1. Outline
This report is an external piece of analysis commissioned by the CCC from Newcastle University to help inform the CCC’s Seventh Carbon Budget advice. The analysis synthesises research into reasonable worst-case weather conditions for GB power generation, and suggests historical weather years that can be used as stress tests in energy system modelling. It takes into account both how the energy system is expected to change in future, and the potential effects of a changing climate.
This report reflects the views of Newcastle University and does not represent the views of the CCC.
2. Key messages
The key messages of this report are:
- The energy system will become more weather-sensitive over time, due to the electrification of the economy and the rapid increases in wind and solar generation.
- The amount of non-renewable energy the system will need to find (the difference between demand and renewable generation) will decrease in future power systems, given the expected expansion of renewables capacity.
- The 83 historical weather years analysed in this research have a good coverage of possible climate conditions the present-day and future power systems could experience. In the present-day, the mid-2030s, and 2050 power system scenarios, a 1987 weather year is the most appropriate choice for a 1-in-20 year one year stress test and 2010 for a 1-in-50 one year stress test.
- Anticipated changes in energy system composition (namely, the electrification of the economy and increases in installed renewable generation) have a much larger impact on management of the future energy system than changes in surface temperatures and wind speed expected under a changing climate.
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