COP28: Key outcomes and next steps for the UK

Executive summary

2023 was the warmest year on record and CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels are at their highest ever level.^[1],[2] Against this backdrop, the negotiations at COP28 in Dubai made some important advances in efforts to coordinate and deliver global climate action through the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake, the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund, the new Framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation, and others. Our Committee’s report sets out the key outcomes from COP28 and assesses the UK’s role and next steps.

• The Global Stocktake undertaken at COP28 marks the first formal assessment of progress of the Paris Agreement process, delivering an inventory of climate action to identify gaps and inform solutions. The results show that, while progress has been made following the Paris Agreement, actions at a global level remain far behind that which is urgently needed across emissions reduction, adaptation, and the finance required to underpin these.
• The Global Stocktake reinforced the growing momentum in renewables and other low-carbon technology deployment. Countries were called upon to support a trebling of renewables globally and to double the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. Alongside this was the crucial brokering of recognition of the need to transition away from all fossil fuels to achieve a Net Zero energy system by 2050 as well as to undertake rapid action to reduce methane emissions.
• The critical role of natural systems in tackling climate change was reinforced through linking to the 2022 Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. This continued to bring international attention to the importance of preserving and restoring ecosystems on land and in the oceans.
• The agreement to operationalise the Loss and Damage Fund created the previous year at COP27 demonstrates that the UN climate negotiations can rapidly work to establish new instruments to help address climate impacts. However, the $700 million presently pledged to the Fund is well below the expected need.
• The new Framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation is an important step forwards in an area that has received less attention in previous COP negotiations. The framework sets out thematic targets for what global adaptation efforts should be seeking to achieve alongside process targets which should help support improved adaptation policy development. These will be further developed through a new two-year work programme on indicators for measuring progress on adaptation.
• The gap in finance remains a major barrier to accelerating action across all areas. The Global Stocktake recognised the need for multitrillion-dollars of investment globally and lends support to the proposals and ongoing efforts to better leverage a wide range of finance mechanisms to unlock financing at this scale.

The UK played an important role in facilitating the negotiations at COP28. It pledged financial support for both mitigation and adaptation initiatives and continued its strong backing of key initiatives.

• The UK’s commitment to its ambitious 2030 emissions target, progress in decarbonising the power sector, and new low-carbon measures such as the Zero Emissions Vehicle mandate provide a powerful example of transitioning away from fossil fuels. The effectiveness of the UK’s underpinning climate governance framework and its strength in climate diplomacy is widely recognised.
• However, the Prime Minister’s Net Zero speech in September 2023, was reported widely around the world. Coupled with UK decisions to approve a new coal mine and license new oil and gas production, it contributed to a perception of slowing UK climate ambition among COP28 delegates. Strong, consistent domestic policy and communications on climate that avoid mixed messaging are crucial to be able to robustly advocate for high climate ambition internationally.

The Global Stocktake marks the midway point in the five-year cycle of the Paris Agreement. Focus will now turn, via COP29 in Azerbaijan, towards countries developing their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) emissions reduction pledges for 2035. These are due for submission to the UN in early 2025 ahead of COP30 in Brazil. The upcoming round of NDCs will be submitted in the context of a world approaching 1.5°C warming and experiencing worsening climate impacts, but potentially turning the corner to begin reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The UK can continue to lead by example and support actions elsewhere to accelerate the pace of the low-carbon transition and develop resilience to climate impacts. It must demonstrate delivery towards its ambitious 2030 and 2035 targets on the path to Net Zero, set a clear plan to reduce methane across all sectors this decade, and strengthen the National Adaptation Programme to fully align with the Framework on the Global Goal on Adaptation.

• The CCC’s forthcoming UK Seventh Carbon Budget advice, due to be published in early 2025, will also consider the 2035 NDC. The Fourth Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk, due in 2026, will also support the UK to continue the journey to achieving a resilient Net Zero future.
• The CCC will continue to support and contribute towards the UK’s international climate action objectives. Through its membership of the International Climate Councils Network, established at COP26, the CCC works closely with equivalent climate advice organisations around the world to provide support and share learnings on effective approaches to common challenges. The CCC also provides support to international partners in carbon budgets and climate risk and adaptation assessment through the UK Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions programme.