COP28: Key outcomes and next steps for the UK

Published:
30 January 2024

Type of publication:
Briefing note

Topics:
Climate science and international action

1.2 UK leadership on international climate

The UK has a strong domestic record of role modelling climate ambition, for instance through setting the UK’s Net Zero target in 2019. UK domestic action remains world-leading in some respects, and there was some progress in UK climate policy in 2023. However, the Committee’s assessment is that the UK Government has not brought enough policy forward to meet the UK’s 2030 NDC and Sixth Carbon Budget and recent domestic policy decisions have sent mixed signals to the international community.

Bolstered by a generally positive domestic record, the UK has historically had a strong international reputation and visible role in advocating for global ambition. The UK is still in the process of defining its post-EU, post-COP Presidency role in UNFCCC negotiations (Box 1.8) and its present actions and choices have large potential to shape its future international standing. At COP28, the first cycle of the Paris Agreement ratchet mechanism concluded and the international community now looks to set new 2035 NDCs in advance of COP30 in 2025. The UK has the opportunity to use the experience gained from hosting COP26 to continue to set ambitious domestic goals, follow through with domestic delivery, and support the international community to do the same.

This section reviews the UK’s contribution to COP28 and recommends how the UK should contribute to global climate action at the domestic and international levels. It is set out as follows:

1.2.1 Summary of UK progress at COP28
1.2.2 Next steps for the UK

Box 1.8 UK negotiations alliances
At COPs, countries are members of blocs that create shared negotiation positions. In 2023, the UK Government joined the Umbrella Group, a loose coalition of non-EU developed countries including the US and Australia and middle-income countries including Kazakhstan and Ukraine. The Group’s statement at the end of COP28 welcomed the negotiated outcome on issues including the Loss and Damage Fund and 2035 NDCs, and offered praise for the agreed language on fossil fuels in energy systems alongside suggestions that it could have gone further. The statement also looked forward to COP29 discussions on new finance goals; it suggested that countries’ responsibilities for delivering finance and support to developing countries should be reassessed, with many countries’ economies having changed substantially since these responsibilities were first assigned in 1992. The UK is also a member of the Cartegena Dialogue, a group of developed and developing countries committed to ambitious climate action. It has previously been involved in the High Ambition Coalition, a group of countries coordinated by the Marshall Islands that advocate for faster and deeper emissions cuts, but it has not been cited as a signatory to recent Coalition public statements. Source: Australian Ministry of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (2023) COP28 Umbrella Group Closing Statement.

Box 1.8

UK negotiations alliances

At COPs, countries are members of blocs that create shared negotiation positions. In 2023, the UK Government joined the Umbrella Group, a loose coalition of non-EU developed countries including the US and Australia and middle-income countries including Kazakhstan and Ukraine. The Group’s statement at the end of COP28 welcomed the negotiated outcome on issues including the Loss and Damage Fund and 2035 NDCs, and offered praise for the agreed language on fossil fuels in energy systems alongside suggestions that it could have gone further. The statement also looked forward to COP29 discussions on new finance goals; it suggested that countries’ responsibilities for delivering finance and support to developing countries should be reassessed, with many countries’ economies having changed substantially since these responsibilities were first assigned in 1992.

The UK is also a member of the Cartegena Dialogue, a group of developed and developing countries committed to ambitious climate action. It has previously been involved in the High Ambition Coalition, a group of countries coordinated by the Marshall Islands that advocate for faster and deeper emissions cuts, but it has not been cited as a signatory to recent Coalition public statements.

Source: Australian Ministry of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (2023) COP28 Umbrella Group Closing Statement.

1.2.1 Summary of UK progress at COP28

The UK Government had a strong presence at COP28, with the UK co-leading consultations on the Global Stocktake negotiations. However, the broader picture on UK international climate action and its interaction with COP28 is not straightforward. The Prime Minister’s Net Zero speech in September 2023, and decisions to approve a new coal mine and license new oil and gas production have contributed to a perception of slowing UK climate ambition by members of the international community. This is despite subsequent positive policy announcements, including the Zero Emissions Vehicle mandate, increasing the support for the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, and the commitment to a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

To be able to advocate for high climate ambition as effectively as possible, the UK should continue to have an active and visible presence at COPs, and ensure it accompanies strong domestic climate policy with communications outputs that acknowledge this progress.

Internationally, through UNFCCC processes and initiatives outside of the negotiations, the UK continues to provide leadership in areas such as:

Leading negotiation agendas. The UK co-led Global Stocktake negotiations with Singapore, one of the COP28 priority agenda items, which produced ambitious text as outlined in Section 1.1.1.
Climate finance. The UK Government announced a package of ICF support, such as such as the $2 billion pledge to the Green Climate Fund. It is also progressing new and innovative funding arrangements, such as climate resilient debt clauses to support countries’ economic resilience after climate crises.^[12],[13]
- Loss and damage funding. £60 million was pledged to loss and damage, including £40 million for the Loss and Damage Fund and £20 million for funding arrangements, a positive demonstration of the UK’s support for loss and damage action.^[14]
- Coalition of Ambition on Adaptation Finance. Developed through the Climate and Development Ministerial and co-hosted by the COP28 Presidency, Malawi, the UK and Vanuatu, the Coalition will enhance country-owned programme financing, easing access to adaptation finance and scaling all sources of adaptation.^[15]
Sectoral initiatives. Following on from the UK’s COP26 Presidency and the launch of many sector initiatives, the UK Government is taking a leading role in driving forward delivery of international climate commitments through sectoral initiatives. These include the Breakthrough Agenda, Powering Past Coal Alliance, Clean Energy Transition Partnership, the ZEV Transition Council and Accelerating to Zero Coalition, and the £500 million pledged to the Investment in Forests and Sustainable Land use programme (see Box 1.2).
Food and water. The UK will provide £10 million to scale up a partnership with the World Bank to boost climate-resilient farming practices around the world.^[16]
Viet Nam Just Energy Transition Partnership. Co-led by the UK and EU, the International Partners Group to Vietnam’s Just Energy Transition Partnership is supporting Viet Nam to deliver its 2050 Net Zero goal. As referenced in Section 1.1.3, Viet Nam announced the Resource Mobilisation Plan, which will help implement the Just Energy Transition Partnership through assessing priority investments and projects.^[17]

1.2.2 Next steps for the UK

The UK Government has an opportunity to build on its history of positive climate leadership and leverage its strong climate governance arrangements to deliver against the outcomes of the Global Stocktake, demonstrate global best practice and support transition in emerging and developing countries. These opportunities span both domestic and international policy:

Domestic opportunities for climate leadership. Despite its status as a relatively small major economy, the UK has had disproportionate ability to influence global climate progress through demonstrating best practice. The following areas offer leadership opportunities for the UK following COP28.
- Box 1.8 assesses the UK’s historic progress and current targets against key elements of the energy package in the Global Stocktake: the tripling of renewable energy capacity, doubling rates of energy efficiency by 2030, and the call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. The following actions will be important for ensuring domestic action is consistent with the language the UK signed up to at COP28:
  - Delivering rapid deployment of renewables. There is delivery uncertainty around the Government’s renewables deployment timescales, although the government is taking steps to address this. Solar and onshore wind are progressing too slowly due to barriers around planning and consenting, and access to network connections, despite being the cheapest forms of generation. The 2023 Contracts for Difference (CfD) auction round also failed to procure any new offshore wind capacity. However, the Government has recently published a Connections Action Plan and Transmission Acceleration Action Plan to speed up the delivery of energy infrastructure and their implementation should be a priority.^[18],[19] The Government has also increased the price ceilings for all technologies in the next CfD auction round in 2024, including a 66% increase to the offshore wind price ceiling.^[20]A solar deployment roadmap expected in 2024 and recent changes to planning rules for onshore wind also have potential to bring deployment trajectories back on track.
  - Limit expansion of future fossil fuel production. UK policy on future oil and gas production should be aligned with Global Stocktake calls to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. The Committee recognises UK fossil fuel production is declining and that new fossil fuel development within UK borders has minimal impact on UK carbon budgets. However, were all countries with fossil fuel reserves to increase future fossil fuel production, there would be an oversupply that would pose a risk to the aims of the Paris Agreement. As a developed country with a binding commitment to transition to Net Zero, the UK should reassess whether further exploration for new sources of fossil fuels is aligned with the UNFCCC principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibility and the Global Stocktake.
- Adaptation. The requirements under the new Framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation go beyond the UK’s current National Adaptation Programme (NAP3) which is not explicitly gender-responsive, did not go through consultation, and does not include additional commitments for public engagement on adaptation planning or actions. The current NAP3 does not yet include a monitoring and evaluation system, which is also now required by the Framework. The UK Government should deliver on these new commitments from COP28 by updating NAP3 within the current policy cycle to ensure it fulfils the targets within the Framework on the GGA.
- Tree planting and peatland restoration. The UK is advocating for ambitious international afforestation and reforestation and providing funding towards these efforts. However, the rates of domestic tree planting and peatland restoration have been too slow and urgently require scaling up to meet UK emissions reduction targets.
- Methane. The UK is falling behind on introducing an all-sector methane target. UK methane emissions predominantly come from agriculture and waste, with smaller contributions from fuel supply and land use. The UK must commit to a 30% reduction in methane emissions by 2030 against a 2020 baseline. Domestic policy should be brought forward, such as introducing a target to capture a proportion of landfill methane emissions, shifting to low-carbon agricultural practices and lowering ruminant livestock numbers, and strengthening targets for methane flaring and venting.
- 2030 NDC. In 2024, the UK must continue to focus on addressing delivery gaps to the 2030 NDC, whilst also determining the level of ambition for its 2035 NDC. The 2023 Progress Report found that, if the UK is to achieve its 2030 NDC, the rate of emissions reduction outside electricity supply must almost quadruple from 1.2% annual reductions to 4.7%. Addressing these gaps and demonstrating best practice on timely, transparent policy implementation to meet emissions reduction targets remains one of the most important avenues for the UK to show climate leadership.
- 2035 NDC. The CCC will offer its recommendations on the 2035 NDC as part of its Seventh Carbon Budget advice, taking into account the levels of emissions reduction implied in the Sixth Carbon Budget and considering how emissions from International Aviation and Shipping can be incorporated into the target.
- Transparency. The UK should continue to demonstrate leadership through transparently communicating and reporting on UK domestic climate action to the UNFCCC. Key opportunities include demonstrating best practice compliance with the Paris Agreement’s Enhanced Transparency Framework and submitting a timely Biennial Transparency Report in 2024.

Box 1.9 Applying Global Stocktake energy outcomes to a UK context
This box examines three areas for energy action from the Global Stocktake outcome in a UK context: the tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030, the doubling of the rate of energy efficiency by 2030, and the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. Tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030 The COP28 text that calls on countries to contribute efforts to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 does not specify a baseline for this target or include a definition for what constitutes renewable energy. In assessing the compatibility of UK renewables deployment targets with a 2030 tripling of capacity, we assume a 2022 baseline (the most recent year with full data available) and focus on offshore wind, onshore wind, and solar PV. The UK Government only has renewables deployment targets for offshore wind (aiming for up to 50 GW by 2030) and solar PV (aiming for up to 70 GW by 2035). Figure B1.9 contrasts the level of deployment implied by a tripling on 2022 levels with UK targets. For offshore wind deployment, the 2030 target of 50 GW represents more than a tripling on 2022 levels. For solar PV, the UK Government has a 2035 target which makes a direct comparison difficult. However, if we assume that UK solar PV deployment grows linearly from 2022 to meet the 2035 target, 2030 solar capacity will be more than triple 2022 levels (almost 49 GW compared to a tripling to 44 GW). There is no UK Government target for future onshore wind deployment. To summarise, UK targets for offshore wind and solar PV are broadly consistent with COP28 calls to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. However, a tripling of total renewable energy capacity (on 2022 levels) would also require growth in onshore wind. The 2023 Progress Report showed that the Government is currently off-track to meeting its renewables targets, particularly for solar PV deployment. To support the ambitions agreed on by countries including the UK in the COP28 text and to meet the target of a decarbonised electricity supply by 2035, the Government must increase efforts to deliver against its existing targets on time. Doubling of rates of energy efficiency by 2030 The Global Stocktake text on doubling of rates of energy efficiency by 2030 also lacks an agreed baseline. However, the UK is unlikely to double its rate of energy efficiency by 2030 against any recent past baseline. This is because the UK is relatively advanced in its decarbonisation journey and has been delivering energy efficiency improvements across the economy at an average rate of 3.5% a year since 1990. Much of the low-hanging fruit is gone (such as coal-to-renewables switching which avoids losing energy to heat) and further increases are expected to come from the electrification of end-uses of energy, such as transport and heat. It is possible, given the energy efficiency improvements already made, that rates of improvement may start to fall in future years. Further analysis will be required if this occurs, but this would not necessarily signify a backwards step for the UK and may simply reflect how much has already been done. However, there are further opportunities to ensure energy is being used efficiently in the UK economy by reducing energy use, particularly in the buildings sector. Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems The Global Stocktake calls on countries to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. The UK Government’s overarching commitment to decarbonise the electricity system by 2035 (with the interim ambition of a 95% low-carbon grid by 2030) is in keeping with the Global Stocktake language. However, the language agreed at COP28 does call into question recent UK Government decisions on the production of fossil fuels. The implications for UK fossil fuel production are explored further in the main text of section 1.2.2. Source: Climate Change Committee (2023) Progress in reducing emissions: 2023 Report to Parliament; UK Government (2020) British energy security strategy.

Box 1.9

Applying Global Stocktake energy outcomes to a UK context

This box examines three areas for energy action from the Global Stocktake outcome in a UK context: the tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030, the doubling of the rate of energy efficiency by 2030, and the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.

Tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030

The COP28 text that calls on countries to contribute efforts to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 does not specify a baseline for this target or include a definition for what constitutes renewable energy. In assessing the compatibility of UK renewables deployment targets with a 2030 tripling of capacity, we assume a 2022 baseline (the most recent year with full data available) and focus on offshore wind, onshore wind, and solar PV.

The UK Government only has renewables deployment targets for offshore wind (aiming for up to 50 GW by 2030) and solar PV (aiming for up to 70 GW by 2035). Figure B1.9 contrasts the level of deployment implied by a tripling on 2022 levels with UK targets. For offshore wind deployment, the 2030 target of 50 GW represents more than a tripling on 2022 levels. For solar PV, the UK Government has a 2035 target which makes a direct comparison difficult. However, if we assume that UK solar PV deployment grows linearly from 2022 to meet the 2035 target, 2030 solar capacity will be more than triple 2022 levels (almost 49 GW compared to a tripling to 44 GW). There is no UK Government target for future onshore wind deployment.

To summarise, UK targets for offshore wind and solar PV are broadly consistent with COP28 calls to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. However, a tripling of total renewable energy capacity (on 2022 levels) would also require growth in onshore wind.

The 2023 Progress Report showed that the Government is currently off-track to meeting its renewables targets, particularly for solar PV deployment. To support the ambitions agreed on by countries including the UK in the COP28 text and to meet the target of a decarbonised electricity supply by 2035, the Government must increase efforts to deliver against its existing targets on time.

Doubling of rates of energy efficiency by 2030

The Global Stocktake text on doubling of rates of energy efficiency by 2030 also lacks an agreed baseline. However, the UK is unlikely to double its rate of energy efficiency by 2030 against any recent past baseline. This is because the UK is relatively advanced in its decarbonisation journey and has been delivering energy efficiency improvements across the economy at an average rate of 3.5% a year since 1990. Much of the low-hanging fruit is gone (such as coal-to-renewables switching which avoids losing energy to heat) and further increases are expected to come from the electrification of end-uses of energy, such as transport and heat.

It is possible, given the energy efficiency improvements already made, that rates of improvement may start to fall in future years. Further analysis will be required if this occurs, but this would not necessarily signify a backwards step for the UK and may simply reflect how much has already been done. However, there are further opportunities to ensure energy is being used efficiently in the UK economy by reducing energy use, particularly in the buildings sector.

Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems

The Global Stocktake calls on countries to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. The UK Government’s overarching commitment to decarbonise the electricity system by 2035 (with the interim ambition of a 95% low-carbon grid by 2030) is in keeping with the Global Stocktake language.

However, the language agreed at COP28 does call into question recent UK Government decisions on the production of fossil fuels. The implications for UK fossil fuel production are explored further in the main text of section 1.2.2.

Source: Climate Change Committee (2023) Progress in reducing emissions: 2023 Report to Parliament; UK Government (2020) British energy security strategy.

International opportunities for climate leadership. The 2023 Strategic Framework set out impressive aims for the UK’s international climate efforts and the UK can build on its achievements at COP28 in the following areas to ensure that these aims are translated into action:
- The UK Government has valuable expertise in providing effective climate finance and its funding announcements at COP28 showed considerable breadth. Going forwards, the UK should strive to demonstrate best practice, ensuring that the recent International Climate Finance accounting changes do not result in a de facto decrease in ambition regarding the £11.6 billion target and transparently reporting against its commitment to triple adaptation financing by 2025.[*In 2023 the UK Government announced changes in the way they account for International Climate Finance (the part of Official Development Assistance aid that is spent on climate). These accounting changes mean that International Climate Finance figures will now include climate-relevant contributions to multilateral development banks, risking double-counting when climate finance figures are globally aggregated. This change is not expected to be seen as a breach of the rules by the OECD Development Assistance Committee.] In 2024, the UK Government should carefully consider what it can bring to the table for post-2025 climate finance and continue to use its influence as a World Bank shareholder and its international convening power to advance discussions on financial architecture reform.
- Pledges and initiatives. The UK has continued to contribute to efforts on pledges and initiatives launched at COP26, drawing on its officials and collaborating with other countries to ensure that progress is made. However, reporting of this progress remains piecemeal and difficult to track, with external analyses (by organisations such as the IEA and the Energy Transitions Commission) providing the only collective assessments of what has been done. The UK Government must do more to summarise progress made against UK-led and aided initiatives in an accessible, transparent way.
- COPs. The UK Government should continue to have an active and visible presence at COPs. Key priorities for future summits include having a strong ministerial complement, highlighting UK collaboration with developing and emerging economies (through UK Pavilion events and elsewhere), and enacting impactful coordination on high-ambition outcomes both inside and outside the UNFCCC negotiations.

1.2.3 The Committee

The Climate Change Act (2008) requires the CCC and UK Government to consider international and scientific circumstances in relation to UK climate goals, in recognition of the importance of global action to avoid dangerous levels of climate change. The Committee sees the consideration of international climate progress as an important tool in providing enriched advice on UK climate action. We look at the international factors that affect domestic climate progress, including the latest climate trends and developments in scientific understanding, global technology progress and policy shifts in other countries, and analyse the UK’s contributions to global efforts to limit warming. The Committee assesses UK international climate action twice a year: first through a focused look at UK action at the COP in the COP key outcomes briefings, and secondly through a wider assessment in the Progress Reports to Parliament. Across these documents, we look to highlight UK progress, identify gaps and priority actions, and translate international commitments into trackable UK actions.

These assessments of UK international climate action are also informed by our programme of international engagement. Funded by DESNZ and the UK Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions Programme, the CCC works with national governments, climate councils and research organisations in over 30 countries to share experiences in producing target advice, developing carbon budgets and pathways, assessing climate risk and monitoring progress. The CCC is also part of the International Climate Councils Network (Box 1.10) which acts as a valuable forum for supporting and amplifying the role climate councils play in robust national climate governance. Several members of the Committee attend the COP conferences and it presents an annual opportunity to come together in person with members of the International Climate Councils Network. We also use the opportunities at COP to develop relationships with a wide range of governments, research organisations, NGOs and businesses that inform and support the Committee’s domestic and international analysis.

A key part of the Committee’s role is to provide advice to Government on the level of UK carbon budgets and climate risks. CCC advice on the Seventh Carbon Budget in early 2025 will account for the Paris Agreement principles for countries’ efforts to reflect their highest possible ambition and capabilities. It will consider the latest scientific evidence on climate change and international climate progress and developments in key low-carbon technologies.

The CCC’s Independent Assessment of Climate Risk for the Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment (due in 2026) will consider future changes in the climate consistent with the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report global warming levels. It will also consider climate risks to the UK from hazards and climate impacts overseas, including indirect stressors which may contribute to or compound UK climate risks.

Box 1.10 International Climate Councils Network
The International Climate Councils Network was launched at COP26 in 2021 by 20 Climate Councils, including the UK Climate Change Committee. Climate councils are independent advisory bodies that have a role in advising Governments on climate change action. The International Climate Council Network’s mission is to foster collaboration between existing Climate Councils and act as a focal point for other governments interested in strengthening their national climate governance through the introduction of expert and independent advisors. At COP28, the International Climate Councils Network announced that it is working in partnership with climate change organisation E3G to establish a secretariat. This partnership was made possible through the generous support of the European Climate Foundation and contributions from members of the Network. The new secretariat is part of the next phase of development for the Network, facilitating deeper and more diverse collaboration between members and coordinating efforts to share expertise with new and potential climate councils. Source: E3G (2023) Announcement of new ICCN Secretariat to be hosted by E3G.

Box 1.10

International Climate Councils Network

The International Climate Councils Network was launched at COP26 in 2021 by 20 Climate Councils, including the UK Climate Change Committee. Climate councils are independent advisory bodies that have a role in advising Governments on climate change action. The International Climate Council Network’s mission is to foster collaboration between existing Climate Councils and act as a focal point for other governments interested in strengthening their national climate governance through the introduction of expert and independent advisors.

At COP28, the International Climate Councils Network announced that it is working in partnership with climate change organisation E3G to establish a secretariat. This partnership was made possible through the generous support of the European Climate Foundation and contributions from members of the Network. The new secretariat is part of the next phase of development for the Network, facilitating deeper and more diverse collaboration between members and coordinating efforts to share expertise with new and potential climate councils.

Source: E3G (2023) Announcement of new ICCN Secretariat to be hosted by E3G.

Contents

1.2 UK leadership on international climate

1.2.1 Summary of UK progress at COP28

1.2.2 Next steps for the UK

1.2.3 The Committee