Chapter 2 of the CCRA Evidence Report describes the approach taken and theory behind the assessment.
The aim of the second Evidence Report is to address a single, specific question about the urgency of further action to tackle current and future risks, and realise opportunities, arising from climate change:
“Based on the latest understanding of current, and future, climate risks/opportunities, vulnerability and adaptation, what should the priorities be for the next UK National Adaptation Programme and adaptation programmes of the devolved administrations?”
In answering this question, the method used to compile the Evidence Report involved assessing each risk or opportunity in three steps:
- Step 1: Understand present-day vulnerability and assess current climate-related risks, opportunities and levels of adaptation.
- Step 2: Understand future vulnerability and adaptation, and assess how climate and socio-economic change may alter climate-related risks and opportunities in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s (where these timescales are relevant).
- Step 3: Prioritise risks and opportunities for which additional action is needed in the next five years to manage the risk or take advantage of the opportunity.
The Evidence Report uses the concept of urgency to summarise the findings of the analysis. One of four ‘urgency categories’ has been assigned by the ASC to each risk and opportunity. The urgency scoring in turn is based on the evidence provided by the chapter authors.
The second CCRA is underpinned by a large body of peer-reviewed scientific literature and grey literature about climate change and its associated impacts.
The analysis is supplemented by four research projects commissioned by the ASC to assess future climate impacts upon flood risk, water availability, the goods and benefits provided by the UK’s natural assets and an assessment of high-end climate change scenarios.
The whole assessment has been reviewed by an independent group of technical peer reviewers, government stakeholders and non-government reviewers.
Lead contributors: Rachel Warren (Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia)
Contributing authors: Paul Watkiss (Paul Watkiss Associates), Rob Wilby (University of Loughborough), Kathryn Humphrey (ASC Secretariat), Nicola Ranger (Grantham Institute), Richard Betts (Met Office Hadley Centre), Jason Lowe (Met Office Hadley Centre), Glenn Watts (Environment Agency)