Chapter 1 of the CCRA Evidence Report introduces the report and provides an update of the latest scientific evidence of observed and projected climate change for the UK.
Chapter 1 provides the policy context for the CCRA; compares the approach for this assessment with the first CCRA published in 2012; and defines what is meant by risk:
In this report, ‘risk’ is taken to mean ‘the potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain’. The choice of risks and opportunities presented reflects those thought to have the potential for most damage or benefit to the UK and have a reasonable chance of occurring.
The chapter also updates our latest understanding of current and future climate change for the UK.
- Annual average UK land temperature increased by 0.9°C in 2005 – 2014 compared to 1961 – 1990, with 2014 being the warmest individual year.
- Annual rainfall over Scotland has increased since 1970, to a level more than 10% above the average observed during the early decades of the 20th
- UK sea level has risen at a best-estimate rate of 1.4mm/year since 1901, which is close to the estimated rate for global sea level.
- Warming by 2081-2100 is likely to lie in the range 1.4-3.2°C under the scenario with the highest level of greenhouse gas mitigation, whereas for the highest emissions scenario, the corresponding range is 3.4 – 6.2°C.
Lead contributors: Kathryn Humphrey (ASC Secretariat), James Murphy (Met Office Hadley Centre)
Contributing authors: Glen Harris, Simon Brown, Jason Lowe, Mark McCarthy, (Met Office Hadley Centre), Svetlana Jevrejeva (National Oceanography Centre), Glenn Watts (Environment Agency), Daniel Johns (ASC Secretariat), Matthew Bell (Committee on Climate Change)