Well-adapted food security system
Risk to the system from climate change: flooding, drought and heat (both in the UK and overseas) impact the food security system.
Objective
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UK food security remains at current levels, with no prolonged food shortages and minimised impacts from climate-related food price inflation.
- Proposed target: from now through to 2050, there should be no climate-related food shortages across entire nutritionally important groups in the UK.
- Proposed target: from now through to 2050, the impact of climate-related food price inflation on household budgets should be minimised.
Actions
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Supply chain operations: investment in resilient production practices, diversification of food supply, reductions in food waste, and resilient food supply infrastructure.
- Investment in resilient production practices: risks to food production (domestic and international) are one of the key vulnerabilities of the UK’s food supply to climate impacts. Agricultural adaptations improve food security by building longer term resilience into the production system (for example, from pests and diseases) and reducing the likelihood of simultaneous disruptions globally due to climate shocks.
- Diversification of food supply chains: diversifying food, fertiliser, feed, and fuel supply chains at every stage can spread risk and build resilience during short-term climate shocks. This means higher supply is maintained than otherwise if production in one region fails. This is especially important for avoiding single points of failure (such as international transport bottlenecks) which can have significant impacts on food prices.
- Reductions in food waste: globally, 28% of the agricultural land area is used to produce food that is wasted. In the UK, fresh vegetables and fruit account for over a third of total waste. This provides a clear opportunity to improve efficiency and resilience since fresh produce supply is particularly exposed to climate risk. Reducing food waste aligns with our Seventh Carbon Budget advice.
- Resilient food supply infrastructure: necessary transport and storage infrastructure across food supply chains should be resilient to climate impacts. For example, almost half of the food and beverages produced and sold by UK manufacturers consist of chilled or frozen products, worth around £50 billion per year. However, cold chains can fail during periods of intense heat, risking business viability and consumer safety. Designing for a 40°C ambient temperature offers significant resilience for maintaining food at a safe temperature.
These adaptation actions are connected with adaptation in the land system, the sea system, the transport system, and in the economy and finance system.
Global markets: stress-testing global commodity markets, and assess need for centralised national stockpiling of critical food supplies.
- Stress-testing global commodity markets: systemic stress-testing of global commodity markets (including fertiliser, feed, and fuel) and the UK’s ability to respond to shocks under different scenarios can help ensure the UK food system is strong enough to withstand severe climate scenarios. This requires identifying the key points of failure in the system then responding with appropriate contingency measures. Simultaneously engaging industry in preparedness response will buffer against more disruptive or combined global climate shocks.
- Assess the need for centralised national stockpiling of critical food supplies: several countries maintain emergency national or regional food reserves to stabilise supply during climate disasters, buffer national food price shocks, and soften disruptions in trade due to export bans. The UK Government currently encourages decentralised stockpiling of supplies at a household level.
These adaptation actions are connected with adaptation in the economy and finance system.
Enablers
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Data and monitoring processes: for improved information on climate risk across commodities and growing regions at a global and national level.
Improved information on climate risk under different warming scenarios and across commodities and growing regions is needed for both businesses and government to make informed adaptation decisions. Across food supply chains, priority climate risks can be identified by the private sector through comprehensive risk mapping and assessment. These can then inform the right adaptation decisions through strategic resilience planning.
Engagement, awareness, and support: collaboration between supply chain actors and government to improve availability of climate-related supply information.
Collaboration between supply chain actors and with government (within competition law and commercial confidentiality) can improve collective traceability and availability of climate-related supply information. This includes through data sharing and transparency initiatives.
Policies
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Information provision: climate risk information from government is available to the market, following stress-testing of the system.
Sharing information on climate risks and the UK’s exposure with industry enables better preparation for climate shocks. Industry would be able to assess their ability to deliver under different climate scenarios, make informed adaptation decisions, and potentially co-develop a response with government. Government could also have a role in facilitating more strategic and joined-up thinking across the food sector, within competition law.
Reporting and disclosure requirements: to ensure businesses have conducted climate risk assessment and transition plans are in place.
This would help to ensure that sufficient industry plans for adaptation are in place. This could include providing guidance for climate risk assessments, and designing and deploying climate adaption action plans, as well as education and training on mapping and addressing priority risks. The Welsh Government already offers such training to food businesses. Mapping and assessing climate risk across food supply chains can identify the priority risks and inform the right adaptation decisions via climate resilience action plans.
International collaboration: to strengthen food trade and promote global action on resilient agricultural practices.
International trade agreements that include food can help to avoid barriers to importing food from producing regions during climate and other shocks. More sustainable and resilient farming practices around the world, strengthened through multilateral engagement and international aid, will also boost overall food security and indirectly improve the resilience of key food imports to the UK.
Social policies: support to vulnerable groups could alleviate the impacts of food inflation.
Higher and more volatile prices may have to be accepted as an impact of climate change on the UK food system. Targeted support for purchasing food that mirrors existing schemes in other sectors such as the Winter Fuel Allowance, the Warm Homes Discount, and Cold Weather Payments which are specifically directed at price volatility, could be assessed by the government. Maintaining a strategic national reserve of critical food supplies could be another way to manage temporary price spikes.