CCC Mitigation Monitoring Framework

This framework was updated in June 2025.

For reports published between 2022 and 2024, please read our Mitigation Monitoring Framework (2022–2024).

The UK, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland have ambitious targets to reduce emissions. Now the priority is to deliver against these targets. Our Monitoring Framework sets out the methods we use for tracking progress in delivery, which we report on annually in our progress in reducing emissions reports.

This is an evolving framework; we update our approach over time as targets change, when new data becomes available, and after major government decarbonisation strategies – such as the forthcoming update to the Government’s Carbon Budget Delivery Plan, due in October 2025.

Climate targets in the UK, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has a statutory obligation to monitor government progress in reducing emissions of greenhouse gases towards the UK’s carbon budgets and Net Zero 2050. The CCC also has duties under devolved legislation.

• UK targets: the UK is required by the Climate Change Act to reach Net Zero emissions by 2050 and meet a series of five-year carbon budgets over this period, which the CCC advises on. These are in addition to our Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, which are a commitment to a 68% reduction in emissions by 2030, and to an 81% reduction by 2035, both relative to 1990 levels (excluding international aviation and shipping). The 2030 NDC is a more stringent target than the Fifth Carbon Budget (2028-2032), as the Fifth Carbon Budget was set before the Net Zero 2050 target was in place.
  • The previous UK Government published its Net Zero Strategy in 2021, outlining how it expects to meet the Fourth, Fifth and Sixth Carbon Budgets with illustrative scenarios for Net Zero in 2050. It committed to providing a public update every year on progress towards these targets. Further detail and revisions to the existing pathways were published in the 2023 Carbon Budget Delivery Plan (CBDP). The CBDP also presents some unquantified policies which also contribute towards meeting these targets. The CBDP is due to be updated in October 2025.
  • Since 2009 the CCC has produced an annual progress report, as required by the Climate Change Act. These reports review the latest trends in emissions and track the key indicators that drive emissions, including market-based activity. We also assess the strength and credibility of government ambition and policy across the economy.
• Scotland’s targets: Scotland must reach Net Zero by 2045, as required by the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. The Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2024 shifted Scotland’s targets from annual to five yearly carbon budgets starting in 2026.
  • CCC provided advice on the four Scottish Carbon Budgets from 2026 to 2045 in May 2025, with recommended annual average emissions of 57% (2026-2030), 69% (2031-2035), 80% (2036-2040) and 94% (2041-2045) lower than 1990 levels (including international aviation and shipping). The Scottish Government must lay draft regulations for setting the carbon budgets by 19 August 2025.
  • Scotland’s Climate Change Plan is updated every five years, with a draft update due in 2025, and is accompanied by an annual monitoring report.
  • The Scottish Climate Act requires that the CCC also produces an annual progress report.
• Wales’ targets: Through the Environment (Wales) Act 2016, Wales has set a 2050 Net Zero target as well as interim targets for 2030 and 2040 (reductions of 63% and 89% respectively, compared to 1990 levels). Like the UK, this involves five-year carbon budget periods, although these are offset from the UK budgets with the second Welsh Carbon Budget (2021-2025) requiring a 37% reduction, the third (2026-2030) requiring a 58% reduction, and the fourth (2031-2035) requiring 73% reduction, relative to 1990.
  • The Welsh Government must publish a plan for each budgetary period before the end of the first year of the period, setting out how they intend to meet the budget. Net Zero Wales is the delivery plan for the Second Welsh Carbon Budget.
  • The Welsh Government must also publish a statement assessing whether a target or carbon budget has been met within two years of the date of the target (or the end of the budgetary period).
  • Welsh legislation requires the CCC to publish a progress report following each interim target and budgetary period.
• Northern Ireland’s targets: Northern Ireland has set a 2050 Net Zero target in the Climate Change (Northern Ireland) Act 2022. Again, this includes five-year carbon budget periods aligning with the UK carbon budgets, along with interim targets for 2030 and 2040 (reductions of 48% and 77% respectively, compared to 1990 levels).
  • The Northern Ireland Executive (NIE) has to publish an interim progress report for each budgetary period, monitoring progress against sectoral climate action plans, which are required by the act.
  • The legislation requires that the CCC produce progress reports at the end of each budgetary period, and following each interim target.

Our benchmark for measuring UK progress

We assess progress in each sector towards achieving the emissions reductions set out in the Government’s own plans, supplemented in places by the CCC’s Balanced Pathway*. The Government’s Carbon Budget Delivery Plan (CBDP), first published in 2023, is our current basis for measuring progress. This plan was published by the previous government, and an update is scheduled for October 2025.

• The CBDP comprises of a list of policies and their expected emissions savings, which when taken together would achieve, or nearly achieve, the Government’s legislated targets, and the 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution. The CBDP also includes unquantified policies that the Government expect to fill the remaining gap to the targets. The resultant sectoral pathways are not themselves targets, but they are the basis by which the CCC assesses how likely the targets are to be achieved.
• We assess the credibility of each listed source of emissions savings, considering the strength of government policy, but also delivery that can be expected to occur without further policy (that is, whether it is credible that a particular solution could develop without further intervention from government). This recognises the fact that many low-carbon markets are already growing quickly, and that the private sector has a proven record of innovating and delivering rapid transitions in technologies and consumer choices. This is captured in the ‘delivery mechanism’ and ‘enablers’ components of our scoring criteria (Table 1).
• In some cases, a source of emissions savings in the CBDP falls into multiple scoring categories. For example, a policy could have multiple components that receive different scores. Where this occurs, we split the emissions savings into multiple parts, so that our policy assessment scores can be more precisely allocated. This is also needed to reflect changes in policy since the CBDP’s publication.

The Government’s pathway is in line with the CCC’s in most areas. However, there are differences in the mix of measures involved. In some areas, such as our indicators, progress is also compared against the CCC’s Balanced Pathway, especially in specific cases where there is no target or benchmark from the Government.

• We assess progress according to our own sector definitions, which are aligned with the policy levers for emissions reductions. These are broadly similar to those in the Government’s strategies, but with a few notable differences (Box 1). We convert the Government’s pathways into our sector classification, to ensure that we are comparing like for like.
• Many aspects of the transition are inherently uncertain. The Committee recognises that progress may be faster in some sectors, and slower in others. This is acceptable, so long as the overall targets are met. We will highlight areas where government is on course to underperform, so that action can be taken to get back on track or reduce emissions faster elsewhere. The Seventh Carbon Budget included a cross-economy uncertainty analysis and introduced contingency actions outside the Balanced Pathway to address potential underperformance.

*The Balanced Pathway is the CCC’s decarbonisation pathway for the UK, developed for our Seventh Carbon Budget analysis. It is not a prescriptive path that must be followed exactly, but provides a reasonable indication of what should be done over the coming years.

Key outputs of our monitoring framework

CCC’s progress reports consist of the following core outputs to build a complete picture of progress towards meeting the UK’s emissions targets.

• Latest emissions trends. We analyse the latest emissions data, using provisional and final emissions statistics published by DESNZ, and compare rates of change to those required to meet the UK’s targets. To meaningfully assess trends in buildings emissions, we carry out a temperature adjustment, to remove the effect of changes in weather year to year.* We also monitor trends in emissions from imports, published by Defra.
• Indicators of progress. We monitor a wide range of indicators that measure real-world progress. They track the deployment of low-carbon technologies, demand for high-carbon activities, and also the wider enablers of the transition, such as public attitudes and the scale-up of markets. For our progress reports, we select a subset of these indicators that provide a meaningful and representative reflection of current progress. Download the list of indicators.
• Assessment of policies and plans. We have developed a framework to monitor whether the Government’s plans are on track to deliver their climate targets in each sector. This allows us to identify the key risks to meeting UK emissions targets. See Table 1 for our scoring criteria.
• Recommendations. Every year we make recommendations to government departments and other relevant bodies, outlining the next steps that need taking. We then score progress against these recommendations in the following progress report. The Government is not obliged to accept these recommendations and can pursue alternative routes to meeting targets where these exist. The recommendation scores are therefore not a direct determinant of our overall assessment of progress. Our score categories are as follows:
  • Good progress: the recommended action has been implemented in full or acted upon at the required rate to stay on track.
  • Moderate progress: some encouraging steps have been taken, but there are gaps that need to be addressed.
  • Some but insufficient progress: some steps have been taken but they are incomplete or are too slow to achieve the recommendation.
  • No progress: negligible progress has been made. Any steps taken by government are not credible or fall far short of the required rate.
  • Too early to tell: there is currently not enough information available or we have not yet been able to assess this recommendation.

*We temperature-adjust emissions figures by analysing the relationship between emissions data and quarterly Heating Degree Days (HDD). We use the difference between actual and 15 year moving-averages of quarterly HDD figures to calculate the adjustment required. The use of moving averages means that annual fluctuations in emissions due to changes in weather patterns are removed, while the impacts of longer-term climate trends on emissions from buildings remain visible.