Progress in reducing emissions in Scotland – 2023 Report to Parliament

Executive summary

The Scottish Government is failing to achieve Scotland’s ambitious climate goals. Annual emissions targets have repeatedly been missed and the publication of Scotland’s draft Climate Change Plan has been delayed. As such, there is still no comprehensive delivery strategy for meeting future emissions targets and actions continue to fall far short of what is legally required.

The Scottish Government has ambitious targets and a welcome and necessary recognition of the importance of public engagement and a just transition. Now it is time to deliver. There are some early signs of good progress, including bold proposals in the Heat in Buildings consultation that, once agreed, must be delivered promptly and effectively to ensure Scotland can get as close as possible to meeting its targets.

In this report we monitor Scotland’s progress in reducing emissions and assess the policies in place for delivering future emissions reduction. As a result of the Scottish Government delaying the publication of its draft Climate Change Plan, this Climate Change Committee (CCC) report is no longer assessing the draft Plan as was originally planned.

In Annex 1 of this report, and on our website, we set out the CCC’s priority recommendations to the Scottish Government. These focus on the key actions that are needed to turn Scotland’s ambitious targets into effective delivery and achieve the required levels of emissions reduction at the earliest date possible.

Our key messages are:

• Scotland’s annual target was missed again. Scottish emissions in 2021 increased by 2.4% from 2020 as the economy rebounded from the pandemic, and were 49.2% below 1990 levels.^[*] Scotland missed its 2021 annual legal target. This is the eighth target in the past 12 years that has been missed.
• The acceleration required in emissions reduction to meet the 2030 target is now beyond what is credible. The recent rate of emissions reduction outside the electricity supply, aviation and shipping sectors needs to increase by a factor of nine in the nine years from 2021 to 2030, compared to the preceding nine years, if Scotland is to achieve its 2030 target of a 75% reduction compared to 1990 levels.^[**] This rate of reduction is nearly two times higher than that in the CCC’s ambitious pathway for Scotland, which we updated in 2022. Given the pace at which supply chains and investment would need to develop, this rate of reduction is not credible. However, the Scottish Government should build on its high ambition and implement policies that enable the 75% emissions reduction target to be achieved at the earliest date possible.
• Current overall policies and plans in Scotland fall far short of what is needed to achieve the legal targets under the Scottish Climate Change Act. There are risks in all areas with significant policy powers devolved to the Scottish Government (transport, buildings, agriculture, land use and waste). However, the CCC welcomes the Buildings (Scotland) Amendment Regulations prohibiting the use of direct emissions heating systems for new homes, as well as the Heat in Buildings consultation and the strength of its proposals. Many of them, if successfully implemented, could be a template for the rest of the UK. As such, the Scottish Government should provide a timeline and avoid delays on the Heat in Buildings Bill and move towards its delivery.
• The Scottish Government has delayed its draft Climate Change Plan. The 2030 target is only six years away. The Scottish Government did not publish its draft Climate Change Plan in late 2023 as planned. This progress report had been delayed to assess it. At the time of writing, it is still unclear when a draft Plan will be published. Scotland is therefore lacking a comprehensive strategy that outlines the actions and polices required to achieve the 2030 target. The Scottish Government must publish the Plan urgently, with sufficient time to allow for consultation, setting out detail of how policies will work together to deliver the required levels of emissions reduction.
• Most key indicators of delivery progress are off track, with tree planting and peatland restoration rates, heat pump installations, electric van sales and recycling rates significantly so. There has been better progress in renewable electricity generation, with a ramp-up of offshore wind capacity in 2022.
  • By the end of this decade, Scotland will need to: treble the pace of roll-out of public electric vehicle charge points, reduce car traffic by 20%, increase heat pump installation rates by a factor of at least thirteen, and double onshore wind capacity. Woodland creation will need to more than double by the mid-2020s and peatland restoration rates need to increase significantly.
  • The Committee’s recommendations in Annex 1 identify important actions to ensure effective delivery in these and other areas.

The rest of the executive summary is set out in two sections:

1. Emissions changes.
2. Policy and delivery progress and next steps.

^[*] The baseline against which targets are assessed is 1990 emissions for all sectors except fluorinated gases (F-gases), for which 1995 is used.

^[**] This factor of nine increase represents the increase in the average annual percentage reduction in emissions that will be required over 2021-2030, compared to that achieved over 2012-2021.

Emissions changes

Emissions in 2021

• Emissions in 2021 increased by 2.4% compared to 2020 levels to 6 MtCO₂e, which is 49.2% below 1990 levels. This represents a higher reduction in emissions compared to the UK, where 2021 emissions were 47.2% below 1990 levels (Figure 1).
  • The increase in 2021 was driven by an increase in surface transport emissions following the pandemic, and in buildings emissions, with colder than average temperatures contributing to the rise.
• The only sectors in which emissions reduced in 2021 were electricity supply and industry. The emissions reduction in the electricity supply sector was due to reduced gas-fired generation. In the industry sector, the reduction was due to extensive maintenance in oil and gas production.
  • Electricity supply has been the main driver of emissions reduction in Scotland to date, with significant reductions seen in the last decade due to the phase-out of coal and ramp-up of renewables.
• Scotland missed its 2021 annual target of a 51.1% reduction in emissions compared to 1990 levels. Using the ‘base inventory’ accounting methodology (Annex 2), under which targets are assessed, emissions fell by 49.9%. This is the eighth target in the past 12 years that Scotland has missed.

Emissions reduction needs to accelerate

Emissions reduction needs to accelerate in almost all sectors. The overall pace needs to increase by a factor of nine over the nine years from 2021 to 2030, excluding electricity supply, aviation, and shipping emissions, compared to the prior nine years from 2012, if Scotland is to meet its 2030 target of a 75% reduction on 1990 levels (Figure 2).^[*] This is almost a factor of two faster than in the CCC’s highly ambitious 2022 updated pathway for Scotland.

• This will need to come from a rapid increase in the pace of decarbonisation of emitting sectors, as well as a rapid deployment and ramp-up of engineered removals, on which the 2020 Climate Change Plan update (CCPu) and Scotland’s 2030 target depend. A study published by the Scottish Government estimated that only around three-fifths of the engineered removals assumed in the CCPu will be feasible to deploy by 2030.
• The buildings, transport and agriculture sectors will require a particularly rapid increase in the rate of emissions reduction, to meet the emissions envelopes set out in the CCPu. For the buildings sector, the rate will need to increase by nearly a factor of ten over the nine years from 2021 to 2030 compared to that seen in the preceding nine years. This is not a credible increase. It is almost three times higher than in the CCC’s ambitious pathway for Scotland, which we updated in 2022.
• The Scottish Government should implement policies as soon as possible to ensure Scotland reaches the 75% reduction target at the earliest possible date. The next section outlines some of the actions needed to achieve this.

^[*] This assessment is based on emissions data up to 2021, which is the latest full year of final emissions data available for Scotland. Where data are available for more recent years (e.g. on some sectoral indicators), these do not yet show progress at the pace required, so our assessment remains unchanged. Electricity supply emissions were excluded because they have driven the bulk of reductions over this period and have limited potential for further reductions, while aviation and shipping were excluded because their emissions were significantly affected by the pandemic.

Policy and delivery progress and next steps

The Scottish Government had planned to publish its draft Climate Change Plan for consultation in late 2023, laying out quantified plans for emissions reductions. This Progress Report to Parliament was delayed to allow for an assessment of the new Plan. However, the Plan was not published in 2023 and, at the time of writing, a date for its publication has not been announced. Scotland is therefore still missing a coherent, transparent, and quantified plan on how it will meet its stretching 2030 target.

A list of key priority recommendations for the Scottish Government is provided in Annex 1 and on our website. One of these key recommendations (recommendation R2022-402) is that the draft Climate Change Plan should set out more details of how policies will work together to deliver the required emissions reductions. This should be published soon, with sufficient time to allow for a proper consultation. The other key recommendations identify important actions that are needed to turn Scotland’s extremely stretching targets into effective delivery and achieve the required levels of emissions reduction at the earliest date possible.

Most delivery indicators are off track, many significantly so (Figure 3), and overall policy progress has been insufficient over the past year. Only three of the 14 key recommendations from the CCC’s 2022 Scottish Progress Report scored ‘good progress’. Two scored ‘moderate progress’, seven scored ‘some but insufficient progress’, and two made ‘no progress’ at all.

Transport

11.6 MtCO₂e in 2021, required in the CCPu to decrease by 44% by 2030, needing almost a factor of four increase in the annual emissions reduction rate. Transport is the highest emitting sector in Scotland. Some significant policy powers in this sector are devolved to the Scottish Government, especially for demand reduction and modal shift.

Progress has been limited in the past year, with delivery plans now overdue:

• Electric car and van sales are off track, vans significantly so, with 10.5% of new car and 2.0% of new van sales being electric in 2022 (Figures 3a and 3b). Both are lower than for the UK as a whole.
• Charging infrastructure is on track, with almost 4,000 public charge points in 2022 (Figure 3c), although the deployment rate across the rest of the decade will need to nearly treble and reliability must improve. An implementation plan outlining how Scotland will deliver approximately 24,000 charge points by 2030 is needed (recommendation R2022-338).
• Car-kilometres increased in 2021 following the pandemic but remain 6% below 2019 levels (Figure 3d). Scotland has an ambitious target to reduce car-kilometres by 20% from 2019 levels, by 2030. However, a clear strategy on how this will be achieved is still missing (recommendation R2022-332).
• There is no strategy for decarbonising aviation in Scotland (recommendation R2024-004) and no progress in addressing aviation demand growth, with the Air Departure Tax yet to be implemented (recommendation R2022-348).
• The Islands Connectivity Plan is overdue and a plan for meeting the commitment for 30% of Scottish Government-managed ferries to be low-emission by 2032 is still needed (recommendation R2022-342).

Buildings

9.0 MtCO₂e in 2021, required in the CCPu to decrease by 71% by 2030, needing almost a factor of ten increase in the annual emissions reduction rate. Some areas of the buildings sector have significant policy powers devolved to the Scottish Government. The CCC welcomes the Buildings (Scotland) Amendment Regulations and the Scottish Government’s bold proposals for its Heat in Buildings Bill, which, if implemented, could become a template for other parts of the UK. The Heat in Buildings proposals recognise the importance of a long-term plan for low-carbon heat, with a very welcome focus on upgrading properties at the point of sale. There is also greater clarity on the role of low-carbon heat networks and tougher obligations on landlords to upgrade the energy efficiency of their properties.

There is still work needed to ensure the Bill comes into place and is deliverable in practice (recommendation R2024-001).

• There were just over 6,000 domestic heat pump installations in 2023, which is less than half those indicated in the CCC’s pathway. This needs to increase to more than 80,000 per year by the end of the decade (Figure 3e). The point-of-sale switch of heating systems proposed in the Heat in Buildings Bill has potential to significantly accelerate this transition.
• The number of government-funded energy efficiency measures in households in Scotland has fallen to just over 7,600 in 2022, from a peak of more than 71,600 in 2013 (Figure 3f). The Heat in Buildings Bill is consulting on minimum energy efficiency standards for privately owned homes. The measurement of energy performance should be fit for purpose to ensure maximum impact from these standards.
• Scottish Government should finalise plans for decarbonising non-residential buildings, which received less focus in the Heat in Buildings Bill (recommendation R2022-384).

Agriculture and land use

8.2 MtCO₂e in 2021, required in the CCPu to decrease by 11% by 2030, needing a reversal of recent emissions increases. Policy powers in the agriculture and land sector are mostly devolved to the Scottish Government. There has been limited progress in the last year:

• The new Agriculture and Rural Communities (Scotland) Bill was introduced to replace the Common Agricultural Policy but lacks details on the financial support that will be offered to farmers and land managers during the transition. It is not yet clear how future support systems will integrate and address objectives for food, nature, and climate, and provide adequate long-term consistent support for the farming community (recommendation R2022-406).
• With just over eight thousand hectares of new woodland creation in 2022/23, Scotland needs to more than double this rate to reach its target of 18 thousand hectares per year from 2024/25 (Figure 3g). A quarter of approved new woodland was delayed or cancelled, likely due to skills and capacity issues. While £1 million was allocated to boost forestry skills, more is required to overcome all delivery barriers (recommendation R2022-356).
• Scotland has missed its peatland restoration target for the fifth consecutive year (Figure 3h), with the rate needing to nearly triple to reach the Scottish Government’s own target, which is in turn lower in ambition than the CCC’s recommended rate. A comprehensive delivery mechanism to address degraded peatland and extend current restoration ambition beyond the existing timeframe of 2030 is required (recommendation R2022-358).

Waste

1.6 MtCO₂e in 2021, required in the CCPu to decrease by 55% by 2030. Policy powers in the waste sector are mostly devolved to the Scottish Government. There has been some limited progress in the past year:

• Scotland is significantly off track to meet its 2025 70% recycling rate target, with no progress in rates over the last ten years (Figure 3i). The Scottish Government laid the Circular Economy (Scotland) Bill last year, which will provide the legislative framework for targets.
• Waste incineration, including energy from waste, has more than doubled since 2011. While restrictions on new energy from waste facilities set out in National Planning Framework 4 are welcome, stronger action is needed (recommendation R2022-329).

Industry

9.7 MtCO₂e in 2021, required in the CCPu to decrease by 25% by 2030. With most policy powers reserved to the UK Government, co-ordination with the UK Government remains key. There has been some progress in carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS), but there has been minimal progress in other areas of industrial decarbonisation:

• The Acorn CCUS cluster in Scotland was awarded Track 2 status as part of the UK Government CCUS cluster sequencing process, subject to final assessments.
• The Circular Economy Bill will help reduce industrial emissions, but more measures are needed to increase efficiency of resource use, with particular opportunities in construction materials (recommendation R2022-376).

Electricity supply

1.6 MtCO₂e in 2021, required in the CCPu to be zero emissions in 2030. Policy related to electricity supply is mostly reserved to the UK Government but is substantially influenced by devolved policies over planning and consenting of key infrastructure and leasing of offshore sites for renewable generation. There has been some progress in delivering renewable electricity generation in Scotland:

• The Scottish Government aims to develop 8–11 GW of offshore wind capacity and 20 GW of onshore wind capacity, both by 2030. Offshore wind capacity in Scotland grew in the past year, putting it on track compared to the 2030 target (Figure 3j). The growth in onshore wind capacity has slowed, however, and it is slightly off track to deliver its 2030 target, which will require operational capacity to more than double (Figure 3k).
• The Scottish Government consulted on its draft Energy Strategy in January 2023, which included its ambition to deliver more than 20 GW of additional renewable generation capacity by 2030. The final plan due this year should include a delivery plan and the Scottish Government should work with the UK Government on practical measures to ensure both the Scottish targets and the UK-wide objective of a decarbonised electricity system by 2035 are achieved.

Engineered removals

No abatement in 2021, required in the CCPu to be -3.8 MtCO₂e in 2030. Policy powers for engineered removals are mainly reserved to the UK Government. Acorn receiving Track 2 status is positive progress for engineered removals in Scotland, and now the Scottish Government should assess Acorn’s deployment potential against its aim to achieve -3.8 MtCO₂ engineered removals by 2030. A feasibility study published by the Scottish Government estimates potential for only ‑2.2 MtCO₂ by 2030 in Scotland.

Cross-cutting enablers

• Governance: there has been some progress over the past year, with improved relationships between central and local government to deliver Net Zero. However, it is not yet clear what all the roles and responsibilities are, and better coordination of actions across Scottish and UK Governments and local authorities is still needed (recommendation R2024-002).
  • The UK and Scottish Governments need to work together effectively to deliver both Governments’ climate targets. This requires greater transparency in the plans of both, clear responsibilities, and open and frequent consultation between Holyrood and Westminster.
• People and business: the Scottish Government has a welcome and necessary recognition of the importance of public engagement and a just transition. These policy areas have seen some progress, with the draft Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan published in January 2023 and the Heat in Buildings Public Engagement Strategy published in December 2023. However:
  • More should be done to communicate the most impactful ways for people to reduce emissions and to support them to make green choices, including around diet and aviation
    (recommendation R2024-003).
  • Advice, engagement, and financial support are needed for Scottish businesses to improve energy efficiency and adopt low-carbon heating and electric vehicles.