway in agriculture and land use

Policy in the agriculture and land use sectors is largely devolved. The key recommended actions for the Northern Ireland Executive are as follows:

Provide long-term certainty on public funding for farming practices and technologies which reduce emissions from managing crops and livestock. As part of this, ensure low-regret and low-cost measures are taken up through regulations or minimum requirements in agricultural support mechanisms, especially when they can deliver efficiency improvements.
Support a shift in average meat and dairy consumption towards lower-carbon foods. The most promising levers include replacing a small amount of meat and dairy content in pre-prepared meals with plant whole foods or alternative proteins; increasing choice and availability of lower-carbon foods in public procurement, restaurants, and supermarkets; and supporting novel alternative proteins with improved taste and texture.
Provide incentives and address barriers for farmers and land managers to diversify land use and management into woodland creation, peatland restoration, bioenergy crops, and renewable energy.

3.2.2 Surface transport

Emissions in surface transport

In 2022, surface transport was the second highest-emitting sector in Northern Ireland, accounting for 16% of Northern Ireland’s emissions.

Emissions in surface transport have increased by 10% from 3.1 MtCO₂e in 1990 to 3.4 MtCO₂e by 2022.

The increase in emissions is due to rising vehicle demand, driven by a 20% population increase, combined with a shift toward larger vehicles.^[57] These factors have outweighed efficiency improvements.
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a drop in emissions during 2020. While emissions have partially rebounded since then, they remain 11% below 2019 levels.
EVs are becoming more established in Northern Ireland, with around 14,000 electric cars on the roads in Northern Ireland in 2023 making up 1.4% of the car fleet, half the UK average of 2.8%.^[58]
The market share of new electric car sales increased from 9% in 2022 to 11% in 2023.^[59] The market share of new electric vans increased from 2% in 2022 to 4% in 2023, with electric vans making up only 0.5% of the van fleet in 2023.^[60];^[61]
Northern Ireland‘s network of public chargers grew to around 465 in 2023, a 27% increase from 2022.^[62];^[63]

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway for surface transport

In our pathway, surface transport emissions fall by 85% from 3.4 MtCO₂e in 2022 to 0.5 MtCO₂e by 2040.

The key measures that combine to reduce emissions in surface transport are:

Electric cars and vans (67% and 9% respectively of emissions reduction in 2040). By 2040, 78% of cars and 77% of vans on the road are electric (Figure 3.4c). New electric car and van sales are both expected to surpass requirements of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate and reach 85% of total sales in 2030. Although this is behind the UK’s 95% market share, Northern Ireland is projected to catch up with the UK pathway and meet 100% of new sales by 2035.
- In 2023, the market share of new electric cars in Northern Ireland was 11%, compared to an overall UK level of 16%.^[64] Our pathway sees sales of new electric cars reach 44% of the market in Northern Ireland by 2027, surpassing the UK ZEV mandate.
- Sales of new electric vans in Northern Ireland were 4% in 2023, compared to an overall UK market share of 6%.^[65] Our pathway sees sales of electric vans reach 50% of the market in Northern Ireland by 2028, exceeding the ZEV mandate from this point.
- Northern Ireland currently has the fewest public EV charge points per capita of all UK nations and regions.^[66] This shortfall needs to be addressed in order to enable the growth in EV sales required in our pathway.
Zero-emission HGVs (11% of emissions reduction in 2040). Our pathway assumes battery-electric vehicles are the option chosen to decarbonise all heavy goods vehicles (HGVs). However, there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact make-up of technologies in the fleet that will meet requirements for specific long-distance journeys or for particularly heavy cargoes.
- While the market development is at an earlier stage for electric HGVs than cars and vans, manufacturers are beginning to launch new models. Roll-out in our pathway scales up from the late-2020s, with 58% of HGVs on the road being electric by 2040. The UK Government’s commitment to end sales of new fossil fuel HGVs across the UK by 2040 (2035 for smaller HGVs) sends a strong signal to industry to invest in zero-emission HGVs.
Modal shift and efficient driving (9% of emissions reduction in 2040). Improvements to make buses and active travel more attractive, affordable, and accessible allow 5% of baseline car demand to switch to public transport and active travel by 2035, which is maintained to 2050. While car-kilometres continue to grow, modal shift reduces the growth rate compared to the baseline. The actual reduction depends on potential rebound effects, as EV owners may drive more due to lower running costs (Figure 3.5c).
- Modal shift for Northern Ireland is lower than the 7% switch to public transport and active travel for the UK as a whole, due to Northern Ireland’s more rural population distribution.
- This is an ambitious assumption on modal shift, underpinned by evidence on interventions in leading countries, such as Germany and the Netherlands, and in towns and cities across Great Britain.^[67];^[68]
- We also assume small improvements in average driving efficiency through improved speed limit compliance and eco-driving training for HGV drivers.
Conventional vehicle efficiency, other zero-emission vehicles, and rail decarbonisation (2%, 2%, and 1% of emissions reduction in 2040, respectively).
- While EV sales are still growing, it is important to reduce the CO₂ intensities of the conventional vehicles still being sold. This is achieved through fuel efficiency improvements to petrol and diesel vehicles, including measures such as light-weighting and hybridisation techniques. We also assume new car size distributions will be maintained at current levels – ending recent trends toward larger vehicles. Our pathway includes a limited role for blended biofuels, predominantly in HGVs and vans.
- We assume other vehicles such as buses and coaches continue to switch to zero-emission technologies. Recent investments such as Go Ahead’s £500 million commitment to manufacture 1,200 zero-emission buses with Wrightbus demonstrate this trend.^[69] Local routes will be largely served by battery-electric vehicles. Long-distance routes and coaches face similar challenges to HGVs, so decarbonise more slowly.
- Rail travel is decarbonised by electrifying parts of the network, along with a small role for hydrogen-powered and battery-electric trains in the medium term.

Key actions to deliver the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway in surface transport

Policy in the surface transport sector is largely devolved, including key enablers of the EV transition such as charging infrastructure as well as devolved responsibilities over roads and public transport. The Northern Ireland Executive has recently joined the UK-wide ZEV mandate, and successful implementation of this is the most significant policy priority for decarbonising surface transport.^[70] The key recommended actions for the Northern Ireland Executive are as follows:

Support successful implementation of the ZEV mandate. The Northern Ireland Executive has an important role in delivering key actions that can enable this, such as expanding provision of charging infrastructure and providing reliable public information.
This includes ensuring suitable planning policies and funding models are in place to support the development of charging infrastructure. To ensure consistency and reliability, the Executive should continue collaborating with authorities in the Republic of Ireland on cross-border charging networks, with particular focus on key freight routes. This would build on partnerships such as the Electricity Supply Board, a state-owned company in the Republic of Ireland, which operates the ‘ecarNI’ public charging network in Northern Ireland.
The Executive, local councils, and industry also have a role in providing reliable information on the benefits of EVs to help counter public misconceptions.^[71]
The Executive should consider further policies and incentives to accelerate zero-emission van uptake, working with major van fleet operators to understand and overcome barriers to uptake such as charging and access to finance.
The Department for Infrastructure should help to improve public transport services and active travel infrastructure, including by establishing integrated networks and dedicated walking and cycling routes, supported by long-term funding.

3.2.3 Energy supply

Emissions in energy supply

In 2022, energy supply was the third highest-emitting sector in Northern Ireland, accounting for 14% of Northern Ireland’s emissions.

Emissions in energy supply have fallen by 44% from 5.3 MtCO₂e in 1990 to 3.0 MtCO₂e in 2022.

The share of coal generation fell from 37% in 2004 to 10% in 2022. The last remaining coal plant in Northern Ireland – Kilroot – stopped generating from coal in 2023 and switched to gas generation in 2024.^[72]
The share of generation from onshore wind and solar has rapidly increased from 2% in 2004 to 41% in 2022, displacing generation from coal and gas. However, following the closure of the Northern Ireland Renewable Obligation Certificate Scheme in 2017, deployment of renewables has stalled, with only 0.1 GW of new capacity added between 2018 and 2023.
Demand for electricity has been falling by around 1% per year since 2009.

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway for energy supply

In our pathway, energy supply emissions fall by 95% from 3.0 MtCO₂e in 2022 to 0.2 MtCO₂e by 2040.

Electricity supply

Northern Ireland is part of the all-island Integrated Single Electricity Market (I-SEM). Therefore, deployment of low-carbon technologies in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, as well as interconnection with neighbouring markets, can help to displace unabated gas generation in Northern Ireland. The Republic of Ireland has targets to achieve Net Zero emissions by 2050 and to supply 80% of electricity demand from renewables by 2030.^[73]

Our modelling approach is consistent with our electricity system modelling for our advice on the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget, and models the I-SEM at plant level on an hourly basis out to 2050. We have dimensioned the modelled electricity system to be resilient at the 20-year return period (that is, to a 1-in-20 adverse weather year). Emissions, generation and variable costs are based on the weather corresponding to an average emissions year.

The key elements of the future electricity supply system in our pathway are:

Electricity demand. Annual electricity demand more than doubles from 7 TWh in 2022 to 16 TWh by 2040. This reflects the increasing electrification of transport, buildings, and industry.
Variable renewables (83% of generation in 2040).^[74] Renewables have an essential role to play in achieving Net Zero and meeting the vast majority of demand.
- In our pathway, variable renewables capacity increases from 1.8 GW in 2023 to 5.5 GW by 2040, including a mix of offshore wind, onshore wind, and solar.
- This capacity provides 10 TWh of renewable generation in 2040 (Figure 3.4d).
Dispatchable generation (17% of generation in 2040). This refers to sources of generation that can be planned with a high degree of confidence to provide flexible, controllable electricity. Dispatchable generation will be required to provide security of supply, in particular during periods of low production from variable, weather-dependent renewables.
- Low-carbon dispatchable generation. Our pathway sees the development of CCS and hydrogen infrastructure enabling the deployment of low-carbon dispatchable generation (for example, gas with CCS or hydrogen-fired turbines). Capacity reaches 0.55 GW by 2040 (Figure 3.4e).
- Unabated gas. Our pathway includes occasional use of unabated gas generation to balance the system and ensure security of supply (less than 2% of 2040 generation). Our pathway therefore maintains a reserve of unabated gas capacity into at least the 2040s, with its use phased out by 2050.
Grid storage (1.5 GW (114 GWh) in 2040). With an increasing share of variable renewables, grid storage, such as batteries, can capture energy, typically when it is cheap, to provide electricity in periods when demand is higher, and electricity is more valuable. It can operate on short-to-medium timescales to provide flexibility when it is most valuable.
Networks and interconnection. The capacity of transmission and distribution networks will need to be increased at pace to ensure supply is able to be transported to sources of demand as electricity generation is increasingly decarbonised and demand grows. Interconnection between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is currently highly constrained as there is only one interconnector in operation. A new 1.5 GW interconnector is due to be fully operational by 2026.^[75] Connection of the electricity grid to neighbouring markets enables imports of electricity when it is cheaper to do so and provides a market for surplus generation. Our pathway deploys 1.5 GW of new interconnector capacity between Great Britain and the island of Ireland by 2040.

Low-carbon fuel supply

The supply of low-carbon fuel meets demands modelled by end-use sectors, such as for industrial processes, electricity generation, and anaerobic digestion of wastes for biogas. This includes:

Hydrogen. 1 TWh of hydrogen is available in 2040 from an industrial cluster around Derry/Londonderry. Capacity reaches 200 MW by 2040 and is a mix of electrolysis and gas reformation with CCS.
Bioenergy. In 2040, around 2 TWh of bioenergy resource is available in Northern Ireland, predominantly poultry litter and waste wood for biomass, and other dry bio-waste. These are considered best used to deliver emissions savings by incorporating CCS technology in producing small volumes of sustainable aviation fuels, biohydrogen, and other biofuels for domestic consumption. Abatement is also available from using biogas in industry and combined heat and power (CHP) applications, and additional biomethane injection into the gas grid to offset fossil gas. Biomethane is produced from upgrading biogas from anaerobic digestion of food, waste, sewerage sludge, and animal manures, plus captured landfill gas. CCS is also assumed available for both the upgrading of biogas to biomethane and the subsequent potential use of biomethane in gas power stations or hydrogen production plants.
Synthetic fuels. We define synthetic fuels as those produced using hydrogen and a source of CO₂ recovered from the atmosphere (via direct air capture, for example). They are liquid hydrocarbons that can directly replace fossil fuels in jet engines and shipping vessels. The deployment of synthetic fuels in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway is influenced by the current international emissions accounting framework.
- Aviation and shipping fuels are presently supplied from global markets. In the future, the most competitive locations with abundant low-cost renewables and large-scale fuel production supply chains are likely to produce and export low-carbon fuels.
- However, international emission accounting rules for synthetic fuels are currently unclear. They could require emissions savings for captured carbon to be counted in the country where the capture takes place. This would mean emissions savings from synthetic fuels are counted in the producing country not the place of fuel combustion (this does not apply to other low-carbon fuels that are not based on captured carbon, including biofuels, hydrogen, and ammonia).^[76]
- In line with our Balanced Pathway for the UK, we have conservatively assumed that all Northern Ireland synthetic fuel use is produced domestically to meet demand, enabling the emissions savings to contribute to Northern Irish emissions reductions.

Key actions to deliver the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway in energy supply

Policy in the energy supply sector is largely devolved, but is also dependent on interactions between the Northern Ireland Executive, UK Government policies, and the I-SEM. The key recommended actions for the Northern Ireland Executive are as follows:

The Northern Ireland Executive should urgently introduce a government-backed policy for renewables, such as a contract for difference scheme, and reform planning processes to encourage investment in low-carbon electricity supply.
To support grid investment, the Northern Ireland Executive should update the Utility Regulator’s statutory powers to include a Net Zero mandate.

3.2.4 Residential buildings

Emissions in residential buildings

In 2022, residential buildings was the fourth highest-emitting sector in Northern Ireland, accounting for 12% of Northern Ireland’s emissions.

Emissions from residential buildings have fallen by 32% from 3.7 MtCO₂e in 1990 to 2.5 MtCO₂e in 2022.

Policies and markets helped to improve the efficiency of boilers and deliver investments in building fabric efficiency.^[77];^[78]
Emissions have fallen sharply since 2021, driven by high energy prices and mild winters.
Around two-thirds of homes in Northern Ireland are off the gas grid and use oil for heating.^[79] Oil heating typically has higher emissions than gas heating.

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway for residential buildings

In our pathway, emissions from residential buildings fall by 74% from 2.5 MtCO₂e in 2022 to 0.7 MtCO₂e by 2040.

The key measures that combine to reduce emissions in residential buildings are:

Low-carbon heating (67% of emissions reduction in 2040). Low-carbon heating is installed in all homes by 2050. In our pathway, this is all electric with no role for hydrogen in home heating. Heat pumps will play a key role, primarily as standalone systems, but also within communal systems, and it is essential that their deployment accelerates rapidly.
- In our pathway, the share of existing homes with low-carbon heating reaches 68% by 2040. The majority of these homes are heated by a heat pump (64% of existing homes by 2040, Figure 3.4f), either using an individual heat pump or a communal system.
- Annual heat pump installations in existing homes in Northern Ireland increase rapidly from 2025, reaching nearly 20,000 in 2030, and 50,000 by 2035. In our pathway, installation rates do not exceed natural replacement cycles – the replacement of a heating system at the end of its life.
- Northern Ireland, and the UK in general, are significantly behind on heat pump installations compared to other European countries. Our assumed compound annual growth rate for heat pump deployment is based on the rate of scale-up observed across a range of other European countries with comparable markets, including the Netherlands and the Republic of Ireland.
Energy efficiency (13% of emissions reduction in 2040). Energy efficiency measures include draught-proofing, loft insulation, floor insulation, and insulation for cavity and solid walls. These measures reduce heating energy demand by reducing the rate of heat loss.
New homes, lighting, electrical appliances, other household appliances, and energy-saving practices (20% of emissions reduction in 2040).
- Our pathway assumes that all new homes are highly efficient and have low-carbon heating systems.
- Our pathway assumes that all domestic energy-using products are decarbonised and/or replaced with more efficient equivalents by 2050.
- Our pathway assumes that some of the recent emissions reduction was due to behaviours that will be maintained into the future, such as reducing boiler flow temperatures, adjusting thermostats, and other steps to reduce energy bills.

Key actions to deliver the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway in residential buildings

Policy in the residential buildings sector is largely devolved, with the exception of certain regulations and product standards for appliances and construction products. The key recommended actions for the Northern Ireland Executive are as follows:

Develop policies to grow the market for heat pumps. Policies could include regulations, such as point-of-sale requirements, and financial incentives such as assistance with installation costs, through government funding and discounted finance.
Expand support for households with home improvements through the Northern Ireland Sustainable Energy Programme, focusing on low-carbon technologies and insulation.
Introduce regulations to ensure that, beyond 2035, all heating systems installed are low carbon, which will be supported by the upcoming Clean Heat Market Mechanism.
Put in place requirements on housing developers ensuring no new properties completed from 2026 use fossil fuel heating systems. Deliver changes to Building Regulations with stringent transition arrangements which ensure that, from 2026, all new homes are built with low-carbon heating systems.

3.2.5 Industry

Emissions in industry

In 2022, industry was the sixth highest-emitting sector in Northern Ireland, accounting for 10% of Northern Ireland’s emissions.

Emissions in industry have fallen by 61% from 5.3 MtCO₂e in 1990 to 2.1 MtCO₂e in 2022.

Lower emissions from the food and drinks, chemicals, cement, and construction subsectors have contributed to most of this reduction.^[80] The main cause is likely to be reduced output and site closures, which include a synthetic rubber factory closed in 1998 and a fertiliser plant closed in 2003.^[81];^[82]
Industrial subsectors with significant emissions in Northern Ireland include cement, glass, textiles, and food and drink.

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway for industry

In our pathway, industry emissions fall by 73% from 2.1 MtCO₂e in 2022 to 0.5 MtCO₂e by 2040.

The key measures that combine to reduce emissions in industry are:

Electrification (58% of emissions reduction in 2040). This is the most important measure in our industry pathway and relates to more extensive use of electricity for heat processes.
- There is growing recognition that electrification of heat should be the main route to decarbonising industry.^[83] There are electrical alternatives to most types of fossil-fuel-fired heating equipment used in industry.
- The proportion of industrial energy supplied by electricity rises from 20% in 2022 to 51% by 2040 (Figure 3.4g).
Carbon capture and storage (16% of emissions reduction in 2040). CCS is needed for tackling industrial process emissions. CCS becomes possible in our pathway once the Derry/Londonderry cluster starts operating in 2035, and is deployed at Northern Ireland’s cement works. It is assumed captured CO₂ is shipped to storage sites in the Irish Sea or the North Sea (although other options could be possible – see Section 3.2.11 f or further discussion).
Resource efficiency and energy efficiency (16% of emissions reduction in 2040). Using energy more efficiently reduces operating costs while cutting emissions. Demand for materials can be reduced by material switching, reducing consumption, and producing goods with fewer material inputs.
Fuel switching (bioenergy 7%; hydrogen 3% of emissions reduction in 2040). Most gas-fired industrial processes could in principle be converted to run on either bioenergy or hydrogen. However, in our pathway, bioenergy is prioritised for the cement subsector, where it combines with CCS deployment to deliver CO₂ removals. Hydrogen is used in certain processes which lack a viable electrification option, and its largest role is in the chemicals and non-road mobile machinery sectors.
- Hydrogen plays a smaller role in Northern Ireland than in the UK as-a-whole because its ceramics sector is relatively small and mostly electrifies.

Key actions to deliver the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway in industry

Policy in the industry sector is largely reserved. The key recommended actions for the Northern Ireland Executive are as follows:

Continue to work with the UK Government to ensure UK policy to support industrial decarbonisation takes account of the circumstances of businesses in Northern Ireland. In particular, the Executive should work to ensure industry has sufficient incentives to electrify and facilitate the development of plans to establish CCS.
Work with the regulator and other stakeholders to speed up the grid connection process for industrial sites planning to electrify.
Ensure businesses have access to appropriate information and support to reduce their emissions.

3.2.6 Waste

Emissions in waste

In 2022, waste was the seventh highest-emitting sector in Northern Ireland, accounting for 4% of Northern Ireland’s emissions.

Emissions in waste have fallen by 62% from 2.0 MtCO₂e in 1990 to 0.8 MtCO₂e in 2022.

Landfill methane emissions decreased due to the implementation of the EU Landfill Directive, which set targets to reduce biodegradable municipal waste going to landfill.^[84]
Emissions in waste have remained at a similar level since 2014.

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway for waste

In our pathway, waste emissions fall by 63% from 0.8 MtCO₂e in 2022 to 0.3 MtCO₂e by 2040.

The key measures that combine to reduce emissions in waste are:^[85]

Waste reduction from waste prevention (72% of emissions reduction in 2040). Waste reduction is enabled by improving resource efficiency, reducing food waste, and increasing recycling rates.
- Food waste is one of the biggest contributors to methane emissions from landfill, making up 30% of the average black bin bag in Northern Ireland.^[86];[87] Our pathway assumes a 39% reduction in total food waste per capita by 2030 compared to 2021 levels, which is aligned to Northern Ireland’s commitment under the Courtauld Commitment 2030 and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 12.3.^[88];[89]
- Our UK pathway assumes the combined recycling rate for household, commercial, and industrial waste, including non-household municipal waste, reaches 68% by 2035. The Act sets a recycling target of 70% by 2030 which, although not directly comparable to our UK level combined recycling rate, should be compatible with our pathway, subject to confirmation of which waste streams are included.^[90];^[91]
- Our pathway assumes the near elimination of biodegradable waste to landfill by 2028 across the UK – in line with the timing assumed by a recent feasibility study conducted for the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA).^[92] We also assume an elimination of all waste sent to landfill in 2045.
Landfill methane capture (17% of emissions reduction in 2040). We assume methane capture rates at landfill sites increase to 68% by 2040, up from 49% in 2022.
CCS at EfW plants (1% of emissions reduction in 2040). Energy from Waste (EfW) capacity in Northern Ireland installs CCS in 2035.^[93] EfW capacity is projected to decrease slightly between 2025 and 2050.
Wastewater treatment improvements (8% of emissions reduction in 2040). Nitrous oxide emissions for municipal and industrial wastewater treatment are addressed through covering and containment, membrane aerated biofilm reactors, and enhanced emissions monitoring. Methane emissions are addressed through advanced anaerobic digestion.
- Covering and containment, enhanced monitoring, and real-time control and digital twins are rolled out from 2027. Membrane aerated biofilm reactors are rolled out from 2033.
- Advanced anaerobic digestion is already in widespread use and is rolled out to all plants by 2030. Industrial wastewater improvements lag five years behind the municipal wastewater sector in our pathway.

Key actions to deliver the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway in waste

Policy in the waste sector is largely devolved. The key recommended actions for the Northern Ireland Executive are as follows:

Ensure policies to increase recycling and waste reduction are implemented as part of efforts to eliminate biodegradable waste to landfill and minimising fossil-derived waste (for example, plastics) being sent to EfW.
Set out options for installing CCS at Northern Ireland’s existing EfW plant. New EfW capacity should only be developed where a viable route to connecting to CCS can be established.
Enable improved monitoring of wastewater emissions and encourage investment in technology development and deployment to reduce emissions from wastewater.

3.2.7 Non-residential buildings

Emissions from non-residential buildings

In 2022, non-residential buildings was the eighth highest-emitting sector in Northern Ireland, accounting for 3% of Northern Ireland’s emissions.

Emissions from non-residential buildings have fallen by 30% from 0.9 MtCO₂e in 1990 to 0.6 MtCO₂e in 2022.

This decrease has been driven by lower emissions in the public sector.
Emissions in commercial buildings have grown slightly over this period, with growth from 1998 to 2010 partly offset by reductions in other years.

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway for non-residential buildings

In our pathway, non-residential building emissions fall by 80% from 0.6 MtCO₂e in 2022 to 0.1 MtCO₂e by 2040.

The key measures that combine to reduce emissions in non-residential buildings are:

Low-carbon heating (50% of emissions reduction in 2040). Current heating systems are replaced by low-carbon alternatives. Most heating is delivered by individual heat pumps, with a small role for district heat networks due to relatively low building density in Northern Ireland.
Energy efficiency (39% of emissions reduction in 2040). Deployment of a wide range of measures saves 31% of energy use in public buildings and 21% in commercial buildings.
Electrification of catering and other non-heat fossil fuel uses (10% of emissions reduction in 2040). Other uses of fossil fuels are electrified.
Anaesthetics (1% of emissions reduction in 2040). Our pathway includes a 40% reduction in nitrous oxide emissions from anaesthetics used in healthcare by 2032 compared to levels in 2019/20, through the use of waste reduction measures.

Key actions to deliver the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway in non-residential buildings

Policy in the non-residential buildings sector is largely devolved. The key recommended actions for the Northern Ireland Executive are as follows:

Introduce a comprehensive multi-year programme for decarbonisation of public sector buildings. This should set out strategic plans for when best to take the required decarbonisation actions in buildings across the public estate and should be supported by long-term capital settlements.
Develop and implement an engagement strategy to provide clear information to businesses about their role in decarbonising non-residential buildings.

3.2.8 Domestic shipping

Emissions in domestic shipping

In 2022, domestic shipping was the eleventh highest-emitting sector in Northern Ireland, accounting for 1% of Northern Ireland’s emissions in 2022.^[94]

Emissions from domestic shipping have decreased by 30% from 0.3 MtCO₂e in 1990 to 0.2 MtCO₂e in 2022.

International shipping emissions are excluded from Northern Ireland’s targets. However, they are in scope of the UK’s Net Zero target and Sixth Carbon Budget. In 2022, emissions from international shipping had increased by around 22% compared to 1990.

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway for domestic shipping

In our pathway, domestic shipping emissions fall by 66% from 0.4 MtCO₂e in 2022 to 0.1 MtCO₂e by 2040.^[95]

The key elements that combine to reduce emissions in shipping are:

Fuel switching (55% of emissions reduction in 2040). Existing and new ships take up engines and other propulsion systems capable of running on low-carbon fuels and electricity. The rate at which ships switch to these fuels is determined by the pace at which the technologies and fuels become available and cost-effective, as well as the impact of assumed fuel standard regulations.
- Low-carbon fuels and electricity make up 52% of total energy use in 2040. Our pathway includes a variety of fuels, all of which are likely to play a role in decarbonising shipping.
- The fuels used most in our pathway are low-carbon ammonia and synthetic fuels (produced by combining low-carbon hydrogen with CO₂ from direct air capture).
Efficiency improvements (45% of emissions reduction in 2040). This measure consists of a variety of technological and operational measures that improve the energy efficiency of a ship, such as wind assistance, propeller ducts, rudder bulbs, and speed optimisation.

Key actions to deliver the Northern Ireland Net Zero pathway in domestic shipping

Policy in the shipping sector is largely reserved. The key recommended actions for the Northern Ireland Executive are as follows:

Work closely with the UK Government to support uptake of low-carbon engines and fuels on vessels, and adoption of efficiency improving measures.
In addition to this, the Executive should develop policies to reduce emissions at berth and ensure there are infrastructure and incentives in place to reduce emissions on inland waterways.

3.2.9 Domestic aviation

Emissions in domestic aviation

In 2022, domestic aviation was the ninth highest-emitting sector in Northern Ireland, accounting for around 1% of Northern Ireland’s emissions.^[96] Between 1990 and 2022, domestic emissions decreased by 12%.

The main factors affecting aviation emission trends were the overall increase in demand for flights and the extent to which efficiency improvements, such as plane loadings, have offset increased demand.^[97]
International aviation emissions are not included in Northern Ireland’s targets. However, they are in scope of the UK’s Net Zero target and Sixth Carbon Budget.
- International emissions have increased from 0.06 MtCO₂e in 1990 to 0.1 MtCO₂e in 2022, a 106% increase. Northern Ireland international aviation emissions trends have seen large variation since 1990.
- Before the COVID-19 pandemic, between 2014 and 2019, international aviation emissions increased by 45%.

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway for domestic aviation

In our pathway, emissions from domestic aviation reduce by 5% between 2022 and 2040. This is due to the balance between expected growth in flight demand in the baseline and pathway and the emissions reduction achieved by efficiency improvements and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

The key measures that combine to address emissions from domestic aviation are:

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (71% of emissions reduction in 2040). In line with the CCC’s UK-wide SAF pathway, 17% of aviation fuel used in Northern Ireland is assumed to be SAF by 2040 (Figure 3.4h). Direct air capture will be required to produce synthetic fuels. See Section 3.2.3 for more information on fuel supply and section 3.2.11 for information on carbon capture technologies.
Efficiency improvements and hybrid- and zero-emission aircraft (29% of emissions reduction in 2040). Fuel, operational, and air transport movement efficiencies improve to reduce the carbon intensity of flying by 1.3% per year on average between 2025 and 2050. Hybrid electric aircraft uptake is assumed for the budget period; battery electric enters the fleet after the budget period.
Permanent engineered removals. By 2050, all residual aviation emissions are offset by engineered removals to balance long-lived CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels. For more information on removals technologies, see Section 3.2.11.

There is no demand management measure for the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway. Domestic aviation emissions to and from Northern Ireland are excluded from our analysis of demand management due to the importance of connectivity with Great Britain. Military flights are also excluded.

Key actions to deliver the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway in domestic aviation

Policy in the aviation sector is largely reserved, except for planning and consent regulations related to airports and Air Passenger Duty for long-haul flights. The key recommended actions for the Northern Ireland Executive are as follows:

Work with the UK Government to develop and implement policy – such as the existing SAF mandate and the UK ETS – that ensures the aviation sector takes responsibility for mitigating its emissions and ultimately achieving Net Zero for flying.
Support innovation and commercialisation of low- and zero-emission aircraft. Routes between Northern Ireland and Great Britain are good potential opportunities for decarbonising domestic journeys.

Although international aviation emissions are out of scope of this advice, they are within scope of the UK Climate Change Act (2008). The Northern Ireland Executive should cooperate with the UK Government to implement policy that tackles emissions from international flying. This includes ensuring any future increased demand for international flying aligns with the level of technology roll-out and is consistent with meeting the UK’s Net Zero target.

3.2.10 F-gases

Emissions of F-gases

In 2022, F-gases was the tenth highest-emitting sector in Northern Ireland, accounting for 1% of Northern Ireland’s emissions.

Emissions of F-gases have risen by 746% from 0.02 MtCO₂e in 1995 to 0.2 MtCO₂e in 2022.

F-gases emissions peaked in 2012 but have since fallen due to reductions in hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions.
An increase in the use of air conditioning and refrigeration appliances saw emissions increase until the mid-2010s.^[98] The F-gas Regulation (2015) then reduced these emissions by phasing down the amount of HFCs that can be placed on the market.^[99]

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway for F-gases

In our pathway, F-gases emissions fall by 72% from 0.2 MtCO₂e in 2022 to 0.1 MtCO₂e by 2040. The measures that combine to reduce F-gases emissions are:

Refrigeration (37% of emissions reduction in 2040) and air conditioning and heat pumps (36% of emissions reduction in 2040). This involves taking care to remove F-gases in refrigeration, air conditioning, and heat pumps when that equipment has reached the end of its life, as well as the use of lower-global-warming-potential (GWP) refrigerants in refrigeration, air conditioning, and heat pumps.
Inhalers (27% of emissions reduction in 2040). This involves replacing use of high-GWP propellants in inhalers with lower-GWP propellants. This can involve using dry powder inhalers (for patients who can switch to these devices) or using metered-dose inhalers with alternative propellants (for patients who cannot switch to dry powder inhalers).

Key actions to deliver the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway in F-gases

Delivering the pathway in F-gases will depend on a clear regulatory framework that stimulates the necessary innovation and deployment for decarbonisation. This is largely reserved, although we expect decisions around inhalers to fall under devolved health policy.

3.2.11 Engineered removals

Emissions in engineered removals

Engineered removals are measures that remove CO₂ from the atmosphere to permanent storage. There have been no engineered removals of notable scale recorded to date in Northern Ireland.

In the rest of the UK, there has been small-scale testing of some engineered removals, while globally some engineered removals are taking place, mostly in the bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and biochar sectors, and there is a growing pipeline of projects under development.^[100]

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway for engineered removals

In our pathway, engineered removals reach -0.6 MtCO₂e by 2040 and -3.4 MtCO₂e by 2050 (Figure 3.4i). The amount in 2050 is primarily driven by the need to balance residual emissions to achieve Net Zero.

Engineered removals are achieved through three groups of technologies:

DACCS (92% of engineered removals in 2050). DACCS is a group of technologies designed to extract CO₂ directly from the atmosphere through chemical and physical methods and send it to permanent geological storage.
BECCS (6% of engineered removals in 2050). BECCS is the burning or converting of a biomass resource in a process with CCS applied. By capturing biogenic CO₂ and sending it to permanent geological storage, BECCS is a net negative emissions process. In our pathway, it features in industry (specifically cement), waste, and fuel production.
Enhanced weathering and biochar (2% of engineered removals in 2050). These are removals approaches that rely on land- and water-based CO₂ storage. Enhanced weathering involves speeding up the natural process of rock weathering through grinding and spreading rock on land to accelerate its reaction with CO₂ in the atmosphere to form bicarbonates. These bicarbonates are gradually washed via rivers into the sea where the carbon is stored for centuries or more. Biochar as a removal involves heating biogenic wastes in the absence of oxygen to form a stable carbon-rich biochar, which is resistant to breaking down and can be spread onto and absorbed by soils.
- In our pathway, enhanced weathering and biochar make only a small contribution.
- Recent developments indicate they have significant potential, but more work is needed to confirm and quantify this.^[101];^[102]

In our pathway, engineered removals start contributing around 2030, initially at extremely low levels through enhanced weathering and biochar only, followed by BECCS and DACCS from 2035 when CCS infrastructure becomes available.

In the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway, we have assumed that the majority of removals are delivered with DACCS, however there are other options the Northern Ireland Executive could consider (see Section 3.4 for more details).

Storage of captured CO₂

For DACCS and BECCS to be viable, there must be infrastructure to transport and store the CO₂ they capture. With no CO₂ storage capacity expected to be available in Northern Ireland itself, it would need to be piped or shipped to an alternative storage location. Options for this include shipping to the UK or elsewhere for injection into pipelines running to permanent geological stores, or collaboration with the Republic of Ireland on infrastructure to link to potential future storage locations there.

Most of the UK’s promising locations for permanent storage of CO₂ are in the North Sea and eastern Irish Sea, which is problematic given the lack of proximity to Northern Ireland. As such, if captured CO₂ is to be stored in the UK, it would likely need to be shipped to a CCS cluster in Great Britain for injection into pipelines running to these stores. It could alternatively be shipped elsewhere for storage overseas. Ervia in the Republic of Ireland is exploring such an approach in collaboration with the Northern Lights project in Norway.^[103]
Assuming shipping is to the UK’s HyNet cluster, we estimate that it would add around £10/tCO₂e to the cost of CCS in Northern Ireland (see Section 2.4). In our UK modelling, we assume removals locate alongside CO₂ storage sites. In practice, a wider range of factors will matter, including cost and availability of energy, land, and skilled labour. It will be up to the Northern Ireland Executive to develop the appropriate conditions to overcome these additional costs to incentivise businesses to locate in Northern Ireland if it wishes to pursue this option.
The Republic of Ireland has identified potential geological storage for CO₂ in the Kinsale gas field off the coast of County Cork, and in the Clare Basin.^[104] Onshore pipelines are one option being considered for transporting captured CO₂ to these locations – if such pipelines are developed towards the north of the Republic, it may be possible for a relatively short additional pipeline to connect CCS facilities in Northern Ireland into this infrastructure.

More than any other abatement measure in the Northern Ireland Net Zero pathway and the UK Balanced Pathway, there is a rationale for avoiding overprescription with DACCS’ geographic siting. This is discussed in section 7.12 of UK Seventh Carbon Budget advice.

Key actions to deliver the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway in engineered removals

Policy to deliver large-scale industrial engineered removals, such as developing the associated business models, is largely reserved. The key recommended actions for the Northern Ireland Executive are as follows:

Produce a strategy for development of CCS infrastructure in Northern Ireland, considering both the requirements of industrial and energy from waste plants and its use for engineered removals. This should include assessing the viable approaches for transporting and storing captured CO₂.
Explore options and develop a strategy for deploying and incentivising engineered removals in Northern Ireland. This should include:
- Exploring options to make Northern Ireland a competitive place to site DACCS. To do so, the Northern Ireland Executive would need to ensure that the conditions are in place to attract DACCS operators to establish operations in Northern Ireland. This will require making Northern Ireland a price-competitive location for DACCS to take place, such as through low energy costs.
- Considering implementing policy to improve understanding and increase delivery of enhanced weathering and biochar at scale in the Northern Ireland context. Growing these approaches could substitute for some of the DACCS in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway. For example, the Northern Ireland Executive could further research the application of enhanced weathering on pastureland using locally sourced minerals, and explore how an increase in anaerobic digestion might produce feedstock applicable for biochar production.

The key indicators of the roll-out of low-carbon technologies and land-based actions in our pathway show continued growth in renewables, growth that follows an S-curve in the electrification of cars, home heating, and industry, a ramp-up in tree planting and peatland restoration rates, and growing contributions from low-carbon fuels and engineered removals.

The key indicators of demand for high-carbon activities in our pathway show distance travelled by car growing more slowly than historical trends and falling livestock numbers.

3.3 Contingency actions and options to go further

There are a range of uncertainties that could affect Northern Ireland’s pathway to Net Zero. In addition, there is a risk that policies could fail to deliver the expected levels of emissions reduction. In either case, it is important to monitor both the emissions trajectory and the underlying indicators of progress (see Section 3.2), as well as factors such as GDP, population, the GHG inventory, and costs, to enable early identification of a long-term risk of underperforming on emissions reduction.

Contingency options are action plans that can be implemented to deliver additional emissions reductions to make up for shortfalls in the pathway. As part of our advice on the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget (see Chapter 6 in our Seventh Carbon Budget advice report), we modelled a range of additional actions that could be used as contingencies or to go further than our pathway. Based on this analysis, contingency options that could play a role in making up shortfalls for Northern Ireland’s Fourth Carbon Budget include measures to accelerate roll-out of low-carbon heating and EVs, including through scrappage, and additional use of livestock feed additives.

As we approach the Fourth Carbon Budget period, EVs and heat pumps will make up 100% of all new cars and heating systems sold. Therefore, the biggest opportunities for contingencies come from measures that can accelerate the rate of stock turnover.
- Scrappage schemes that incentivise owners of older, less efficient fossil fuel cars and boilers to replace these before end-of-life can be implemented relatively quickly, subject to market capacity. It makes sense to implement such schemes, if they are needed, once the new low-carbon technology markets have scaled up to become the dominant choice. Early scrappage in these areas is not included in the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway but could provide an option to go faster or to catch up if emissions reductions fall off track.
- Implementing these could deliver sizeable emissions savings by helping the fleet switch over sooner, although there would be some cost in both the fiscal incentives needed and the lost asset life, as well as a risk of increasing imported emissions due to embedded production emissions. For older cars, the emissions savings and the falling costs of EVs mean that some level of early scrappage is likely to be cost effective and reduce emissions, including taking account of embedded emissions.^[105]
- Earlier action to enable these markets to scale up sooner, such as incentives to grow consumer demand and investment in supply chains, could also have a sizeable effect in reducing emissions by increasing the number of EVs and heat pumps that have been sold by the time of the Fourth Carbon Budget.
Given the large share of emissions coming from livestock agriculture, additional use of methane-suppressing livestock feed additives could also provide a valuable contingency option. These measures are included among the low-carbon farming measures and technologies in our pathway, but there may be scope for further development and deployment of additives beyond those considered.
- An example is Asparagopsis, which recent studies suggest could significantly reduce ruminant methane emissions.^[106];^[107] We have not included this in our pathway due to concerns about potential environmental and health impacts of its use, so further research would be required to address these issues.
- Northern Ireland may be able to take a lead on early development, trials, and deployment of such additives, given its large agriculture sector.

3.4 Alternative options for meeting Net Zero

While we have bridged the gap to Net Zero by including an allocation of DACCS within the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway, in practice there could be a range of possible approaches to help abate the residual emissions and reduce the implied dependency on DACCS. We explore these in this section.

3.4.1 Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage

There could be a role for some additional BECCS, either instead of, or alongside DACCS. Both require CCS infrastructure, so have some shared dependencies.

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway includes a small amount of BECCS (-0.1 MtCO₂ in 2040, growing to -0.2 MtCO₂ by 2050). This is located in industry (specifically cement), energy from waste, and fuel production plants (see Section 3.2).
In addition, it may be feasible to develop additional BECCS for either power generation, hydrogen production, or biofuel production in Northern Ireland. BECCS plants for these three purposes deliver -19 MtCO₂ of engineered removals by 2050 in our UK-wide Balanced Pathway. So locating around one-sixth of this in Northern Ireland would be sufficient to bridge the gap to Net Zero.
In our analysis, the location of these BECCS uses is determined based on a range of factors, including aiming to be close to areas where the biomass is grown. In our UK-wide Balanced Pathway, we assume that around 4% of land area used for energy crops is located in Northern Ireland, based on an assessment of land suitability and availability (see Section 3.2.1). Due to the types of crops grown, however, this translates to only around 1% of harvestable energy crop yield by 2040. Increasing this may provide enhanced justification for more BECCS being located in Northern Ireland.^[108]
Both DACCS and BECCS rely on CCS infrastructure, in particular access to permanent geological storage and transportation infrastructure to move the captured CO₂ to these stores (see Section 3.2.11).
Carbon capture and usage (CCU), where captured CO₂ is used in products or industrial processes, only features in our pathway in the form of synthetic fuel production. Additional CCU could potentially make a valuable contribution by allowing CO₂ to be captured without needing to be transported to storage. This could be an option in Northern Ireland, subject to the extent that each process re-releases the embedded CO₂.

3.4.2 Enhanced weathering and biochar

The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway also includes a small contribution from these removal techniques (see Section 3.2.11), but research suggests that there could be significantly greater potential than we have currently assumed, although this is highly uncertain.

Research programmes have supported improved modelling and field trials for both enhanced weathering and biochar in the UK.^[109];^[110] Assessments of the technical potential of these techniques across the UK as a whole range from -3 MtCO₂ to around -30 MtCO₂ for enhanced weathering in 2050 and 0 MtCO₂ to -20 MtCO₂ for biochar.^[111];^[112]
Given the high level of uncertainty, as well as the considerable policy and monitoring, reporting, and verification development needed to enable these methods to be included in the UK GHG inventory, we have only assumed a small contribution in our UK-wide Balanced Pathway, from the lower end of these potentials. A portion of this is allocated to Northern Ireland in line with the share of arable and rough grazing land in each nation, resulting in less than -0.1 MtCO₂ of removals by 2050.
However, if it were possible to deliver enhanced weathering and biochar up to the higher end of the technical potentials identified in the literature, then a proportionate Northern Irish share could be around -1 MtCO₂ by 2050.
- Two recent research studies have explored the potential for biochar-based CO₂ removals in Northern Ireland.^[113];^[114] These concluded that the biochar produced from digestate in anaerobic digestion plants (see Section 3.4.3) could be used to produce around -0.2 MtCO₂ to -0.4 MtCO₂ of CO₂ removals.
- Resources of basic silicate rocks suitable for use for enhanced weathering have been identified in Northern Ireland.^[115]
- Given the scale of estimated removals, it is likely that some additional DACCS deployment would still be needed to fully bridge the gap to Net Zero, alongside an approach based on enhanced weathering and biochar.
The application of enhanced weathering and biochar is a novel approach to engineered removals. There could be scope for Northern Ireland to play a leadership role in developing and deploying these solutions.

3.4.3 Anaerobic digestion of agricultural waste

Anaerobic digestion (AD) can be used to produce biogas from food waste, sewage sludge, silage and animal manures. The biogas can be upgraded via scrubbing technologies into biomethane and subsequently injected into the gas supply. This can reduce emissions both from the waste and manure and by displacing the use of fossil gas (in the near term by blending into the gas grid, and then in the longer term in industry or power generation). The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway includes a small amount of AD in Northern Ireland, based on a UK-wide cost effectiveness and feasibility assessment. However, there may be scope for greater deployment than this in Northern Ireland, given the large agricultural sector and consequently potential economies of scale, although restrictions on methane reductions in the Act currently prevent us from including this option in our pathway.

Our UK-wide modelling results in a very small amount of emissions reduction through AD deployment in Northern Ireland in 2050. However, research has identified that there could be greater scope for emissions reductions through AD in Northern Ireland.^[116]
- Applying AD more widely in our agriculture modelling leads to an additional emissions saving of around 0.4 MtCO₂e by 2050. This is based on estimates of the amount of cattle and pig manure available and the additional dry matter required (from crops or silage) as a co-feedstock, without assuming the use of CCS at any stage of the process.
- The savings could be larger with different estimates of available feedstocks or different uses of the resulting biogas or biomethane (including with CCS) – updated research would be required to build an accurate picture of the potential from this measure.
- Further discussion of the practical considerations of delivering additional AD, as well as how the captured biogas could be optimally used, can be found in our 2022 Northern Ireland Target Advice report.
We have not included additional AD in our Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway because it would lead to overall reductions in methane emissions beyond the 46% permitted under Section 1(3) of the Act. The extent of additional methane reduction can be limited by mixing silage in with animal waste in the AD process. But because the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway is very close to the legislated methane reduction limit (see Section 2.3.1), the permitted additional AD would still be minimal.
There could be value in implementing such a change regardless (accompanied by the required adjustment to legislation), especially given the further reductions in methane emissions would be delivered not through reductions in agricultural activity but rather by making more efficient use of the byproducts produced from this sector.
- AD is already an established industry in Northern Ireland, with familiarity already in place across the farming community. There are currently 84 AD plants installed across Northern Ireland, which is more than 10% of the total number across the UK.^[117];^[118] This could make the expansion of the sector more straightforward to deliver than in the rest of the UK.
- Digestate from AD plants (heated through pyrolysis) represents one of the leading candidate materials for use as biochar to deliver engineered CO₂ removals (see previous section).^[119] This suggests that there could be advantages to an approach that combines additional AD deployment with biochar-based CO₂ removals. This could also provide an additional revenue stream for farmers who install AD plants to treat the manure produced on their farms.^[120]

3.4.4 Acquisition of carbon units from elsewhere in the UK

Another alternative approach could be to bridge some of the gap to Net Zero by acquiring credits for more cost-effective CO₂ removals (in particular, land-based removals such as woodland creation) taking place elsewhere in the UK. This should only be considered as an option to go beyond the level of decarbonisation that can be credibly delivered through domestic action. Restrictions on the use of carbon units in the Act currently prevent inclusion of this option.

As discussed in Section 2.4, in our UK-wide Balanced Pathway, residual emissions from agriculture and land use are offset by negative emissions from land use sinks. In Northern Ireland, however, the large agricultural sector coupled with the relative lack of trees mean that this balance does not hold.
- Tree planting, energy crops, and peatland restoration rates are applied proportionally based on the availability of suitable land. This includes actions undertaken on land that is released from agriculture. But current levels of land covered by woodland and peatlands in natural or rewetted conditions are considerably lower in Northern Ireland, which reduces the capacity of land in Northern Ireland to sequester or reduce emissions.
- By contrast, agricultural emissions per capita are more than four times higher in Northern Ireland than the UK as a whole. As a result, given we assume a similar pace of decarbonisation actions across all nations in our modelling, agriculture emissions in Northern Ireland remain higher than the negative emissions from land use sinks through to 2050.
Therefore, in meeting Net Zero at a UK level, our modelling is effectively assuming that Northern Irish agricultural emissions are offset in part through farmers diversifying the use of agricultural land in Northern Ireland (for instance, moving to greater tree planting, peatland restoration, and energy crops – see Section 3.2.1) but also partly through land-based actions elsewhere in the UK.
One option for the Northern Ireland Executive would be to try to formally recognise these offsets through supporting their delivery by acquiring carbon units to allow them to be credited to the Northern Ireland emissions account. This would require a robust within-UK credit-trading system.
- This approach would likely be lower cost than the other approaches described. It would also better align with our UK-wide modelling, allowing removals (both engineered and land-based) to be located where they are most cost effective.
- Government incentives are likely to be needed to enable farmers and land managers across the UK to diversify land use towards woodland creation, peatland restoration, and energy crops. This approach could play a role in delivering these incentives, both in Northern Ireland and across the rest of the UK.
- We have not included this in our Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway because Sections 11(3) and 11(6) of the Act restrict the ability to meet the 2050 Net Zero target in full through credits for action outside Northern Ireland.
While there may be justification for considering allowing a limited amount of credits for other UK-based action, we would not recommend planning to use credits for action outside the UK at this stage. As we have set out in our UK Seventh Carbon Budget advice, the UK should plan to deliver the emissions reductions required to meet its emissions targets through domestic decarbonisation action. The Balanced Pathway provides a roadmap for doing this across the UK, showing how this can credibly be achieved.

It will be up to the Northern Ireland Executive to decide the best mix of these options (or others that may become available) to reach Net Zero.

In our modelling, DACCS roll-out grows slowly during the late 2030s and begins to grow at pace only after 2040. Therefore, the additional DACCS we have modelled only has a small impact during the Fourth Carbon Budget period, with the removals it delivers scaling up quickly from then until 2050.
As a result, we expect that a budget set on the basis of this analysis should remain deliverable even if an alternative mix of options is pursued.^[121]

3.5 Traded emissions

Table 3.1 shows which sectors are partly covered by the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).

Table 3.1 Sectoral coverage of the UK ETS
Sector	Covered by the UK ETS?
Agriculture	Not covered
Domestic aviation	Partly covered
Energy supply	Partly covered
Engineered removals	Not covered
F-gases	Not covered
Industry	Partly covered
Land use	Not covered
Non-residential buildings	Not covered
Residential buildings	Not covered
Domestic shipping	Partly covered from 2026
Surface transport	Not covered
Waste	Partly covered from 2028
Notes: Domestic aviation includes military emissions, which are not included in the UK ETS.

Chapter 4: Households and the economy

Introduction and key messages

This chapter describes the role of households in our pathway, and how households, the economy, businesses, and workers may be impacted.

Our key messages are:

The key changes households can make will be to buy heat pumps and electric cars when it is time to replace fossil fuel boilers or cars, and to eat less meat and dairy. Northern Ireland will also need to address international air travel demand, in line with the UK target.
Policy and business action will need to make household low-carbon choices easy, attractive, and affordable, and ensure trusted information is provided.
Households will benefit from more efficient technologies, less draughty homes, and cleaner air. For many households, changes to travel and home heating will lead to savings over the period 2025 to 2050, provided appropriate policy is in place.
The transition will also make the economy more resilient, from reduced reliance on international fossil fuel markets. Most sectors of the economy will see little change in activity other than switching to low-carbon heating and vehicles. Production of livestock agriculture will reduce, with knock on impacts for farmers and communities. The Northern Ireland Executive needs to engage with farmers and their communities, and support them to diversify their incomes, including towards woodland creation and peatland restoration.

4.1 Households

The transition from now until 2050 will involve changes that directly involve households. The most significant changes involving household choices cover four areas: cleaner and more efficient home heating, cleaner and more efficient road travel, keeping international flying close to today’s levels until technology develops, and a reduction in average meat and dairy consumption.

Electric cars and modal shift. The transition involves households replacing petrol and diesel cars with cleaner and more efficient electric cars, generally when a car is being replaced anyway. Our pathway sees electric cars making up all new car sales by 2035, which feed through into the second-hand car market. Our pathway includes a shift away from private car use to other modes of transport. Modal shift for Northern Ireland involves 5% of car-kilometres shifted to public transport, cycling, and walking by 2035, with the reduction in car kilometres primarily achieved in more built-up urban areas.
Low-carbon heating system and energy efficiency measures. The transition involves households replacing fossil-fuel boilers for home heating with cleaner and more efficient heat pumps, when they are ready to be replaced.^[122] Many households will install energy efficiency measures such as insulation.
Reduction in average meat and dairy consumption. Households consuming on average less meat and dairy reduces emissions directly from livestock and frees up land to enable peatland restoration, tree planting, and energy crops. It also helps avoid a scenario in which the reduction of livestock in Northern Ireland results in an increase in imported meat and dairy across the UK (reducing the net impact on global emissions).
Keeping international flying close to today’s levels until technology develops. International aviation is not included within Northern Ireland’s targets, but managing emissions from international aviation is a component of the UK’s targets.
Other actions. This includes other household actions which play a smaller role in reducing emissions, such as energy saving practices in homes; reducing waste, and recycling more; switching to more energy efficient electrical appliances (for example, more efficient fridges); and switching to electric cooking appliances.

We convened a citizens’ panel to explore the question of what an accessible and affordable vision of Net Zero would be for households, given the household low-carbon choices set out above and the associated costs and cost savings. The findings are presented in Chapter 8 of our UK Seventh Carbon Budget advice report.

With appropriate policies in place, households will benefit from lower running costs of electric cars and low-carbon heating. They will require support with the upfront costs of low-carbon heating, and policies to make choices easy, attractive, and affordable.

In our advice on the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget, we set out the findings of our distributional model. The model assesses the costs and savings experienced by 15 household archetypes, as a result of two illustrative policy packages that we assume will enable households to make the necessary changes to home energy use and car use. Our policy packages include support for upfront costs for home heating and action to reduce electricity prices.
We have not specifically modelled the electricity pricing system in Northern Ireland and findings may not fully apply to Northern Ireland. The 15 archetypes are selected to reflect characteristics of households across the whole of the UK (for example, income, car use, home heating system), so the spread of characteristics will not directly reflect the spread of household characteristics in Northern Ireland.
Generally, we find that under the two illustrative policy packages, most household archetypes save over the transition period (from 2025 to 2050) when considering driving and home energy use, compared to a baseline of no further decarbonisation action. Savings from lower running costs of electric cars and low-carbon heating and home heating grants outweigh the additional upfront cost of low-carbon heating.
In Northern Ireland there is a relatively high rate of car ownership and car km driven per capita compared to the rest of the UK.^[123];^[124];^[125];^[126];^[127] Generally, our modelling finds that households that drive experience savings overall across the period from 2025 to 2050 in transport, largely due to the lower running costs of driving an electric car.

The transition will bring wider benefits to households in Northern Ireland, helping reduce fuel poverty and improve health from cleaner air and less draughty homes.

Northern Ireland has a relatively high rate of fuel poverty. The transition provides an opportunity to reduce levels of fuel poverty in Northern Ireland, as insulating homes and installing low-carbon heating systems will make homes more energy efficient.
We expect the transition to Net Zero to deliver improved health outcomes, through improved air quality, better insulated homes, increased active travel, and healthier diets. There will be some costs of time spent on home retrofits and public transport, and, if a rebound effect (increased driving as a result of lower driving costs) occurs, costs of congestion.

4.2 Economy, businesses, and workers

Aggregate impacts of our pathway on the level of GDP by 2050 are uncertain, but likely to be small. However, the economy will be more resilient due to a reduced reliance on internationally traded fossil fuels.

We set out our assessment of economic impacts across businesses and workers in the UK in Chapter 9 of our UK Seventh Carbon Budget advice report. Here we highlight the elements that are of particular significance to Northern Ireland.

Service sectors. The majority of Northern Ireland’s Gross Value Added (GVA) is comprised of service sectors (75%). As set out in the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget report, most businesses and workers in service sectors will not see long lasting impacts from the transition, although some businesses may need support with upfront costs of transitioning to low-carbon technologies, such as heat pumps.
Growth sectors. A growth in jobs in home retrofit will be required. This will require supportive skills policy. There is also the potential to capture opportunities for growth in traded goods, including in areas where Northern Ireland has particular strengths, such as aerospace and advanced engineering.^[128]
Energy-intensive manufacturing. Manufacturing is an important component of Northern Ireland’s economy, although not all manufacturing is energy intensive. Industrial subsectors with significant emissions in Northern Ireland include cement, glass, textiles, and food and drink. A few industrial sectors will face additional costs to eliminate emissions. The Northern Ireland Executive should ensure the right incentives are in place for these sectors to switch to low-carbon production.
- Manufacturing is a significant component of Northern Ireland’s GVA (12%) and employment (11%).
- The most carbon-intensive industries, which make up a smaller proportion of GVA and employment, face a fundamental transformation to decarbonise their production processes. This will involve some additional upfront and running costs.
- By decarbonising early, manufacturers will be well-placed to take advantage of growing global demand for low-carbon goods in the long-term. This requires a supportive investment environment. There is a risk that domestic production is uncompetitive in the short-term as it transitions, which needs to be mitigated through policy.
Agriculture and food production. Northern Ireland has a particularly prominent agricultural sector and food production sector. Our Northern Ireland Net Zero pathway sees an overall decline in livestock herd sizes, with impacts on livestock farming. Farmers will need help to diversify their incomes.
- We met with farmers in Northern Ireland who highlighted the importance of farming to culture and community, their experience of weather-linked climate change impacts, the need for sufficient incentives, and shared concerns about impacts on jobs and communities. Livestock farmers are already contending with the impacts of climate change on incomes in an industry where, without subsidies, many businesses run a loss.^[129] Agriculture, land stewardship, and food production have wider importance for the rural economy, communities, and culture.
- Compared to the UK as a whole, agriculture has a more prominent role in Northern Ireland’s economy. ‘Agriculture, forestry, and fishing’ comprised 1.6% of GVA and 2.3% of employment in 2021, compared to 0.5% and 0.9% respectively in the UK.^[130] There is a higher proportion of GVA associated with food and drink processing (2.6%) than in the UK (1.6%) in 2021. In 2021, over one-tenth of exports to outside of Great Britain were food and drink exports.^[131];^[132]
- The decline in livestock herd sizes will have impacts on livestock farming and downstream businesses such as abattoirs. Farmers will need help to diversify their incomes, for example through renewables or alternative land management practices (such as woodland creation or peatland restoration). Government financial support will be needed in some cases to ensure appropriate incentives and returns.
- Not all livestock farmers need to be affected by the transition and a substantial livestock agriculture industry will remain. Some changes in land management may coincide with when farmers choose to retire. In 2020 almost one-third of farm holders in Northern Ireland were aged over 65 or older.^[133]
- As with carbon-intensive industrial sectors, there may be a case for measures at the UK’s border to ensure changes in agricultural production do not simply lead to imports of high-carbon meat and dairy. Given Northern Ireland’s specific circumstances, these measures will need to be aligned within the Northern Ireland Protocol framework. Our pathway includes a reduction in average UK meat and dairy consumption, which is needed to avoid a reduction in UK livestock being accompanied by an increase in imported meat and dairy.
Workers. Workers are vital to delivering Net Zero, and the Northern Ireland Executive should publish a Net Zero skills action plan. The plan should identify and address barriers to enable growth of the workforces needed to deliver the Net Zero transition. They should also work with communities, workers, and local businesses in areas of the economy that may be impacted by the Net Zero transition, including farming communities, to develop proactive transition plans that enable access to secure employment and business opportunities.

Annex 1: Priority recommendations

Table A1.1 Priority recommendations to the Northern Ireland Executive
Sector	Recommendations
Fourth Carbon Budget	Set the Fourth Carbon Budget at an annual average of 77% below the 1990 baseline for the period from 2038 to 2042. The Northern Ireland Executive should plan to meet the budget as much as possible through domestic action without using credits.Produce a Climate Action Plan and sectoral plans setting out the Northern Ireland Executive’s policies and proposals that will play a role in delivering the Fourth Carbon Budget and Northern Ireland’s other carbon budgets.
Cross-cutting	Speed up new grid development and the grid connection process for both distribution and transmission networks to ensure that the grid is ready to accommodate necessary clean power infrastructure, and also to enable electrification for businesses and households.Work with the UK Government to develop and implement an engagement strategy to provide clear, trusted information about the most effective actions for households and businesses in Northern Ireland to reduce emissions and the benefits of low-carbon choices, signposting to available sources of advice and support.Develop and implement a strategy for working with businesses and communities that may be affected by the Net Zero transition. This should include working with farmers to identify ways to diversify income streams and support farming communities.
Agriculture and land use	Provide incentives and address barriers for farmers and land managers to diversify land use and management into woodland creation, peatland restoration, bioenergy crops, and renewable energy.Provide long-term certainty on public funding for farming practices and technologies which reduce emissions from managing crops and livestock. As part of this, ensure low-regret and low-cost measures are taken up through regulations or minimum requirements in agricultural support mechanisms, especially when they can deliver efficiency improvements.Consider how Northern Ireland could take the lead on developing and deploying solutions that can reduce emissions on farms, including methane-suppressing livestock feed additives and anaerobic digestion.
Surface transport	Support the deployment of public charge points across Northern Ireland.Invest strategically to improve Northern Ireland’s public transport and active travel infrastructure. This will need to be supported by long-term funding and powers for local authorities and Translink to deliver these improvements.
Energy supply	Progress Northern Ireland-specific programmes and devolved policy to encourage investment in low-carbon electricity supply. This could include introducing a contract for difference scheme for renewables.
Buildings	Put in place requirements on housing developers ensuring no new properties completed from 2026 use fossil fuel boilers.Consider regulations so that beyond 2035 all new and replacement heating systems installed are low-carbon.Introduce measures to ensure that upfront costs are not a barrier to the roll-out of heat pumps. This could include providing support for households through government funding, similar to the Boiler Upgrade Scheme in England and Wales, incentivising discounted private finance schemes, such as green mortgages or zero-interest loans, or introducing point-of-sale installation requirements.Introduce a comprehensive multi-year programme for decarbonisation of public sector buildings. This should set out strategic plans for when best to take the required decarbonisation actions in buildings across the public estate and should be supported by long-term capital settlements.
Waste	Implement policies enabling improved recycling and waste reduction as part of efforts to eliminate biodegradable waste to landfill and minimising fossil-derived (for example, plastics) waste being sent to energy from waste.
Engineered removals	Explore options and develop a strategy for delivery of or access to the volume of removals necessary for Northern Ireland to meet its Net Zero target. This should include considering the role of and options for delivering direct air carbon capture and storage in Northern Ireland and reviewing the evidence on the long-term impacts and potential of enhanced weathering and biochar removals in Northern Ireland.Produce a strategy for development of carbon capture and storage infrastructure in Northern Ireland, considering both the requirements of industrial and energy from waste plants and its use for engineered removals. This should include assessing the viable approaches for transporting and storing captured CO₂.

Annex 2: The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway in the sectors defined in the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland)

The Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 specifies a set of sector definitions. In this annex, we summarise how these sectors map onto the CCC-modelled sectors which we have used in this report and in our UK Seventh Carbon Budget advice:

Agriculture is the same as the CCC’s agriculture sector.
Transport is the combination of the CCC’s surface transport sector with the
non-international parts of aviation and shipping but not including emissions from accidental vehicle fires or fisheries emissions.
Buildings is the same as the CCC’s residential and non-residential buildings sectors combined but not including commercial buildings and including F-gas aerosols from the CCC’s F-gases sector, recreational use of nitrous oxide from our industry sector, accidental vehicle fires from the CCC’s surface transport sector, and home composting from our waste sector.
Business and industrial is most of the CCC’s industry sector and commercial building emissions from our buildings sector.
Energy is a combination of the CCC’s electricity supply and fuel supply sectors, with a small amount of the CCC’s industry sector and energy from waste from the CCC’s waste sector. In this report, we combine electricity and fuel supply into a single energy supply sector, as fuel supply emissions in Northern Ireland are very small.
LULUCF is the same as the CCC’s land use sector.
Waste management is the same as the CCC’s waste sector but not including home composting or energy from waste emissions.
Fisheries is a small part of emissions from the CCC’s shipping sector.
International aviation and shipping refers to the share of such emissions that result from Northern Ireland activity. These emissions are not included in any of the Northern Ireland sectors nor in the targets under the Act, and so they are not included in any of the numbers in this report.

Figure A2.1 shows the Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway broken down into the sectors defined in the Act.

[1]

Copernicus Climate Change Service (2025) The 2024 annual climate summary: global climate highlights 2024. https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-climate-highlights-2024.

[2]

These estimates are based on the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report methodology. Long-term warming refers to the average level of warming over a multi-decadal period, as distinct from the warming observed in a single year (such as that referred to for 2024).

[3]

At the time of writing, long-term warming trends have not yet been updated to include 2024 warming data.

[4]

Copernicus Climate Change Service (2024) Warmest January on record, 12-month average over 1.5°C above preindustrial. https://climate.copernicus.eu/warmest-january-record-12-month-average-over-15degc-above-preindustrial.

[5]

World Meteorological Organization (2024) State of the Global Climate 2023. https://library.wmo.int/idurl/4/68835.

[6]

Palazzo Corner, S. et al (2023) The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization. Frontiers in Science. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744.

[7]

Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C-F., and Hare, W. (2017) Getting it right matters: Temperature goal interpretations in geoscience research. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075612.

[8]

Forster, P. et al (2024) Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. Earth Syst. Sci. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024.

[9]

Copernicus Climate Change Service (2024) Copernicus: June 2024 marks 12th month of global temperature reaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial. https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-june-2024-marks-12th-month-global-temperature-reaching-15degc-above-pre-industrial.

[10]

Copernicus Climate Change Service (2025) The 2024 annual climate summary: global climate highlights 2024. https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-climate-highlights-2024.

[11]

‘Overshoot’ refers to the temporary exceedance of a given level of warming, after which temperatures fall back to below that level.

[12]

United Nations Environment Programme (2023) Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again). https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/43922.

[13]

United Nations Environment Programme (2024) Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! With a massive gap between rhetoric and reality, countries draft new climate commitments. https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/46404.

[14]

International Energy Agency (2024) World Energy Outlook 2024. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024.

[15]

A tipping point refers to a critical threshold in the Earth’s system or related processes which, if passed, can cause sudden, dramatic, or even irreversible changes to some of the Earth’s largest systems.

[16]

Met Office (2023) What do we mean by a climate tipping point? https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2023/what-do-we-mean-by-a-climate-tipping-point.

[17]

Schleussner, C-F. et al (2024) Overconfidence in climate overshoot. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9.

[18]

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2021) Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/.

[19]

Smith, C. et al (2024) ClimateIndicator/data: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023 revision (v2024.05.29b). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387.

[20]

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2021) Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/.

[21]

Crippa et al. (2024) GHG emissions of all world countries. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. https://doi.org/10.2760/4002897.

[22]

Gütschow, J., Busch, D., Pflüger, M. (2024) The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.6 (1750-2023). Zenodo. https://doi:10.5281/zenodo.13752654.

[23]

Smith, C. et al (2024) ClimateIndicator/data: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023 revision (v2024.05.29b). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387.

[24]

Gütschow, J., Busch, D., Pflüger, M. (2024) The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.6 (1750-2023). Zenodo. https://doi:10.5281/zenodo.13752654.

[25]

World Bank (2023) Population, Total. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL. (Accessed: 10 December 2024).

[26]

International Energy Agency (2024) World Energy Outlook 2024. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024.

[27]

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2024) New Energy Outlook 2024. https://about.bnef.com/new-energy-outlook/. (Accessed: 10 December 2024).

[28]

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2024) Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. Synthesis report by the secretariat. https://unfccc.int/documents/641792.

[29]

Riahi, K. et al (2022) Mitigation pathways compatible with long-term goals. Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter03.pdf.

[30]

O’Neill, B. et al (2022) Key Risks Across Sectors and Regions. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter16.pdf.

[31]

Burke, M., Hsiang, S., and Miguel, E. (2015) Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15725.

[32]

Trust, S. et al (2023) The emperor’s new climate scenarios. https://actuaries.org.uk/emperors-new-climate-scenarios.

[33]

Trust, S. et al (2024) Climate scorpion: the sting is in the tail. https://actuaries.org.uk/media/g1qevrfa/climate-scorpion.pdf.

[34]

United Nations Environment Programme (2023) Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again). https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/43922.

[35]

International Energy Agency (2024) Breakthrough Agenda Report 2024. https://www.iea.org/reports/breakthrough-agenda-report-2024.

[36]

International Energy Agency (2024) World Energy Investment 2024. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2024.

[37]

Several organisations project future warming using different methodologies and making different assumptions, particularly on long-term emissions trends. For simplicity, here we refer to warming estimates associated with a 50% probability from the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024, rounded to the nearest 0.5ºC to avoid false precision.

[38]

[39]

International Energy Agency (2024) World Energy Outlook 2024. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024.

[40]

United Nations Environment Programme (2015) The Emissions Gap Report 2015. https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2015.

[41]

The baseline year is 1990 for CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide and 1995 for F-gases. We refer to this as ‘the 1990 baseline’ throughout this advice.

[42]

Northern Ireland Executive (2022) Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022, https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nia/2022/31.

[43]

Northern Ireland Executive (2024) The climate change (carbon budgets 2023-2037) regulations (Northern Ireland) 2024. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2024/215.

[44]

This is different to the 21.6 MtCO₂e figure we gave in our 2024 UK Progress Report as it excludes international aviation and shipping.

[45]

In this report, we base our discussion of sectoral emissions on our CCC sector definitions, which are the sectors in which the modelling was performed and align with the sectors used in our advice on the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget. In Annex 2, we discuss how these sectors correspond to the sectors defined in the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland).

[46]

The majority of emissions reduction due to low-carbon farming is captured within this category, but there is also some abatement within the demand category, corresponding to measures that improve the efficiency of current activities.

[47]

Our baseline generally maintains the stock of low-carbon technologies that exists today (primarily renewable energy and EVs), making adjustments for GDP and population growth.

[48]

GDP calculations use the latest ONS estimates of Northern Ireland’s GDP in 2022, inflated to 2023 prices. This is likely to overstate the cost of the pathway relative to Northern Ireland’s GDP in future years, as GDP is likely to grow.

[49]

Office for National Statistics (ONS) (2024) Regional gross domestic product: all ITL regions. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/regionalgrossdomesticproductallnutslevelregions.

[50]

Low-carbon fuel production costs account for domestic demand only. This is split between hydrogen, bioenergy and synfuel sources.

[51]

Emissions reductions from additional DACCS begin in 2035. Due to the capital construction period, costs precede emissions reductions from additional DACCS by two years.

[52]

Defra (2024) Family food survey. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/family-food-fye-2023.

[53]

Pastorino et al. (2023) The future of meat and dairy consumption in the UK: exploring different policy scenarios to meet net zero targets and improve population health. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/future-of-meat-and-dairy-consumption-in-the-uk-exploring-different-policy-scenarios-to-meet-net-zero-targets-and-improve-population-health/8F4D09F2A88EF2FA16E2E237B5F30B21.

[54]

Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (2023) Northern Ireland food and drinks processing report, 2021. https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/daera/Northern%20Ireland%20Food%20and%20Drink%20Processing%20Report%202021%20-%20Final_0.pdf.

[55]

Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (2012) Size and performance of the Northern Ireland food and drinks processing sector for 2009 and 2010. https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/daera/size-and-performance-of-the-ni-food-and-drinks-processing-sector-subsector-statistics-2010-with-provisional-estimates-for-2011.pdf.

[56]

Nitrous oxide emissions from lowland cropland peat are reported in the GHG inventory for the agricultural sector. Methane and CO₂ emissions on this type of peatland are reported in the land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector in the inventory.

[57]

Office for National Statistics (2024) Northern Ireland population mid-year estimate. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/timeseries/nipop/pop.

[58]

Department for Transport (2024) VEH1103: Vehicle licensing statistics data tables. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/vehicle-licensing-statistics-data-tables.

[59]

Department for Transport (2024) VEH1153: Vehicle licensing statistics data tables. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/vehicle-licensing-statistics-data-tables.

[60]

Department for Transport (2024) VEH1153: Vehicle licensing statistics data tables. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/vehicle-licensing-statistics-data-tables.

[61]

Department for Transport (2024) VEH1103: Vehicle licensing statistics data tables. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/vehicle-licensing-statistics-data-tables.

[62]

Charge point numbers for 2022 and 2023 are based on data from January 2023 and January 2024 respectively.

[63]

Department for Transport (2024) Electric Vehicle Public Charging Infrastructure Statistics: April 2024. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/662fa4e087bdbae4ab19ad75/electric-vehicle-public-charging-infrastructure-statistics-april-2024.ods.

[64]

Department for Transport (2024) VEH1153: Vehicle licensing statistics data tables. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/vehicle-licensing-statistics-data-tables.

[65]

Department for Transport (2024) VEH1153: Vehicle licensing statistics data tables. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/vehicle-licensing-statistics-data-tables.

[66]

Department for Transport (2024) Electric vehicle public charging infrastructure statistics: July 2024. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/electric-vehicle-public-charging-infrastructure-statistics-july-2024/electric-vehicle-public-charging-infrastructure-statistics-july-2024.

[67]

Mobilität in Deutschland (2017) Mobilität in Tabellen. https://mobilitaet-in-tabellen.dlr.de/login.html?brd.

[68]

CBS StatLine (2024) Mobility; per person, modes of travel, purposes of travel and regions. https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/CBS/en/dataset/84710ENG/table?ts=1695198666028.

[69]

Go Ahead (2024) Half a billion-pound investment in electric buses to spark a new era of green growth. https://newsroom.go-ahead.com/news/half-a-billion-pound-investment-in-electric-buses-to-spark-a-new-era-of-green-growth.

[70]

Department for Transport (2024) Phasing out the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 and Support for the Zero Emission Transition. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/676aae90be7b2c675de30a1f/phasing-out-the-sale-of-new-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-2030-and-support-for-the-zero-emission-transition.pdf.

[71]

Department for Infrastructure (2024) Attitudes towards electric vehicles in Northern Ireland 2023/24. https://www.infrastructure-ni.gov.uk/publications/attitudes-towards-electric-vehicles-northern-ireland-202324.

[72]

BBC News (2024) Kilroot: Power station generates electricity from gas for first time. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68681247.

[73]

Government of Ireland (2024) Climate Action Plan 2024. https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/79659-climate-action-plan-2024/.

[74]

In 2040, around 4 TWh of Northern Ireland’s electricity demand is met by imports from the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain.

[75]

EirGrid (2024) North South Interconnector. https://www.eirgrid.ie/community/projects-your-area/north-south-interconnector.

[76]

DESNZ (2023) UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990 to 2021, Section 1.8.2.3. UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990 to 2021.

[77]

Energy Saving Trust (2024) Northern Ireland Sustainable Energy Programme. https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/programme/nisep/.

[78]

Department for Communities (2023) Closure of Boiler Replacement Scheme. https://www.communities-ni.gov.uk/news/closure-boiler-replacement-scheme.

[79]

Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (2022) Census 2021 main statistics – phase 2. https://www.nisra.gov.uk/system/files/statistics/census-2021-main-statistics-for-northern-ireland-phase-2-press-release.pdf.

[80]

Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (2022) Northern Ireland Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2022, https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/daera/NI%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Statistics%201990-2022%20Report.pdf.

[81]

The Irish Times (1998) DuPont plant closure to cost 218 jobs. https://www.irishtimes.com/business/dupont-plant-closure-to-cost-218-jobs-1.132745.

[82]

Belfast Telegraph (2003) IFI factory sold to China and Finland, https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/ifi-factory-sold-to-china-and-finland/28160054.html.

[83]

Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (2024) Enabling Industrial Electrification. Call for evidence on fuel-switching to electricity: Summary of responses. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/66e013650f4ba0621b086702/electrification-call-for-evidence-formal-summary-of-responses.pdf.

[84]

Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (no date) Landfill. https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/articles/landfill.

[85]

This comprises 98% of emissions with the remainder due to composting improvements and rounding.

[86]

At a UK-wide level, household waste makes up around 40% of waste arisings.

[87]

WRAP (2024) Press release on food waste behaviours in Northern Ireland. https://www.wrap.ngo/media-centre/press-releases/new-data-show s-northern-ireland-households-are-throwing-out-food-they.

[88]

Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (no date) Summary of waste prevention interventions. https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/articles/waste-prevention-interventions.

[89]

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (no date) Goal 12 Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns. https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal12.

[90]

Our 68% target is a UK-wide target comprising municipal, commercial, and industrial waste. It is based on UK level recycling data and cannot be directly compared to recycling rates in Northern Ireland, which are defined differently.

[91]

Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (2024) Rethinking Our Resources: Measures for Climate Action and a Circular Economy in NI. https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/consultations/rethinking-our-resources-measures-climate-action-and-circular-economy-ni-consultation.

[92]

Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (no date) Update on policies to divert biodegradable waste from landfill. https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/articles/diverting-biodegradable-waste-landfill.

[93]

There is currently only one EfW plant in Northern Ireland, situated in the Belfast Harbour Estate. The facility can combust around 160,000 tonnes of waste annually.

[94]

Domestic shipping here refers to both domestic shipping and naval shipping.

[95]

We have used the DfT’s emissions model as the starting point for our pathway (other than for naval shipping and inland waterways and leisure shipping, which are not included in DfT’s emissions model and are based on the GHG inventory). The Northern Ireland Net Zero Pathway uses more recent activity data (from 2019) for most domestic shipping than is used for the inventory. We have used this approach as we expect the inventory to adopt a similar methodology for domestic shipping in the near future. As a result, our starting point for shipping emissions is slightly higher than in the inventory. The emissions reduction between 2022 and 2040 is calculated based on DfT’s accounting approach.

[96]

Domestic aviation here refers to both domestic and military aviation.

[97]

Currently there is no data on aviation turbine fuel supply to Northern Ireland, therefore the fuel efficiency of the Northern Irish aviation sector cannot be calculated.

[98]

European Union (2022) About F-gases. https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/fluorinated-greenhouse-gases/about-f-gases_en.

[99]

European Union (2015) The Fluorinated Greenhouse Gases Regulations 2015. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2015/310/contents.

[100]

Smith, S. et al (2024) The state of carbon dioxide removal 2024 – 2nd Edition. https://www.stateofcdr.org/.

[101]

UK Government (2021) Greenhouse gas removal methods: technology assessment report. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-removal-methods-technology-assessment-report.

[102]

UK Government (2021) Greenhouse gas removal methods: technology assessment report. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-removal-methods-technology-assessment-report.

[103]

Decarb Connect (no date) Ervia Cork. https://decarbconnect.com/project/ervia-cork/. (Accessed: 22 January 2025).

[104]

Geological Survey Ireland (no date) Carbon capture and storage (CCS). https://www.gsi.ie/en-ie/geoscience-topics/energy/Pages/Carbon_Capture_Storage.aspx. (Accessed: 11 January 2025).

[105]

Transport and Environment (2022) T&E’s analysis of electric car lifecycle CO₂ emissions. https://www.transportenvironment.org/uploads/files/TE_LCA_Update-June_corrected.pdf.

[106]

George, M.M. et al (2024) Effect of SeaFeed, a canola oil infused with Asparagopsis armata, on methane emissions, animal health, performance, and carcass characteristics of Angus feedlot cattle. https://academic.oup.com/tas/article/doi/10.1093/tas/txae116/7726778.

[107]

Ahmed, E. and Nishida, T. (2024) The anti-methanogenic efficacy of Asparagopsis armata: Could it be attributable solely to its bromoform content? https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0377840124002463.

[108]

International emissions accounting rules allow negative emissions from BECCS to be included in a country’s emissions inventory regardless of where the biomass is grown. In principle, this means that Northern Ireland could import biomass for combustion in BECCS plants. However, we have assumed a declining role for imported biomass in our UK-wide Balanced Pathway, given global governance and sustainability challenges. Importing biomass from other nations of the UK, though, could potentially be justifiable (provided the highest sustainability standards can be guaranteed and transportation emissions are minimised).

[109]

CO₂RE – The Greenhouse Gas Removal Hub (2024) Enhanced rock weathering. https://CO₂re.org/ggr-projects/enhanced-rock-weathering/. (Accessed: 4 December 2024).

[110]

CO₂RE – The greenhouse gas removal hub (2022) Biochar. https://CO2re.org/ggr-projects/biochar/. (Accessed: 4 December 2024).

[111]

Kantzas, E.P. et al (2022) Substantial carbon drawdown potential from enhanced rock weathering in the United Kingdom. Nature Geoscience. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00925-2.

[112]

UK Government (2021) Greenhouse gas removal methods: technology assessment report. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-removal-methods-technology-assessment-report.

[113]

Mehta, N. et al (2022) Evaluating the opportunity for utilising anaerobic digestion and pyrolysis of livestock manure and grass silage to decarbonise gas infrastructure: a Northern Ireland case study. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148122009557.

[114]

Bryden Centre and Centre for Advanced Sustainable Energy (2023) Opportunities for atmospheric CO₂ removal in Northern Ireland using biochar. https://case-research.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Biochar-based-atmospheric-CO₂-removal-NI-final.pdf.

[115]

Madankan, M. and Renforth, P. (2023) An inventory of UK mineral resources suitable for enhanced rock weathering. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1750583623001809.

[116]

[117]

Irish Farmers Journal (2024) Anaerobic digestion: gearing up for phase two in Northern Ireland. https://www.farmersjournal.ie/more/northern-ireland/anaerobic-digestion-gearing-up-for-phase-two-in-northern-ireland-835278.

[118]

World Biogas Association (2023) Can the UK meet its AD potential? https://www.worldbiogasassociation.org/member-press-release-opinion-piece-can-the-uk-meet-its-ad-potential/.

[119]

[120]

KPMG (2022) Supporting a renewable gas sector in Northern Ireland. https://actionrenewables.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/Action-Renewables-Biomethane-Report-October-22.pdf.

[121]

Negative emissions from woodland creation follow a similar profile in our UK-wide Balanced Pathway, with abatement growing quickly in the later years of the pathway. Therefore, an approach based on acquiring credits for tree planting elsewhere in the UK may have a similar, small, implied level of additional emissions reduction in 2040 compared to the Balanced Pathway, although this would vary depending on the type and timing of credit purchases. Other approaches would likely need to scale up more substantially sooner, resulting in lower emissions in 2040 in order to be on track to meet Net Zero by 2050.

[122]

In our analysis the majority of households (over 90%) switch to a heat pump. A small number of households, particularly homes where heat pumps may not be an appropriate solution, will install other measures such as less efficient direct electric heating.

[123]

National Centre for Social Research (2024) Car Ownership: Evidence Review. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6781339100e3d719f19217f1/dft-car-ownership-evidence-review.pdf.

[124]

Moneybarn (2024) Car Ownership Report. https://www.moneybarn.com/blog/latest-motor-news/car-ownership-report/#:~:text=Northern%20Ireland%20is%20the%20constituent,the%20lowest%20rate%20at%20522.03.

[125]

Office for National Statistics (2024) Population estimates for England and Wales: mid-2023. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/populationestimatesforenglandandwales/mid2023.

[126]

Northern Ireland National Travel Survey (2021) Travel Survey for Northern Ireland (TSNI) in-depth report 2021. https://www.infrastructure-ni.gov.uk/publications/travel-survey-northern-ireland-tsni-depth-report-2021.

[127]

Department for Transport (2024) NTS0409: Average distance travelled by purpose and main mode: England, 2002 onwards. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-travel-survey-2023.

[128]

Invest Northern Ireland (2023) Advanced manufacturing and engineering. https://www.investni.com/international-business/our-sectors/advanced-manufacturing-and-engineering. (Accessed: 18 December 2024).

[129]

Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (2023) Farm Incomes in Northern Ireland. https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/daera/Farm%20Incomes%20in%20Northern%20Ireland%202022-23.PDF.

[130]

Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (2022) Northern Ireland Agri-Food Sector Key Statistics. https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/daera/AE1%2023%20197830%20%2022.23.175%20Agrifood%20Key%20Statistics%202022%20-%20Final_1.pdf.

[131]

Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (2024) Northern Ireland Economic Trade Statistics. https://visual.nisra.gov.uk/?body=entity/niets.

[132]

Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (2024) Northern Ireland Economic Trade Statistics. https://visual.nisra.gov.uk/?body=entity/niets.

[133]

Central Statistics Offices (2020) Census of Agriculture 2020 – Preliminary Results. https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-coa/censusofagriculture2020-preliminaryresults/demographicprofileoffarmholders/.